NBA Playoff Picks 5/12 – Timberwolves @ Warriors

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Western Conference Semifinals continue tonight with the No. 6 seed Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33 in the regular season) visiting the No. 7 seed Golden State Warriors (48-34 in the regular season) in Game Four at Chase Center on ESPN. Minnesota defeated undermanned Golden State 102-97 on Saturday in Game Three, and will look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead with a win tonight. Minnesota is a 5.5-point favorite, and the total is 199.5.

SERIES RECAP: GAME ONE

The “rest versus rust” theory was tested in this series between the two lower seeds. The sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves had a surprisingly easy time eliminating the third-seeded Los Angeles Lakers 4-1 in the first-round. They finished off the Lakers on April 30 in Los Angeles. Meanwhile, the seventh-seeded Golden State Warriors needed the full seven games to eliminate the upstart Houston Rockets in round one. Golden State won Game 7 at Houston on May 4, and had one day off before heading to Minnesota to face the Timberwolves in Game 1 on May 6. 

The quick turnaround for Game One did not affect Golden State at all, as they picked up a relatively easy 99-88 win against the favored Timberwolves on the road. Golden State broke open Game One in the second quarter behind a masterful defensive effort where they limited Minnesota to just 11 points, while Golden State scored 26. The Warriors led 46-31 at the half. Minnesota’s 31 first-half points tied them for fourth on the list for fewest points scored in a first-half of a playoff game. 

Unfortunately for Golden State, their outstanding effort in the first-half was dampened due to an injury suffered by superstar guard Steph Curry. Curry exited the game early in the second quarter with a leg injury that was later diagnosed as a Grade 1 left hamstring strain. The Warriors gave an inspired effort in the second-half without Curry as they built a 23-point lead in the third quarter (80-57) and outscored the Timberwolves 36-29 overall in the third frame. 

Golden State led 80-60 heading into the fourth quarter, and were able to hold cold-shooting Minnesota at bay for the rest of the game. Minnesota never got closer than 9 points in the final frame. The Timberwolves shot just 5-of-29 from three-point land in Game One. Curry has not played since suffering the hamstring injury in Game One. He’ll be re-evaluated before Game 5 at Minnesota on May 14. 

Buddy Hield scored a game-high 24 points (7-19 FG, 5-8 3Pt, 5-5 FT) and pulled down 8 rebounds for Golden State in the Game One victory. Jimmy Butler registered a terrific all-around game with 20 points (7-20 FG, 2-8 3Pt, 4-6 FT), 11 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 steals in the win. Draymond Green added 18 points (6-13 FG, 4-10 3Pt, 2-2 FT), 8 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 steals. Anthony Edwards registered 23 points (9-22 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 4-5 FT), 14 rebounds, 3 steals and a block in a losing effort.

GAME TWO RECAP

Game Two saw Minnesota rebound in a major way as they thrashed the Curry-less Warriors 117-93. Minnesota jumped out to a 13-0 lead in Game 2, and never looked back. They stretched the lead to 25-7, and led 29-15 after one quarter of action. Minnesota led 56-39 at the half. Golden State was able to pull within 7 (62-55) after a Buddy Hield three-pointer with 6:57 left in the third quarter, but their spurt was quickly vanquished by Minnesota who went on a 14-2 run to increase the lead to 76-58. The Timberwolves led 85-65 by the end of the third quarter. The game was never in doubt in the fourth quarter.

Julius Randle amassed 24 points (10-17 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 3-3 FT), 11 assists and 7 rebounds for Minnesota in the Game Two victory. Anthony Edwards contributed 20 points (6-13 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 6-8 FT), 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals and a block for Minnesota. Nickeil Alexander-Walker added 20 points (7-13 FG, 4-6 3Pt, 2-2 FT) off the bench. Jonathan Kuminga led Golden State with 18 points (8-11 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 1-4 FT) off the bench. 

GAME THREE RECAP

The series switched venues to San Francisco for Game Three, and the Curry-less Warriors gave a valiant effort but fell 102-97 to Minnesota on Saturday night. The first-half saw a 16-point lead swing as Golden State held an 8-point lead (19-11) in the first quarter, while Minnesota held an 8-point lead (39-31) in the second quarter. Golden State emerged with a 42-40 lead at the half. 

The second half remained nip and tuck with Golden State going up 82-77 with 8:16 remaining in the contest after a pair of Jimmy Butler III free throws. Minnesota went on a 9-0 run to grab a 86-82 lead at the 4:28 mark, and proceeded to finish off a pesky Golden State squad over the final minutes to escape with a win. Julius Randle assisted on five of Minnesota’s final six baskets of the game as he’s become a point forward for Minnesota over the last 2 games. Randle has totaled 23 assists in Games 2 and 3. 

Julius Randle finished Game Three with a triple-double of 24 points (10-23 FG, 1-6 3Pt, 3-3 FT), 12 assists and 10 rebounds. Anthony Edwards registered 36 points (10-23 FG, 1-6 3Pt, 3-3 FT), 4 rebounds and 4 assists in the win. Rudy Gobert added 9 points (2-4 FG, 5-6 FT), 13 rebounds and 4 blocks. Randle was often criticized for coming up short in the playoffs when he played for the Knicks, but he’s redeeming himself in a major way with Minnesota this year. 

Jimmy Butler supplied 33 points (12-26 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 7-9 FT), 7 rebounds and 7 assists for Golden State in the loss. Jonathan Kuminga had another strong game off the bench, finishing with 30 points (11-18 FG, 3-4 3Pt, 5-6 FT), 6 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 blocks. Kuminga has seen an uptick in his minutes since Steph Curry’s hamstring injury in Game 1. He’s played very well averaging 24 ppg in Games 2 and 3. 

HOW BOTH TEAMS GOT HERE: MINNESOTA

After making the decision to part ways with franchise icon Kevin Garnett following the 2006-07 season, the Minnesota went through about 15 years of abysmal basketball. They suffered through 10 straight losing seasons and only made one playoff appearance (2017-18) in the 14 seasons after Garnett was traded. Minnesota landed the No. 1 overall pick twice during their abysmal post-Garnett run. They selected Karl-Anthony Towns No. 1 overall in 2015, and Anthony Edwards first in 2020.

The additions of Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards led to a revival in Minnesota as both players quickly became All-Star caliber performers. The excellent play of Towns and Edwards, along with the acquisition of three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert in July 2022, resulted in a 56-26 last season and a trip to the Western Conference Finals. Minnesota had not achieved that level of success since the 2003-04 season, when they won 58 games and also advanced to the Western Conference Finals behind the efforts of 2004 Most Valuable Player Kevin Garnett.

Shortly before the 2024-25 season, Minnesota made the stunning move to trade All-Star big man Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks. The move shocked the NBA world because of the tremendous success Minnesota has last year. It was rumored that ownership felt Towns’ 4-year, $220 million contract — which was set to begin this year — would cripple Minnesota’s ability to make ancillary moves to improve the team. The Timberwolves received a trade package that featured All-Star forward Julius Randle, athletic shooter Donte DiVincenzo and a Knicks future first-round pick in exchange for Towns. 

Trading Karl-Anthony Towns appeared to be a huge mistake for much of the season as Minnesota found themselves at 32-29 — which was already 3 more losses than they had all of last season — on Feb. 28 after a 117-116 loss at lowly Utah. Minnesota turned things around after the loss to Utah by winning 17 of their last 21 games, and ending the season with a 49-33 record. They were able to secure the No. 6 seed in the playoffs. The 49 wins were 7 fewer than last season, but they headed into the playoffs playing their best ball of the season.  

For a second straight year, Minnesota has embarrassed a big-name team — Minnesota swept the Kevin Durant-Devin Booker-Bradley Beal led Suns in 2024 — in the first-round of the playoffs. This time, Minnesota subdued the LeBron James/Luka Doncic-led Lakers 4-1 in the first round. Minnesota can advance to the Western Conference for a second straight year and a third time in franchise history if they get past Golden State.

HOW BOTH TEAMS GOT HERE: GOLDEN STATE

Prior to the 2024-25 season, Golden State allowed five-time All-Star and four-time champion Klay Thompson to walk as a free agent. Thompson’s departure marked the end of the dynastic trio of Steph Curry, Thompson and Draymond Green, who led Golden State to four NBA titles (2015, 2017, 2018 and 2022) in their 12 seasons playing together.  

The loss of Klay Thompson did not appear to be a problem initially as Golden State began the year 12-3. But things quickly unraveled for the Warriors as they went on a 5-game losing streak, followed by a 3-12 stretch in December. Golden State’s uneven play continued into February when they found themselves at 25-26 on Feb. 6. They’d gone 13-23 since the 12-3 start. 

Golden State made a major roster move on Feb. 7 when they acquired Miami Heat superstar Jimmy Butler III in a five-team trade. The acquisition of Butler resurrected Golden State’s season as they went 14-2 in their first 16 games with Butler on the team. Golden State would go on to finish the year 48-34 and secure the No. 7 seed. They advanced into the playoffs after knocking off the No. 8 seed Memphis Grizzlies 121-116 in the Play-In round.

The seventh-seeded Warriors went on to outlast the upstart No. 2 seed Houston Rockets 4-3 in a contentious first-round series. Golden State’s playoff experience proved to be too much for the young Rockets to overcome as they won Game 7 at Houston 103-89 in a relatively easy fashion. Steph Curry averaged 24 points, 5.9 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.9 blocks and 4.1 threes, while shooting 47.1 percent from the floor and 39.2 percent from three against the Rockets in Round One. 

THE PICK: TIMBERWOLVES (-5.5)

Golden State should be commended for being able to stay competitive with a team like Minnesota for almost 2 full playoff games without its superstar Steph Curry, but heart and determination can only carry a team so far. Golden State simply does not have the talent to compete with a team like Minnesota without Curry. I think undermanned Golden State used up all of their grit/determination in a gallant effort that came up just short in Game 3, and they’ll get hammered at home tonight. Lay the Points and take the Timberwolves!