NBA Playoff Picks 5/4 – Pacers @ Cavs

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Eastern Conference Semifinals begin tonight with the No. 4 seed Indiana Pacers (50-32 in the regular season) visiting the No. 1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18 in the regular season) at Rocket Arena on TNT. Indiana went 3-1 against Cleveland during the regular season, but two of those victories occurred during the final four days of the regular season when Cleveland did not play their starters. The first two matchups were a home-and-home set on January 12 and 14, with each team picking up double-digit wins on the road. Cleveland is an 8-point favorite, and the total is 229.5.

The teams are squaring off for the fourth time in the postseason. They first met in a best-of-five, first-round series in 1998 with second-seeded Indiana knocking off a Shawn Kemp-led Cavaliers squad 3-1. That Pacers team advanced to the Eastern Conference finals, where they lost to Michael Jordan and the Bulls in seven games. They matched up again in the first-round of the 2017 and 2018 playoffs, with LeBron James-led Cavaliers teams eliminating the Pacers both times — a four-game sweep in 2017 and seven-game triumph in 2018. 

FIRST-ROUND RECAP: INDIANA

Indiana advanced to the East semis after dispatching of the fifth-seeded Milwaukee Bucks 4-1. After winning the first two games against Milwaukee by scores of 117-98 and 123-115, Milwaukee responded with a 117-101 win at home in Game Three. The Bucks trailed by 10 (57-47) at halftime but came out on fire after the intermission and trounced Indiana 70-44 in the second half to pick up the easy win. 

It appeared as if a competitive series was in store between the closely matched teams, but Indiana emerged with a resounding 129-103 win in Game Four to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Game Four took a somber turn early on when Bucks star Damian Lillard suffered a torn left Achilles midway through the first quarter. The Pacers led 15-12 when Lillard went down, and then dominated the rest of the game. 

With Milwaukee down 3-1, and Damian Lillard suffering a torn Achilles that could keep him out for a large portion of next season, it seemed as if Milwaukee was ripe to be blown out in Game 5 at Indiana, but the Bucks showed tremendous resiliency in Game 5. They opened the game on a 13-0 run and led 30-13 after the first quarter. A Kyle Kuzma three-pointer increased Milwaukee’s lead to 33-13 seconds into the second frame. Indiana then outscored Milwaukee 28-14 to pull within 47-41 at halftime. 

Game Five remained close throughout the entire second half, with Milwaukee grabbing a 103-99 with under a minute left. A missed free throw on a 1-and-1 by Giannis Antetokounmpo and a Kevin Porter missed shot allowed Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton to tie the game at 103, after hitting two free throws followed by a dunk with 10.1 seconds remaining. Antetokoumpo was unable to hit a 15-footer to win the game in regulation.

NBA Playoff Picks 5/4 – Pacers @ Cavs

The overtime provided one of the most dramatic finishes in playoff history. Milwaukee led 118-111 with 40 seconds left. An Andrew Nembard three-pointer pulled the Pacers to within 118-114. Bucks guard Gary Trent Jr. proceeded to commit two consecutive turnovers, which led to Tyrese Haliburton converting back-to-back driving layups with 17 seconds left and then 1.1 seconds. Haliburton’s clutch baskets allowed Indiana to escape with an improbable 119-118 win. Gary Trent Jr. (game-high 33 points) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (30 points) each had big games for Milwaukee. Tyrese Haliburton scored a team-high 26 points (10-22 FG, 2-10 3Pt, 4-4 FT) and added 9 assists, 5 rebounds, 3 steals and 3 blocks for Indiana.

The drama did not end at the overtime buzzer, though. John Haliburton, the father of Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton, confronted Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo on the court immediately after the game and began waiving a Pacers towel in his face. This led to a nose-to-nose confrontation between the two, which sparked a shoving match between the Bucks and Pacers at halfcourt. Tyrese Haliburton condemned the behavior of his father during his post-game press conference. John Haliburton also apologized for his actions. 

Forward Pascal Siakam averaged a team-high 19.8 points per game on 55.6 percent shooting from the floor against Milwaukee in the first round. Tyrese Haliburton averaged 17.6 points, 11.6 assists, 6.4 rebounds, and 2.2 threes per game. They’ll likely need increased scoring production from both players to beat the heavily-favored Cleveland Cavaliers in round two. Indiana will look to advance to the Eastern Conference finals for a second straight season. 

 

FIRST-ROUND RECAP: CLEVELAND

Cleveland advanced to the second round after a historic sweep of the Miami Heat. Cleveland’s four-game sweep of the Heat was the most lopsided series win in NBA playoff history. They outscored Miami by a combined 122 points, which is one more than the previous record held by the 2009 Denver Nuggets, who beat the New Orleans Hornets in the first round. New Orleans actually won a game in that series.

Despite the disparity in win totals, — Cleveland won 64 games compared to Miami’s  37 — the three regular season matchups between Miami and Cleveland were relatively close. Miami beat Cleveland by 9 (122-113) at home in December, and Cleveland won the final two games 126-106 and 112-107. Miami also had a knack for elevating their game in the playoffs prior to this season. But this performance against Cleveland showed that the recently departed Jimmy Butler was likely the sole reason for Miami’s terrific postseason runs in recent years.  

Games One and Two in Cleveland had similar themes as the Cavaliers led for most of the game, Miami would rally in the fourth quarter, but were eventually shut down by Cleveland. The Cavaliers opened the series with a 121-100 win. They led for the entire game, but Miami remained within 8-15 points until the midway point of the fourth quarter, where the Cavs outscored Miami 26-12 to win by 21. Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 30 points (11-19 FG, 2-9 3Pt, 6-7 FT) for Cleveland in the Game 1 win. It was the seventh straight playoff series where Mitchell scored at least 30 points in Game One. He tied Michael Jordan — who did it twice — for the most in NBA history.

NBA Playoff Picks 5/4 – Pacers @ Cavs

Game Two ended up being the most competitive game of the series as Cleveland won 121-112. Cleveland led 68-51 at the half and maintained a double-digit lead entering the fourth quarter. Miami rallied and reduced the deficit to 105-103 with 3:11 remaining in the regulation after a Tyler Herro basket. The Cavs then closed the game on a 16-9 run. Donovan Mitchell totaled exactly 30 points (10-21 FG, 7-10 3Pt, 3-4 FT) for a second straight contest in Game Two. 

Switching venues in a series usually gives a boost to the home team, but that was not the case for Miami in this series as they suffered historic losses in Games Three and Four at home. Cleveland pummeled Miami 124-87 in Game Three on April 26. It was the worst playoff loss in Miami Heat history, edging out a 36-point defeat at San Antonio in Game Three of the 2013 NBA Finals. Miami actually opened with a 15-6 lead in Game 3, but it was all Cleveland after that as they went on a 33-5 run that resulted in a 39-20 lead midway through the second quarter. The Cavaliers continued to overwhelm the Heat for the remainder of the game en route to the 37-point victory. 

It seemed as if things couldn’t get any worse for Miami after Game Three’s embarrassing 124-87 defeat, but that wasn’t the case as the Heat were dope-slapped unremittingly in a 138-87 Game Four loss last Monday night. Cleveland led 43-17 after the first quarter and led 72-33 at the half. Cleveland’s 39-point halftime lead was the third-largest in NBA playoff history. Their 55-point win was the fourth-largest win in NBA playoff history. Donovan Mitchell led Cleveland with 22 points in 25 minutes. 13 different players scored a basket in this game for Cleveland.

What makes Cleveland’s dominant sweep of Miami even more impressive is that they won the final two games without All-Star guard Darius Garland. The two-time All-Star missed the last two games against Miami due to a big toe sprain. He is questionable for Game 1 against Indiana tonight. Garland was averaging a team-leading 24 points per game on 51.6 percent shooting from the floor over the first two contests against Miami. Sam Merrill has started the last 2 games in place of Garland.

THE PICK: CAVALIERS (-8)

I’ve got to ride the hot hand here. Cleveland just pulled off the most lopsided playoff series win in NBA history, and I don’t see why anything would change tonight in Game 1 against Indiana. The Cavaliers seem to be locked in and ready to make a strong push towards the NBA Finals. Lay the Points and take the Cavaliers tonight!