by Jack Simon for Wannamakeabet.com
It’s time for the Players and the biggest purse of the season on the PGA Tour. Here’s who I have my eye on this week for outright bets, matchups, and one and done competitions. I’m coming off a win in my one and done pool last week with Russell Henley so let’s try and keep the mojo going with the following action:
One and Done – Scottie Scheffler and Sepp Straka (we have to make two picks this week in my pool). Scottie’s ball striking is too good to ignore and coming off back to back wins in the last two years is also a critical data point. He didn’t putt well at Bay Hill last week and was shaky in one round at the Genesis, but other than that he’s been as solid as ever and he’s still the best player in the field tee to green. I’m assuming he can get with putting coach Phil Kenyon and work things out. As for Straka, what else can you say other than he’s trending hard and I won’t be surprised if he breaks through and actually wins this week as obscure players have been known to win here. Three out of the last four years he has top 15s here and his last five starts he’s top 11 in four of them. Yes, he had the missed cut at the Genesis but I think that’s because he played in four straight weeks and got the bad end of the draw with the weather.
Outright Bets – I recommend de-risking all of these with top 10, 20, 30, or 40 as you see fit but sprinkle some $ on the outright win:
Ludwig Aberg – 16/1 – Aberg is proving to be a bit of a boom or bust type player and we can’t be encouraged by his meltdown last week at Bay Hill. But we’ve all seen what he can do and believe he’s as good as anyone in the world. He hits the ball dead straight tee to green and despite only playing this tournament one time (last year), he did finish 8th and is number one in the field in strokes gained based on that one start.
Hideki Matsuyama – 25/1 – Ball striking machine who has a win here and is not afraid to go low here or anywhere. Really nice value at this number.
Daniel Berger – 40/1 – Berger is trending and improving. T2, T12, T25, and T15 in his last four. And even though he didn’t play the last two years here, the two years before that he finished 9th and 13th.
Michael Kim – 70/1 – You can’t ignore what this kid has been doing and he continues to threaten every single week finds himself near the top of the leaderboard ON SUNDAY. He hasn’t finished outside the top 13 in the last five starts that makes him the hottest player on tour right now who has not won in the past two months. Watch him break through this week.
Brian Harmon – 125/1 – Little Brian has been golfing his ball lately making five straight cuts. And let’s not forget he finished T2 here last year despite everyone thinking it was all about Scottie and Wyndham Clark. Four years ago he also finished T3. He likes this place and controls his ball well enough to get it around here and maybe steal this. He’s not afraid to win the big one and proved it with the Open win. Tons of value here.
Matchups
Billy Horschel over Kurt Kitayama (-115)
Billy’s a local boy and solid tee to green and Kitayama has been letting people down all season and he’s not playing well. This should be easy money.
Prop Bets
Hole in one on #17 (Yes) +190. That hole location on Friday is favorable for backing one in. Let’s have some fun.
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