NFC Championship Picks – Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The NFC Championship Game presents a battle of long-time NFC East rivals as the sixth-seeded Washington Commanders (12-5, second in NFC East) visit the second-seeded Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, first in NFC East) at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday afternoon.

The games kicks off at 3:00 ET on Fox. The winner advances to Super Bowl LIX (59) in New Orleans on Feb. 9. This is the second all-time playoff meeting between Washington and Philadelphia. They met in the opening wild-card round during the 1990-91 season where fifth-seeded Washington upset the fourth-seeded Philadelphia 20-6. That result led to the firing of boisterous Eagles coach Buddy Ryan.

Washington and Philadelphia split the regular season matchups with each team winning at home. The Eagles outlasted the Commanders 26-18 in Week 11 on Nov. 14. Washington returned the favor by picking up a 36-33 comeback victory in Week 16 on Dec. 22. Philadelphia has won six of the last eight against Washington dating back to the 2020 season. Philadelphia is a 6-point favorite and the total is 47.5.

Washington advanced to the championship game after winning back-to-back road games. They squeaked by third-seeded Tampa Bay 23-20 in the wild-card round after kicker Zane Gonzalez connected on a 37-yard field goal that clanged off the upright and went through as time expired. It was Washington’s first playoff win since Jan. 7, 2006 when they won at Tampa Bay 17-10 in the wild-card round during the 2005-06 season.

After getting by Tampa Bay, Washington soundly defeated the heavily-favored, top-seeded Detroit Lions 45-31 in the divisional round last Saturday at Detroit. Washington was buoyed by excellent peformances from exceptional rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and their defense.

Daniels completed 22 of 31 passes for 299 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also added 51 rushing yards on 16 carries. Washington’s defense intercepted Detroit quarterback Jared Goff three times — they also picked off Lions wideout Jameson Williams on an ill-fated trick play — and forced a Goff fumble.

Philadelphia advanced to the NFC championship game after knocking off the No. 7 seed Green Bay Packers 22-10 in the wild-card round and then holding off the No. 4 seed Los Angeles Rams 28-22 in the divisional round last Sunday. Philadelphia relied heavily on its superstar running back Saquon Barkley and its top-rated defense to win both games.

Saquon Barkley rushed for 119 yards on 25 carries against Green Bay. He followed that up with an astounding 205 yards on 25 carries with 2 touchdowns in last week’s win against Los Angeles. The Eagles defense intercepted Packers quarterback three times and sacked him twice in the wild-card round.

They sacked Rams quarterback five times last week. Quarterback Jalen Hurts suffered a knee injury in the third quarter against the Rams last week, he was able to finish the game. The injury could be an issue against Washington on Sunday.

Prior to this season, the once proud Washington football franchise had morphed into one of the worst in the NFL due to poor ownership, terrible personnel decisions and coaching instability. Washington was one of the elite franchises in the NFL from the Super Bowl era (1970) through the 1992 season where they won multiple Super Bowls. Since the 1992 season, Washington has only made six playoff appearances and won two playoff games.

Two significant changes in the offseason drastically changed the fortunes of the Washington Commanders. The first being selecting LSU quarterback and 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft in April. The second was a new ownership group led by Josh Harris purchasing the Washington Commanders in July.

NBA Hall of Famer Magic Johnson is also part of the ownership group. Both moves have led to a stunning turnaround that saw Washington go from a dismal 4-13 finish in 2023 to a 12-5 finish this year and on the cusp of making the Super Bowl.

There aren’t enough superlatives to illustrate how spectacular quarterback Jayden Daniels has played during his rookie year and the impact he’s made on the Washington Commanders franchise. After a nondescript first two games, Daniels had his breakout performance in a 38-33 upset win at Cincinnati in Week 3 on Monday Night Football. He never looked back and has dominated the NFL ever since.

Daniels finished the regular season throwing for 3,568 yards with 25 touchdowns to 9 interceptions while completing 69% of his passes. He rushed for a rookie quarterback record 891 yards along with 6 rushing touchdowns. Daniels was named the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year and was named a Pro Bowler.

Wide receiver Terry McLaurin finished the regular season with team-highs of 82 catches, 1,096 yards and 13 touchdowns. His 13 touchdowns set a franchise record that stood for 25 seasons (Ricky Sanders – 1988). He also became the first wide receiver in franchise history to record 75-plus receptions, 1,000-plus receiving yards and 10-plus receiving touchdowns in a season.

The 29-year-old Ohio State product has surpassed the 1,000-yard mark for a fifth straight season. Veteran tight end Zach Ertz (66 catches for 654 yards, 7 touchdowns) and Brian Robinson Jr. (799 rushing yards, 9 total touchdowns in 14 games) are also standouts in Washington’s offense.

The improvement of Washington’s defense was also a factor in the turnaround. All-Pro veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner (team-leading 132 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble this season), safety Jeremy Chinn (117 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble), linebacker Dante Fowler Jr. (team-leading 10.5 sacks, 1 interception, 2 forced fumbles) and linebacker Frankie Luvu (99 tackles, 8 sacks, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble) were all added as free agents this season and had outstanding seasons. The 34-year-old Wagner was named an All-Pro for the 11th time in his illustrious career.

Expectations for the 2024 Philadelphia Eagles were all over the place when you consider they had a dominant season in 2022 where they advanced to the Super Bowl and narrowly lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 38-35. They followed that up by starting 10-1 last season only to suffer a terrible late-season collapse that saw them finish 11-6 and end the season with an embarrassing 32-0 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first round of the playoffs.

Philadelphia signed star running back Saquon Barkley to a 3-year, $37.7 million contract in the offseason. Barkley spent 6 excellent but somewhat injury-plagued seasons with the New York Giants after they selected him second overall in the 2018 NFL draft out of Penn State. Joining the Eagles also represented a homecoming for Barkley who grew up in Whitehall Township, Pennsylvania which is about an hour from Philadelphia.

Due to the incompetence of the New York Giants organization, no one was quite sure how Saquon Barkley would look with the Eagles. Did his time with the Giants drain his ability or would playing with a team that has Super Bowl potential revitalize his career?

The latter happened in a spectacular way for Barkley as he went on to have one of the greatest seasons for a running back in NFL history. Barkley rushed for an astonishing 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns in 16 games in his debut season with the Eagles. He became the 8th running back in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards. Barkley was 101 yards shy of breaking the all-time single-season rushing record (2,105) set by Eric Dickerson in 1984 but he elected to sit out of the last game of the season.

The Eagles defense was also elite this season, in addition to Saquon Barkley. They finished with the #1 ranked defense in the NFL this year. Anchoring the star-studded defense is linebacker Zack Baun (151 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 interception, 5 forced fumbles), safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (59 tackles, 6 interceptions, 1 Pick-Six, 1 forced fumble), linebacker Josh Sweat (41 tackles, team-leading 8 sacks) and a trio of former University of Georgia Bulldogs — who won the 2021-22 BCS National Championship — in linebackers Nakobe Dean (128 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble) and Nolan Smith Jr. (42 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble) along with defensive tackle Jalen Carter (42 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles).

Unfortunately, Nakobe Dean suffered a torn patellar tendon in his knee during the Eagles wild-card win against Green Bay and will miss the rest of the playoffs. 6-foot-6, 336 pound defensive tackle Jordan Davis — who is also a former Georgia Bulldog that played alongside Dean, Smith Jr. and Carter — has started every games this year for the Eagles and will be counted on to fill some of the the void left by Dean’s injury. Davis only had one sack on the season but his size and ability to stop the run has been valuable for the Eagles.

Jayden Daniels and the Commanders have had an inspiring run knocking off higher seeds and making it to the NFC Championship game for the first time since January 1992 but I think it ends on Sunday. I expect Saquon Barkley will have another huge game and the defense will give Jayden Daniels some problems. The Eagles have also won 14 of their last 15 games with the only loss being to Washington where Jalen Hurts exited the game with a concussion in the 1st half. Lay the Points…Eagles 31, Commanders 17