Wild Card Playoff Picks: Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

Wild Card Playoff Picks: Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

by Jack Chambers for Wannamakeabet.com

Date: Sunday, January 12, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Broadcast: CBS, Paramount+
Spread: Bills -7
Total: 44.5

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Game Overview

The Denver Broncos, led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix, face a formidable challenge as they travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills, quarterbacked by Pro Bowler Josh Allen. The Bills, bolstered by the mid-season acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper, boast a high-powered offense and a resilient defense. The Broncos, under new head coach Sean Payton, are in a rebuilding phase but have shown flashes of potential throughout the season.

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Team Breakdowns

Buffalo Bills

• Offensive Strengths: Josh Allen continues to be a dual-threat quarterback, capable of making plays with both his arm and legs. The addition of Amari Cooper has provided a reliable target alongside tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Running back James Cook offers balance to the offense with his versatility.
• Defensive Strengths: The Bills’ defense, coordinated by Bobby Babich, is known for its aggressive pass rush and solid secondary play. Defensive end Greg Rousseau and linebacker Matt Milano are key contributors who can disrupt opposing offenses.

Denver Broncos

• Offensive Strengths: Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has shown promise, displaying mobility and a strong arm. Wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims provide downfield threats, while running back Jaleel McLaughlin offers explosiveness out of the backfield.
• Defensive Strengths: The Broncos’ defense features standout cornerback Pat Surtain II and pass rusher Nik Bonitto, both Pro Bowl selections. Safety Brandon Jones adds stability to the secondary.

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Key Matchups

1. Josh Allen vs. Broncos’ Secondary
   Allen’s connection with Amari Cooper will test Denver’s pass defense, particularly cornerback Pat Surtain II. Limiting big plays will be crucial for the Broncos.
2. Bo Nix vs. Bills’ Pass Rush
   Nix’s ability to handle pressure from Buffalo’s defensive front, led by Greg Rousseau, will be pivotal. Quick decision-making and mobility could help mitigate the pass rush but it won’t be easy.
3. James Cook vs. Broncos’ Run Defense
   Cook’s effectiveness on the ground can help control the game’s tempo. Denver’s front seven must contain him to force the Bills into a one-dimensional offense.

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Betting Angles

Spread: Bills -7

The Bills are favored by a touchdown, reflecting their offensive firepower and home-field advantage. While the Broncos have potential, their inexperience at quarterback may be a limiting factor.

• Lean: Bills -7

Total: 44.5

Given Buffalo’s potent offense and Denver’s defensive capabilities, the total points could approach this number. However, potential weather conditions in Buffalo and playoff intensity might contribute to a lower-scoring affair.

• Lean: Under 44.5

Prop Bets to Consider

• Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-150): Allen’s proficiency in the red zone makes this a favorable bet.
• Amari Cooper Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120): Cooper has become a reliable target for Allen, especially in scoring situations.
• Bo Nix Over 0.5 Interceptions (-130): As a rookie in a high-pressure environment, Nix may be prone to turnovers against a savvy Bills defense.
• James Cook Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110): With the potential to control the game’s pace, Cook is likely to see ample carries.

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Prediction

The Bills’ experience and offensive versatility, combined with home-field advantage, position them favorably against the Broncos. While Denver’s defense may keep the game competitive, Buffalo’s superior talent and playoff experience should secure them the victory.  Denver will have to play a perfect game to stay in this one and we don’t see it happening.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 27, Broncos 17

Best Bets:

• Bills -7
• Under 44.5
• Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
• Amari Cooper Anytime Touchdown Scorer