CFP Semifinal Picks: Penn State vs. Notre Dame

CFP Semifinal Picks: Penn State vs. Notre Dame

by Jack Chambers for Wannamakeabet.com

Date: Thursday, January 9, 2025
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
Broadcast: ESPN
Spread: Notre Dame -1
Total: 45

The College Football Playoff semifinals feature a razor-thin spread, highlighting how evenly matched Penn State and Notre Dame are. With the Fighting Irish as slight favorites and a relatively low total of 45 points, the game projects to be a defensive battle, placing a premium on efficiency and execution.

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Team Overviews

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

• Record: 11-2
• Key Strengths: Balanced offense led by quarterback Sam Hartman and a secondary capable of creating game-changing plays.
• Offensive Style: A methodical, run-first attack complemented by Hartman’s deep ball accuracy.
• Defensive Backbone: The Irish’s secondary, anchored by Xavier Watts, excels at limiting explosive plays.

Penn State Nittany Lions

• Record: 12-1
• Key Strengths: Stifling defense and a run-heavy offense with elite backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen.
• Offensive Style: Ground-and-pound approach, designed to wear down opponents and control time of possession.
• Defensive Edge: An aggressive front seven that excels at pressuring quarterbacks and stopping the run.

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Key Matchups to Watch

1. Notre Dame’s Offensive Line vs. Penn State’s Pass Rush

Sam Hartman has thrived behind a strong offensive line, but Penn State’s front seven, led by Chop Robinson, poses a significant challenge. Hartman’s ability to release the ball quickly and avoid sacks will be critical.

2. Penn State’s Running Game vs. Notre Dame’s Front Seven

The Nittany Lions’ running backs are their offensive engine, but the Irish’s front seven has been solid against the run. If Notre Dame can limit Singleton and Allen to short gains, Penn State may struggle to sustain drives.

3. Special Teams and Field Position

With points expected to be at a premium, punting, kick coverage, and field goal accuracy will play a pivotal role. Alex Felkins (Penn State) and Spencer Shrader (Notre Dame) are reliable kickers, but slight edges in special teams execution could swing the game.

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Betting Angles

Spread: Notre Dame -1

The line suggests a true toss-up, with Notre Dame slightly favored after starting the week as a 3 point dog. The Fighting Irish’s experience and Hartman’s poise in tight games may give them a slight edge in what should be a low-scoring affair.

• Lean: Penn State -1

Total: 45

Both teams feature elite defenses, and the low total reflects expectations of a grind-it-out battle. Each team’s run-heavy offensive style further supports a slower pace and fewer scoring opportunities.

• Lean: Under 45

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Best Bets

1. First-Half Under 21 Points: Both teams may start cautiously, testing each other’s defenses before taking bigger risks.
2. Sam Hartman Over 215.5 Passing Yards: Hartman’s experience and Notre Dame’s reliance on his arm could push him over this modest total.
3. Nick Singleton Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Penn State will lean on their star back in critical scoring situations.
4. Notre Dame Moneyline (-115): If you want to avoid the push scenario with the spread, the moneyline is a solid alternative.

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Prediction

This game will likely come down to situational football—third downs, red-zone efficiency, and turnover margin. Penn State’s edge in high profile game experience and their quarterback play give them the slightest advantage.

Final Score Prediction:
Notre Dame 20, Penn State 23

Best Bets Recap:

• Penn State +1
• Under 45
• First-Half Under 21 Points
• Sam Hartman Over 215.5 Passing Yards
• Nick Singleton Anytime Touchdown Scorer