CFP Semifinal Picks: Ohio State vs. Texas

CFP Semifinal Picks: Ohio State vs. Texas

by Jack Chambers for Wannamakeabet.com

Date: Friday, January 5, 2025
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX
Broadcast: ESPN
Spread: Ohio State -6
Moneyline: Ohio State -225, Texas +185
Total: 53

The Cotton Bowl will host a high-stakes clash as Ohio State faces Texas in a CFP semifinal matchup loaded with talent and storylines. Ohio State enters as six-point favorites, armed with a potent offense led by quarterback Will Howard and a punishing run game featuring Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. Texas counters with Quinn Ewers, a former Ohio State recruit eager to prove himself against his former program.

---

Team Overviews

Ohio State Buckeyes

• Record: 12-1
• Strengths: Ohio State boasts a balanced offensive attack and a smothering defense. The tandem of Judkins and Henderson has been instrumental in controlling games, while Will Howard’s efficient passing has kept defenses honest.
• Key Player: TreVeyon Henderson, who can break games open with his speed and versatility.
• Defensive Standouts: Cody Simon’s leadership in the linebacker corps and J.T. Tuimoloau’s dominance on the defensive line anchor a unit capable of stifling even elite offenses.

Texas Longhorns

• Record: 12-1
• Strengths: Texas leans on an explosive passing game with Quinn Ewers under center, complemented by Cedric Baxter Jr.’s physicality in the backfield. The Longhorn defense is opportunistic, thriving on turnovers.
• Key Player: Quinn Ewers, who must navigate Ohio State’s relentless pressure while leveraging his familiarity with their schemes from his time in Columbus.
• Defensive Standouts: Jaylan Ford’s playmaking ability and Byron Murphy II’s interior dominance will be critical to slowing Ohio State’s run game.

---

Key Matchups

1. Ohio State Rushing Attack vs. Texas Front Seven

Judkins and Henderson represent one of the nation’s top backfield duos. Texas will need to focus on gap discipline and physical tackling to limit their impact.

2. Quinn Ewers vs. Ohio State Secondary

Ewers faces a disciplined Ohio State defense that excels at disguising coverage. His ability to push the ball downfield without turnovers will be pivotal.

3. Will Howard’s Efficiency vs. Texas Defense

Howard’s decision-making and ability to spread the ball could exploit mismatches, especially if Texas sells out to stop the run.

---

Betting Angles

Spread: Ohio State -6

Ohio State’s depth, playoff experience, and dominance in the trenches make them the likely victor. Expect a strong second-half performance to cover the spread.

• Lean: Ohio State -6

Moneyline: Ohio State -225

For those looking for a safer option, the moneyline offers a solid play on the Buckeyes.

• Lean: Ohio State -225

Total: 53

Ohio State’s defense and Texas’s reliance on time-consuming drives make the under attractive.

• Lean: Under 53

---

Best Bets

1. TreVeyon Henderson Over 95.5 Rushing Yards: Henderson’s explosive ability makes him a key focal point in this matchup.
2. Quinn Ewers Over 250.5 Passing Yards: Ewers will likely air it out in an attempt to keep pace.
3. First-Half Under 26.5 Points: Both teams may approach the first half conservatively, emphasizing defense and ball control.
4. Ohio State -3 First Half Spread: The Buckeyes are strong starters, and Texas may take time to adjust.

---

Prediction

Ohio State’s ability to control the game with their run game and suffocating defense should see them advance. While Texas has the talent to compete, the Buckeyes’ execution and depth will likely prove too much to handle.

Final Score Prediction:
Ohio State 31, Texas 21

Best Bets Recap:

• Ohio State -6
• TreVeyon Henderson Over 95.5 Rushing Yards
• Quinn Ewers Over 250.5 Passing Yards
• First-Half Under 26.5 Points
• Ohio State -3 First Half Spread