Wild Card Playoff Preview: Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans

Wild Card Playoff Preview: Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans

Date: Saturday, January 11, 2025
Time: 4:30 PM ET
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Broadcast: CBS, Paramount+
Spread: Chargers -3
Total: 47.5

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Game Overview

The Los Angeles Chargers visit the Houston Texans in a Wild Card matchup featuring two playoff-hungry teams with contrasting styles. The Chargers lean on Justin Herbert’s aerial attack, while the Texans feature Joe Mixon as the focal point of their ground-and-pound offense, complemented by rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud’s poise and precision to star receiver Nico Collins.

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Updated Team Breakdown

Los Angeles Chargers

• Offensive Strengths: Justin Herbert leads a dynamic offense featuring running back JK Dobbins and standout rookie Ladd McConkey.
• Defensive Strengths: Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack and Derwin James headline a unit capable of generating turnovers and applying pressure, but their run defense remains a vulnerability.

Houston Texans

• Offensive Strengths: Joe Mixon’s ability to control the game on the ground adds a new dimension to the Texans’ offense. Mixon’s power running complements C.J. Stroud’s accurate passing to Nico Collins but he’ll have to do without starts Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs who are both on IR.
• Defensive Strengths: The Texans excel in pass rush and situational defense, with rookie Will Anderson Jr. and a disciplined secondary leading the charge.

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Key Matchups

1. Joe Mixon vs. Chargers’ Run Defense
   Mixon’s presence allows the Texans to try and control the clock and exploit a Chargers defense that has struggled to stop the run. Expect Mixon to be the centerpiece of Houston’s game plan.
2. Justin Herbert vs. Texans’ Defense
   Herbert’s ability to spread the ball and extend plays will be tested against a Texans pass rush that includes Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter and a disciplined linebacker corps.
3. Quentin Johnston vs. Texans’ Secondary
   Johnston’s size and speed present a challenge for Houston’s defensive backs. Containing him will be key to slowing the Chargers’ offense.  But will he be able to hold onto the ball?  Key drops have been an issue this season.

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Betting Angles

Spread: Chargers -3

The Chargers have the experience advantage, particularly at quarterback, but the Texans’ balanced attack and home-field energy keep this matchup close.  Coaching edge also goes to the Chargers as Harbaugh has been deep in the playoffs before and the Houston offense is near the top of the league in penalties.

• Lean: Chargers -3

Total: Under 47.5

With both teams likely leaning on ball control, a lower-scoring game seems probable. Both defenses are capable of making key stops in high-pressure situations.

• Lean: Under 47.5

Prop Bets to Watch

• Joe Mixon Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-110): Mixon is primed for a big workload and has a favorable matchup against the Chargers’ porous run defense.
• Quentin Johnston Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150): Johnston is a red-zone threat and a focal point of the Chargers’ passing game.  We like this if he can hold on to the ball.
• Will Anderson Jr. to Record a Sack (+110): The rookie’s ability to disrupt Herbert could be a game-changer and he could be facing third string left tackle Foster Sarell.
• C.J. Stroud Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+125): Stroud has shown the ability to deliver in the red zone, making this an appealing bet, although we were prefer better odds than +125.  Keep shopping

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Prediction

Joe Mixon’s impact on the ground and Houston’s defensive intensity make this a challenging matchup for the Chargers. However, Justin Herbert’s experience and playmaking ability give Los Angeles the slight edge in a tightly contested game.

Final Score Prediction: Chargers 24, Texans 21
Best Bets:

• Chargers +3
• Under 47.5
• Joe Mixon Over 85.5 Rushing Yards
• Quentin Johnston Anytime Touchdown Scorer