NFL Picks 1/5 – New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Bucs

NFL Picks 1/5 – New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Bucs

by Thomas Quaynor For Wannamakeabet.com

The final week of the NFL’s regular season concludes with an NFC South matchup as the New Orleans Saints (5-11) visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) on Sunday afternoon at Raymond James Stadium. With a win on Sunday, Tampa Bay can clinch the NFC South division title and guarantee they begin the playoffs with a home game. It would be their fourth straight division crown and fifth straight playoff appearance. 

Tampa Bay routed New Orleans 51-27 when the teams met in Week 6 at New Orleans. The Bucs outscored the Saints 27-0 in the second half of that game and rushed for 277 yards. Tampa has won four of the last five against New Orleans dating back to the 2022 season. Tampa is a 14-point favorite and the total is 43.5. 

The injury-depleted Saints are coming off a 25-10 loss to the last-place Las Vegas Raiders in their home finale last Sunday. Rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler completed 20 of 36 passes for 218 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. He also rushed for a team-high 46 yards on three carries. Rattler is 0-5 as a starter this year. Tight end Juwan Johnson led the Saints with six receptions and 66 yards. 

Tampa Bay crushed the visiting Carolina Panthers 48-14 last Sunday. Baker Mayfield completed 27 of 32 passes for 359 yards and a season-high five touchdowns with no interceptions in the win. It was his fourth straight game with multiple touchdown passes. Electrifying rookie running back Bucky Irving rushed for a game-high 113 yards on 20 carries and caught four passes for 77 yards. Stalwart wide receiver Mike Evans finished with team-highs of eight catches for 97 yards and two touchdowns.

GAME STORYLINES: NEW ORLEANS

For 15 seasons (2006-2020), future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees and head coach Sean Payton led the New Orleans Saints franchise to extraordinary heights. The Saints made 9 playoff appearances, took home 7 division titles and won Super Bowl XLIV (49) during the 2009-10 season thanks in large part to the contributions of Brees and Payton. Brees retired after the 2020 season and Payton stepped down after the 2021 season and the Saints have not made the playoffs since.

In the almost three full seasons post Drew Brees and Sean Payton, New Orleans has posted records of 7-10, 9-8 and are currently 5-11. The 11 losses this season are the most since 2005 — the year before Brees and Payton arrived — when  the Saints finished 3-13. The Saints began this season looking like world-beaters after starting 2-0 and outscoring Carolina and Dallas by a combined score of 91-19. But inconsistency combined with injuries to key players ended up derailing the 2024 season for the Saints. 

NFL Picks 1/5 – New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Bucs

Starting quarterback Derek Carr (7 missed games), tight end/dual threat dynamo Taysom Hill (9 games) along with top 2 wideouts Chris Olave (8 games) and Rashid Shaheed (11 games) have all missed significant time with injuries. Olave and Shaheed were the Saints leading receivers last year and have both been out since October. The third year Ohio State product Olave — the Saints leading receiver during his first 2 seasons in the NFL — hasn’t played since suffering his second concussion of the year at Carolina on Nov. 1. He’s been a full participant in practice for the last 2 weeks and is reportedly begging to play but the Saints seem to be wary of putting him on the field again this year. 

Running back Alvin Kamara (950 rushing yards, 543 receiving yards, 8 total touchdowns in 14 games) and wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (352 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns in 7 games) have been two bright spots in this dismal season for the Saints offense. The versatile Kamara missed the last 2 games after suffering a groin injury against Washington on Dec. 15 and is unlikely to play in the season finale at Tampa Bay. He was 50 yards shy of achieving the first 1,000 rushing yard season of his career. The Saints signed Valdes-Scantling on October 22 after Buffalo released him and he’s been outstanding in his brief stay with the Saints. 

Despite the struggles of the defense, All-Pro linebacker Demario Davis continues to play at an elite level. The 35-year-old, 13-year veteran has amassed a team-leading 127 tackles along with 2 sacks, 1 interception and 9.5 stuffs through 15 games. He was named to the All-Pro team five years in a row entering this season. Former All-Pro cornerback Tyrann Mathieu (60 tackles, 3 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery in 16 games), defensive tackle Bryan Bresee (7.5 sacks and 1 forced fumble in 16 games), and defensive end Carl Granderson (56 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss, 1 forced fumble in 16 games) are also having very good seasons. 

GAME STORYLINES: TAMPA BAY

Quarterback Baker Mayfield entered the NFL with tremendous expectations after winning the 2017 Heisman Trophy in a landslide and then being selected No. 1 overall in the 2018 NFL draft by the Cleveland Browns a few months later. After four up-and-down seasons, the Cleveland Browns decided to trade Baker Mayfield to the Carolina Panthers for a conditional fifth-round pick in July 2022. Carolina then waived him after just 7 games with the team. He finished out the 2022 season with the Rams. It appeared as if Mayfield’s NFL career was going to be a huge disappointment.

In what has turned out to be a career-altering move for both sides, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Baker Mayfield to a one-year deal worth up to $8.5 million in March 2023. Mayfield was brought in to be the successor to future Hall of Famer and 7-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady which meant he would be under tremendous pressure to succeed again. Mayfield did not disappoint this time around as he put up the best statistical season of his six-year career in year one with Tampa Bay. Mayfield posted career highs in passing yards (4,044), passing touchdowns (28) and completion percentage (64.3) last season.

NFL Picks 1/5 – New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Bucs

Baker Mayfield’s excellent play in 2023 earned him a 3-year, $100 million deal from Tampa Bay last March. Mayfield did not rest on his laurels after signing the huge deal as he’s been even better this season. He’s thrown for 4,279 yards with 39 touchdowns to 15 interceptions while completing 71.7 percent of his passes through 16 games. Mayfield has made a remarkable transformation in his career as he’s gone from a player who was cut in the middle of the 2022 season to one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL two seasons later.

Superstar wide receiver Mike Evans (915 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns in 13 games), rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan (387 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns in 12 games), speedy rookie running back Bucky Irving (1,033 rushing yards, 397 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns in 16 games) and running back Rachaad White (613 rushing yards, 393 receiving yards, 9 total touchdowns in 15 games) are all key components in the Bucs offense. 

Mike Evans needs 85 yards to reach 1,000 on the season and tie Jerry Rice for consecutive 1,000 yard seasons with 11. Evans eclipsing the 1,000 yard mark again this year is quite an accomplishment when you consider he missed three games with a hamstring injury in the middle of the season. Evans has recorded at least 1,000 yards in all 11 of his NFL seasons. 

The emergence of the two rookies Bucky Irving (4th Rd pick) and Jalen McMillan (3rd Rd pick) have been crucial to the Buccaneers success after star wideout Chris Godwin suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the final minute of a 41-31 loss to Baltimore on Oct. 21. McMillan has 6 touchdowns over his last 4 games and has become a viable No. 2 wideout next to Mike Evans in the offense. Irving is one of the top rookies in the NFL this season.

THE PICK: BUCCANEERS (-14)

The Buccaneers have everything — NFC South division crown and a home playoff game — to play for on Sunday while the Saints just want their dreadful season to end. I think this game will get out of hand pretty quickly, lay the big number…Bucs 41, Saints 17