MLB Picks 7/14 – Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox

MLB Picks 7/14 – Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox

The Kansas City Royals (52-44) conclude a three-game series on the road against the Boston Red Sox (52-42) this afternoon at Fenway Park. The teams split the first two games with Kansas City winning the opener 6-1 on Friday night and Boston getting a 6-0 shutout win yesterday. They’ll square off again early next month for a three-game series in Kansas City. Boston is 7-3 against Kansas City dating back to September 2022. 

Kansas City won the opening game of the series 6-1 behind a strong pitching performance from promising young pitcher Cole Ragans. Ragans struck out seven batters and gave up one earned run over seven innings in picking up his sixth win of the season. The 26-year-old was named an All-Star for the first time in just his second full season as a starting pitcher. All-Star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and left fielder MJ Melendez hit solo homers for Kansas City in the win.

Boston rebounded from Friday night’s loss by blanking Kansas City 5-0 yesterday. Kutter Crawford struck out four over seven scoreless innings in picking up his sixth win of the season. All-star third baseman Rafael Devers crushed a solo homer over the Green Monster in the fifth inning. It was his 22nd homer of the season.

Today’s starters are Brady Singer (5-5, 2.93 ERA, 96 K’s in 16 starts) for Kansas City and Brayan Bello (9-5, 5.40 ERA 82 K’s in 16 starts) for Boston.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Kansas City +110,   Boston -135

Run Line: Kansas City +1.5 (-175),   Boston -1.5 (+145)

Run Total: over 9.5 (-115)     under 9.5 (-105)      

GAME STORYLINES: KANSAS CITY

The Kansas City Royals entered the 2024 season with modest expectations due to the fact that they’ve experienced 8 straight non-winning seasons and finished with a horrific 56-106 record last season. Kansas City’s last winning season was in 2015 when they finished 95-67 and won the World Series. So, the fact that the Royals are now 52-44 and in position to participate in the playoffs for the first time since Game 5 of the 2015 World Series in November 2015 is stunning. 

The biggest reason for Kansas City’s surprising turnaround has been their great starting pitching. Last season Kansas City’s 5.17 ERA ranked 28th (of 30) in MLB. They also ranked among the bottom five teams in just about every pitching category such as quality starts, strikeouts and WHIP. This season Kansas City has improved their team ERA to 3.76 which ranks 9th in MLB.

MLB Picks 7/14 – Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox

Kansas City’s starting pitching has been tremendous this season. In particular, 34-year-old veteran right-hander Seth Lugo. He is currently 11-4 with a 2.48 ERA and 116:30 K:BB across 20 starts. His 11 wins ranks second among starting pitchers. He has come out of nowhere to have a fantastic season in his first year with the Royals. Lugo was named to the All-Star team for the first time in his 9-year career. He could be named the starter for the game. 

Royals ace Cole Ragans (6-6, 3.16 ERA, 141:38 K:BB in 20 starts) and Brady Singer (5-5, 2.93 ERA, 95 K’s in 18 starts) are also pitching very well this season alongside Lugo in the starting rotation. The 26-year-old Ragan’s 141 strikeouts rank 4th in MLB and he’s held teams to 2 runs or fewer in 9 of his last 11 starts. He was also named to the American League All-Star roster along with Seth Lugo. Ragans and Lugo are the first Royals pitchers to be named All-Stars since 2017 and it marks the first time in franchise history that the Royals will have 2 All-Star starting pitchers in the same season.

At the plate, the duo of superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (.324, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 22 steals through 96 games) and veteran Salvador Perez (.279, 16 HR, 61 RBI through 93 games) lead Kansas City’s offense again this season. The 24-year-old Witt was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft and has quickly established himself as one of the MLB’s top players already in his third season. The 34-year-old Perez has spent his entire 14-year MLB career with Kansas City and was the 2015 World Series MVP when the Kansas City defeated the New York Mets in 5 games. Witt and Perez were both named to the American League All-Star roster. It will be the ninth All-Star nod for Perez and the first for Witt.

GAME STORYLINES: BOSTON

After completing back-to-back disappointing seasons that resulted in identical 78-84 records in 2022 and 2023, the Boston Red Sox looked to rebound in 2024. The season appeared to be heading down the same path of mediocrity as the previous 2 seasons when Boston found themselves at just 33-34 on June 11. Since then, Boston has gone 19-8 and are now just 4.5 games out first place in the tough American League East.

Improved starting pitching and the emergence of several young hitters sparked Boston’s strong play over the last month. The four returning starting pitchers – Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta – from last season have all been fairly consistent and injury-free this season. Boston’s pitching was a glaring weakness for the past two seasons.

MLB Picks 7/14 – Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox

Tanner Huock has been Boston’s best pitcher this year compiling an 8-6 record with a 2.54 ERA and 112 strikeouts through 19 starts. The 28-year-old’s 2.54 ERA ranks 6th among starting pitchers. The former relief pitcher began the year as Boston’s 5th starter but quickly established himself as Boston’s ace. Huock was selected to the American League All-Star roster for the first time in his career. 

At the plate, superstar third baseman Rafael Devers is producing another fabulous season. The 27-year-old Devers is batting .291 with 22 homers and 59 RBI through 82 games. He hit his 22nd homer in yesterday’s win against Kansas City. He’s on pace to hit 30 homers and drive in 100 RBI for the third time in the last four seasons. Devers was named an All-Star for the third time of his career this season.

Left fielder Jarren Duran is experiencing a breakout season in year four. The 27-year-old Duran is batting .277 with 10 homers, 41 RBI, 26 doubles, 10 triples and 22 stolen bases. He was named an All-Star for the first time in his career. Duran leads a pack of young and talented Red Sox hitters – rookies Ceddane Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu and David Hamilton – who have strengthened the lineup around Devers. 

THE PICK: RED SOX (ML)

Boston has won 9 of 12 entering today’s game so getting them as a minus-130 favorite is a bargain. In their last 27 games, Boston is 17-1 against right-handed pitchers, as opposed to 1-8 against left-handed pitchers. The right-handed Brady Singer will pitch for Kansas City today. Take the Red Sox on the moneyline!

MLB Picks 7/14 – Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox