MLB Picks 6/17 – Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB Picks 6/17 – Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates

The Cincinnati Reds (34-37) open a three-game set at the Pittsburgh Pirates (34-37) tonight on FS1. The National League Central combatants are meeting for the first time this season. Cincinnati is coming off a 5-4 loss at Milwaukee yesterday. The game ended with Cincinnati outfielder Stuart Fairchild being thrown out at the plate after trying to score from second base on a bloop hit from Santiago Espinal. Cincinnati has dropped two straight and four of their last six. 

Pittsburgh is coming off an 8-2 win at Colorado yesterday, they scored five runs in the top of the sixth inning to break the game open. Yesterday’s win in Colorado was the finale of a six-game road trip for Pittsburgh which saw them go 3-3 against St. Louis and Colorado. Pittsburgh has won seven of the last ten matchups against Cincinnati. These teams will meet again in one week at Cincinnati. 

Tonight’s starters are Carson Spiers (0-0, 2.33 ERA as a middle reliever) for Cincinnati and rookie star Paul Skenes (3-0, 2.43 ERA, 46 strikeouts in 6 starts) for Pittsburgh. 

GAME ODDS

Moneyline:  Cincinnati +154,  Pittsburgh -184

Run Line:     Cincinnati +1.5 ( -128),  Pittsburgh -1.5 (+106)

Run Total:    over 8 (-110)   under 8 (-110)             

GAME STORYLINES: CINCINNATI

The once-proud Cincinnati Reds franchise has fallen on hard times in recent years as they’ve failed to make the playoffs after a full season since 2013. Their last postseason victory was on Oct. 7, 2012 at San Francisco. Cincinnati has shown some glimpses of hope as their 82-80 finish last season was a 20-game improvement over their abysmal 62-100 record in 2022. They also had a recent stretch earlier this month where they won 7 in a row and 9 of 11 that brought them within a game of .500.

A big reason for last season’s turnaround and the productive month of June is the play of 22-year-old star Elly De La Cruz. The second-year shortstop was called up from Triple-A Louisville with enormous hype in June 2023. ESPN rated De La Cruz as their No. 1 rated minor league prospect. He was terrific last season as a rookie batting .235 with 13 homers, 44 RBI and 35 stolen bases. 

MLB Picks 6/17 – Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates

Elly De La Cruz has been even better in year two as he’s batting .233 with 12 homers, 31 RBI and an MLB-leading 36 stolen bases. De La Cruz has already met and exceeded the lofty expectations that were placed on him as he’s shown himself to be a legit five tool – hitting, power, running, fielding and throwing – player at just 22. De La Cruz’ potential is off the charts.

Cincinnati made a big splash in free agency when they signed veteran infielder Jeimer Candelario to a 3-year, $45 million contract in the offseason. The 30-year-old third baseman posted career-high in homers (22) and RBI (70) last season between Washington and the Chicago Cubs. He’s off to a fantastic start this season as he’s batting .252 with 12 homers and 35 RBI. Candelario has been Cincinnati’s most productive hitter on the season and is having a tremendous month of June. He’s batting .355 with 6 homers, 4 doubles and 15 RBI through 14 games in June. Cruz and Candelario have carried the offense for most of the year up to this point.

Left fielder/first baseman Spencer Steer (.236, 8 HR. team-leading 42 RBI), second baseman Jonathan India (.239, 4 HR, 28 RBI) and catcher Tyler Stephenson (.250, 6 HR, 22 RBI) are three young productive hitters in Cincinnati’s lineup. The 26-year-old Steer led the Reds in homers (23) and RBI (86) last year, and leads the team in RBI this year. India was the 2021 N.L. Rookie of the Year. 

GAME STORYLINES: PITTSBURGH

Much like today’s opponent (Cincinnati), the once-proud Pittsburgh Pirates franchise has also fallen on hard times as they’ve finished last in the National League Central in four of the last five seasons. Pittsburgh’s last winning record was in 2018 (82-79), their last playoff appearance was in 2015 and their last playoff win was Oct. 6, 2013 against St. Louis. Through all the futility in recent years, Pittsburgh received some good fortune when they landed No. 1 overall pick in the talent-laden 2023 MLB draft .

With that No. 1 pick, Pittsburgh selected LSU ace Paul Skenes. The 6-foot-6, 21-year-old Skenes enters MLB as the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg in 2009 and one of the most hyped draft prospects in MLB history. Skenes had one of the most dominant seasons of all time for LSU in 2023. He finished the regular season 12-2 with a 1.69 ERA and 209 strikeouts. In the postseason, Skenes posted a 1.11 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 4 starts. He was named the College World Series Most Outstanding Player as LSU won the championship.

MLB Picks 6/17 – Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates

Paul Skenes put together a brief but dominant run through Triple-A Indianapolis where he posted a 0.99 ERA and 45:8 KK:BB over 27.1 innings in 7 starts. Pittsburgh promoted Skenes to the big-league’s on May 11, and he made his MLB debut on May 12 against the Chicago Cubs. In his highly-anticipated MLB debut, Skenes struck out seven, walked two and gave up 3 earned runs over four innings as he came away with a no decision. 

Through 6 starts this season, Paul Skenes is 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA and 46 strikeouts over 33.1 innings. He has struck out at least 7 batters in 5 of his 6 starts on the year. In his last start at St. Louis, Skenes pitched 6.1 scoreless innings and struck out 8 batters in a no-decision. Skenes actually received a standing ovation from the St. Louis crowd as he exited the game in the 6th inning. A move that seemed to draw the ire from some folks.

Paul Skenes arrival in Pittsburgh has led to unbridled optimism for a franchise that has not been to a World Series since 1979, and hasn’t had a transcended, must-see superstar player since Barry Bonds in 1992. In addition to quickly establishing himself as a dominant starting pitcher, Pittsburgh is 5-1 when Skenes starts. Skenes stellar pitching seems to elevate the production of the entire team which may indicate that winning seasons are on the way for Pittsburgh.

THE PICK: PIRATES (Run Line)

I think Skenes will deliver another dominant performance on the mound tonight in front of the home crowd and a national TV audience. Take the Pirates on the run line! 

MLB Picks 6/17 – Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates