NBA Finals Picks 6/12 / Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks

NBA Finals Picks 6/12 / Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The NBA Finals switches venues tonight for Game Three as the Dallas Mavericks (50-32, fifth in the Western Conference) host the Boston Celtics (64-18, first in the Eastern Conference) at America Airlines Center on ABC. Boston took a 2-0 series lead after outlasting Dallas 105-98 on Sunday night. Boston has now won nine consecutive postseason games and six straight against Dallas. Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite and the total is 212.5.

After a comfortable 107-89 victory in Game One, Boston needed a second-half surge to pull out a 105-98 win in Game Two. Boston missed their first eight three-point attempts in Game Two which allowed Dallas to hold the lead for the entire first quarter. This was a stark contrast from Game One where Boston began the game on fire by putting up 37 first quarter points and holding a 17-point lead. Despite the shooting woes from long distance for the entire first half, Boston led 54-51 at halftime. 

In the second half, Boston used a balanced offensive attack to knock off Dallas. Boston stretched a 3-point halftime lead to 13 late in the third quarter, and had Dallas down by double-digits for most of the fourth quarter. Dallas made a late-game rally and cut a double-digit deficit down to five with less than a minute left in the game. The Mavs had a great chance to pull within three but P.J. Washington’s dunk attempt was blocked by Derrick White. Jaylen White then scored on a layup which made the final margin seven.

SERIES RECAP: DALLAS

Luka Doncic led Dallas again in Game Two finishing with a triple-double of 32 points (12-21 FG, 4-9 3Pt, 4-8 FT), 11 rebounds, 11 assists and 4 steals in 42 minutes. It was Doncic seventh triple-double of the postseason and third over his last six games. Doncic is averaging 31 points, 10.5 rebounds, 6 assists and 3 steals on 51.1 percent shooting from the floor in the 2024 NBA Finals. 

Doncic’ magnificent performances in the Finals and throughout the postseason is remarkable when you consider he’s been hobbled by left ankle soreness and a right knee sprain for most of the playoffs. To make matters worse, Doncic suffered a thoracic (chest) contusion in Game 1 against Boston after taking a charge or diving for a loose ball. It was revealed that Doncic received a pain-killing injection ahead of Game 2, and he’ll likely need one before Game 3 tonight. 

NBA Finals Picks 6/12 / Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks

Unfortunately for Dallas, Luka Doncic has not received a lot of help through the first 2 games of the Finals. His co-star Kyrie Irving is averaging just 14 ppg on 35.1 percent shooting from the floor against Boston. He’s also missed all 8 of his three-point attempts. Irving’s subpar play is surprising when you consider he averaged 27 ppg on 49 percent shooting from the floor against Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals. Irving has now lost 12 consecutive games against Boston since he stepped on the Celtics logo during a game in May 2021.

Regular season trade deadline acquisitions P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford both had solid performances in Game 2. Washington finished with 17 points (8-13 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 4-4 FT), 7 rebounds and a block across 40 minutes. Gafford closed with 13 points (6-9 FG, 1-4 FT), 9 rebounds and a block over 23 minutes. Both players were key factors in Dallas’ somewhat unexpected run to the 2024 Finals and they’ll need similar or better production going forward if Dallas has any shot of coming back and winning this series.

A glaring stat which indicates Luka Doncic’ lack of help in these Finals is Dallas’ poor three-point shooting. Through the first two games, Luka Doncic has connected on 8 three-pointers while the rest of the team has combined for only 5. Dallas always received at least one standout performance from someone besides Luka in virtually every postseason game prior to the Finals. We’ll see if returning home can get the supporting cast going again.

SERIES RECAP:BOSTON

The first two games of the NBA Finals have demonstrated how deep and versatile the Boston Celtics are as multiple players have contributed to the 2-0 series lead, not just one all-world player. The overwhelming majority of NBA Finals teams will have one or two standout players carrying the team but this hasn’t been the case for Boston in the 2024 NBA Finals up to this point.

Boston’s resounding 18-point win in Game One was ignited by the return of star center Kristaps Porzingis, who missed about 5 weeks with a right calf strain he suffered on April 29 against the Miami Heat. Porzingis entered Game 1 in the first quarter with Boston trailing 12-11, he proceeded to score 11 first-quarter points and ignited a surge which allowed Boston to open a 37-20 lead at the end of the first quarter. 

NBA Finals Picks 6/12 / Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks

Porzingis finished Game One with 20 points (8-13 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 2-2 FT), 6 rebounds and 3 blocks in just 21 minutes. He was Boston’s second-leading scorer – to Jaylen Brown, who finished with 24 – but his presence set the tone for Boston’s dominance. All 5 starters scored in double digits for Boston in Game One. Jayson Tatum led the team in rebounds (11) and tied for the team-lead in assists with 5. 

Game Two saw another unexpected standout performance from Boston as guard Jrue Holiday scored a team-high 26 points (11-14 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 2-2 FT) and added 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal and 1 block across 41 minutes. It was just his second 20-point game of the postseason. Holiday’s scoring in the paint was critical for Boston as they struggled from beyond the arc for most of the game finishing 10-39 (25.6%). Boston acquired Holiday before the season to provide great defense, versatile scoring and championship experience, he delivered on all three on Sunday night. Holiday won a ring with the Milwaukee Bucks in 2022.

NBA Finals Picks 6/12 / Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks

Boston’s great play through the first two games of the NBA Finals could be tarnished by the announcement that Kristaps Porzingis suffered a torn medial retinaculum in his left leg. He suffered the injury in the third quarter of Game 2 when he collided with Mavs center Dereck Lively II. Porzingis is considered questionable for tonight’s game and day-to-day for the rest of the series. 

The injury is not related to the right calf strain that Porzingis injured against Miami in the opening round of the playoffs. If Porzingis is forced to miss any games, it could be the big break Dallas needs to get back into the series. 

THE PICK: DALLAS (-2.5)

The return home should be a big boost for Luka’s supporting cast. I think Dallas bounces back and takes Game Three tonight. Lay the number and take the Mavs!

NBA Finals Picks 6/12 / Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks