NBA Picks 3/13 – Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat

NBA Picks 3/13 – Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Denver Nuggets (45-20) visit the Miami Heat (35-29) tonight in an NBA Finals rematch on ESPN. Miami is a 4-point favorite and the total is 215. Tonight’s game is the second and final matchup between these teams. Denver held off visiting Miami 103-97 on Feb. 29 as Michael Porter Jr. scored a game-high 30 points and pulled down 11 rebounds across 38 minutes in the win. Denver has dominated Miami of late winning 11 of the last 12 meetings, including beating Miami in five games to win the franchise’s first NBA crown. Miami’s last regular season win against Denver was on August 1, 2020 when the NBA resumed the Covid-shortened season at the Orlando bubble.

Denver is coming off a surprisingly tough 125-119 comeback win against the depleted Toronto Raptors on Tuesday night. Toronto played without four starters in the game. Denver rallied from a 21-point third quarter deficit to pull out the win, they’ve won 10 of their last 11 games. Miami enters tonight’s contest on a three-game skid after a stunning 110-108 loss at home to the lowly Washington Wizards, who own the worst record in the NBA at 11-54. 

GAME STORYLINES: DENVER

After making a surprising run to the 2020 Western Conference Finals with a young core of players, prolonged injuries to starters Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. derailed the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Superstar center Nikola Jokic won back-to-back regular season MVPs in 2021 and 2022 but was unable to lead Denver past the second round of the playoffs. The return of Murray and Porter Jr. to full health last season resulted in a first-place finish (53-29) in the Western Conference and the franchise’s first NBA championship. Denver finished 16-4 in the playoffs last season and won 10 of their last 11 playoff games enroute to the crown. 

Superstar Nikola Jokic delivered a historic performance in the 2023 NBA Finals when he put up 30.2 points, 14 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.4 on 58.3 percent shooting from the field and 42.1 percent shooting from beyond the arc. The two-time MVP Jokic continues his stellar play this season putting up averages of 26.2 points, 12.3 rebounds, 9.2 assists, 1.3 steals on 58.2 percent shooting from the floor across 63 games. Jokic’s 21 triple-doubles ranks second in the NBA to Sacramento big man Domantas Sabonis, who has 22. 

Shooting guard Jamal Murray is Jokic’s co-star for Denver, the pair could be considered the best 1-2 combo in the NBA. After tearing his ACL in April 2021, Murray missed the 2021 postseason and the entire 2021-22 season. His return last season was crucial to Denver winning the title, especially in the postseason where Murray averaged 26.1 points, 7.1 assists and 5.7 rebounds on 47.3 percent shooting from the floor. He was spectacular in Denver’s four-games sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals when he averaged 32.5 points per game on 52 percent shooting from the floor. The 27-year-old Murray is having an excellent season in year 8 as his 21.2 points, 6.6 assists and 48.3 percent shooting from the floor are all career highs. 

Versatile and athletic forwards Michael Porter Jr. (16.6 ppg, 7 rebs, 48.4% from 2, 39.6% from 3) and Aaron Gordon (13.9 ppg, 6.4 rebs, 3.2 asts, 55.8% from 2), along with sharpshooting swingman Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (10.1 ppg, 1.3 stls, 39.6% from 3) round out a strong starting five for Denver. The 25-year-old Porter Jr. is averaging 20.1 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.9 threes while shooting 54.8 percent from the field and 40.8 percent from long distance since the All-Star break. Caldwell-Pope is averaging 9.5 points while shooting 51.9 percent from the floor and 51 percent from beyond the arc through four games in March. Gordon is averaging 14 ppg and shooting 62.5 percent form the floor in 10 games since the All-Star break.

GAME STORYLINES: MIAMI

Last season, the Miami Heat became the second team in NBA history to make the NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed, joining the 1999 New York Knicks. Miami’s improbable run to the finals was led by Jimmy Butler, who elevated his game to extraordinary heights to carry his undermanned Heat squad. Butler averaged an astounding 37.6 points per game on 59.7 percent shooting from the floor as Miami upset the top seed Milwaukee Bucks 4-1 in the first round of the 2023 playoffs. For the entire playoffs, Butler averaged 26.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.8 steals across 22 games. Butler raised his scoring average by nearly five points per game in the postseason.

Miami’s 2023-24 season appears to be playing out exactly like last year as injuries to key players have Miami currently seeded eighth in the Eastern Conference and fighting to stay out of the play-in round. Miami’s two leading scorers – forward Jimmy Butler and shooting guard Tyler Herro – have missed a slew of games due to injury. Butler has missed 19 games with injuries to his ankle, knee, and calf. Miami has actually gone 12-7 without Butler which is a testament to “Heat Culture” where the team plays hard, smart and efficient basketball regardless of who is playing. Herro has missed 28 games due to multiple foot injuries, he hasn’t played since Feb. 23 because of right foot tendinitis and will miss tonight’s game. 

Despite the injuries, six-time All-Star Jimmy Butler continues to play well in year 13. The 34-year-old Butler is 21.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.4 steals while shooting 50.4 percent from the field and 42.5 percent from long distance. Butler has averaged about 20 ppg in each of the last 10 seasons, and has elevated his game in the postseason leading Miami to NBA Finals appearances in 2020 and 2023, and an Eastern Conference Finals appearance in 2022. He’s averaged 27.1 ppg on 48.4 percent shooting from the floor in the last two postseasons which has earned him the monicker Playoff Jimmy.

All-Star center Bam Adebayo has been the most consistent and reliable Heat player over the past two seasons as the team has dealt with numerous injuries to key players. The 26-year-old Adebayo is averaging 19.9 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.1 steals and 1 block on 50.8 percent shooting from the field across 54 games. He made his third All-Star game appearance this season and was named a starter after Joel Embiid was forced to miss the contest due to a long-term knee injury. Adebayo was the first Heat player to start in the All-Star game since Dwyane Wade in 2016.

Sharpshooter Duncan Robinson (13.4 pts, 2.9 asts, 40.6% from 3), Caleb Martin (10.6 pts, 4.6 rebs, 40.3% from 3) and rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. (12.8 pts, 4 rebs, 1.1 stls, 50% from 2) have all been outstanding in supporting roles for Miami this year. Robinson is averaging 2.9 threes per game on the season as a part-time starter, he’s been starting in place of an injured Tyler Herro of late. The 23-year-old rookie Jaquez Jr. is another in a long line of Miami players who are overlooked in the draft but end up being very good when they suit up for the Heat. Miami selected Jaquez Jr. with the 18th pick in the first round of NBA draft, and he’s now fourth among rookies in scoring. He’s going to make the NBA’s All-Rookie First Team despite the modest projections coming out of UCLA.  

THE PICK: DENVER (-4)

Denver is peaking right now as they approach the stretch run for the playoffs, they’ve also dominated the Heat in recent years, Lay the Points and take the Nuggets.