Week 11 NFL Picks – The Boys Are Back

The commish saw a winning week disappear on Monday night as the 49ers couldn’t get the ball into the endzone after having first and goal from the six yard line at the end of the game.  Instead they kicked a field goal and won by 6.  Such is life in sports betting.  That gave us a 2-3 week and brings the season record in this column to 24/41 (58.53%)  Let’s get into our Weeek 11 picks.  All lines are from Wannamakeabet.com at the time of this writing.

Indy Colts +6.5 over Philly Eagles

How do you beat the Eagles?  Stop the run and run the ball.  The Commanders had the script on Monday night as they are ranked 2nd in the NFL in stopping the run and the Colts are ranked 5th.  On the flip side the Eagles are ranked 28th against the run.  Jon Taylor showed looked like a newborn horse against the Raiders last week and this run defense isn’t that bad but it’s still ranked 28th in the league.   Speaking of horses, the Colts have a new one in Jeff Saturday and if the team seems motivated.  The O-line is healthy for Matty ice today and the Colts get the cover and maybe even the win.

LA Rams + 3 over New Orleans Saints

CLV.  That’s closing line value.  And there’s a lot of it here as this game opened at Rams -3 and now they’re catching more than a field goal in some places.  Everyone is shoveling dirt on the Rams grave now that Kupp it out combined with the way the rams have been playing of late (like last week against Arizona) but the commish says hold on a second.  The Rams are only 3-6 and not out of it as nobody is running away with the NFC West.  Stafford has been practicing all week and it’s time for Allen Robinson and Van Jefferson to step up.   The Saints are about middle of the league in stopping the pass (14th).    On the flip side, the Saints number one weapon is Alvin Kamara and the Rams are ranked #4 against the run.  That means Andy Dalton has to beat me, and those are odds I like, given his QBR is 24th in the league.

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over Pittsburgh

The Bengals come in off a bye and are 0-2 in the AFC North.  They lost to the Steelers in week 1 in overtime and payback is going to be a bitch for the Steelers today as this is a much different Bengals team.  Cincy’s 8th ranked offense is going up against a Steeler defense that is not what it was earlier this year.  Yes, TJ is back and that will create pressure on Joe and slow down Mixon but it’s the secondary that Pittsburgh needs to be concerned about as Higgins, Boyd, Trent Taylor and Hurst should all be able to get yards.   And for those who think the Steeler defense will be fine, the bigger concern has to be the offense.   Ranked 22nd in the league and putting young Pickett into a division war like this won’t go well.  It should go more like the games against Buffalo and Philly, which got ugly quick and stayed that way.

Dallas Cowboys -1.5 over Minnesota Vikings

Dallas got robbed last week against the Packers and will come into this one focused and looking to get the taste of that loss out of their mouth.  The Vikings won the game of the year in Buffalo and have to be feeling some level of fatigue.  But those are just headlines.  Let’s talk about data.   Dallas has struggled against good defenses but this is not a good one as the Vikes are ranked 20th in the league.  So CD Lamb, Pollard and Shultz should pop off.  And the Dallas defense, currently ranked #2 has a chip on their shoulder after the loss to the Pack.  Demarcus Lawrence did show up at practice Friday so the foot should be good to go by game time and the defense is entirely healthy.  People ask, how could the Vikings be a dog when they’re 8-1 and Dallas is 6-3.  Simple.  They have been winning every single game in unconvincing ways and their point differential on wins is the lowest in the NFL.  Despite their record, they are middle of the pack in every single DVOA category.  Every week, they either claw their way back into it or blow a lead (usually the former) and that may have worked a miracle in Buffalo but lightning doesn’t strike twice.

LA Chargers +6.5 over KC Chiefs

The Chargers defense showed up last week in a big way against the 49ers and I’m looking for that to continue tonight for this game on the night card.   And the Charger offense, despite missing some critical pieces in WR also hung in there against the 3rd best defense in SF.    This week, they face a division rival in the Chiefs who they should have beat in week 2 but only lost by 3 on the road.   The Chiefs are 7-2 and the Chargers are 5-4 and if they are going to win this division and stay relevant in the playoff picture they must be looking at this game as must win.   Keenan Allen was a full participant in practice Friday according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.  Mike Williams appears to be a go also.  They both must realize how important it is that they’re out on the field tonight in this game.  And that’s because the Chiefs defense is ranked 22nd against the pass.  As my podcast co-host pointed out this week, the Chiefs record on the road in division games is stellar, but their ATS record is not.  Just 4-5 this year and the market continues to overvalue them again.  This is a game where they should be laying 3 or 3.5 but 6.5 is just too much to chew.