Week 10 NFL Picks – Can Seattle Keep the MoJo?

We’re moving on to week #10 in the NFL and the commish is coming off a break even week after going 2-2-1 last week.  That brings the season record to (22/36 : 61.11%).  Here’s who we are targeting with our Week 10 NFL picks.  All Week 10 NFL picks are from Wannamakeabet.com at the time of this posting.    Make sure you listen to our Week 10 NFL Picks Podcast this week to get a full preview of every single game on the card from hosts Jack and Cello.  We have narrowed it down to our top five for this column.

Seattle +2.5 over Tampa

Guten morgan.  It’s no secret the commish has fallen in love with the Hawks over the past six weeks.  But the same can’t be said for the Vegas, off-shore market makers or the general public.   There is still a belief out there that Tom Brady and his listless offense are a touchdown drive away from turning around their entire season.    Even on a week where he likely lost over 100 million when FTX imploded, but I digress.   Apparently the final drive against the Rams have given plenty of people reason to believe they’re not done yet.  But the commish feels strongly the wrong team is favored here.  Yes, Mike Evans is no longer “questionable” but he still hasn’t found the endzone since Week 4 and Cam Brate practiced this week but he likely won’t get all the targets he normally does as they ease him back in after the concussion.   Either way, Tom’s QBR is what it is… bad.  Tampa’s offense still doesn’t look right and I expect them to continue to struggle as they have not solved their offensive line problems with LG Luke Goedeke out and Brady’s aging arm.   As for the Hawks, not much needs to be said.  They’re playing great football.  The only thing negative I can say about Seattle this week is that this game in Munich is a nine hour time difference from Seattle.   But Geno and the four headed monster that is Metcalf, Lockett, Walker and Fant won’t be denied.

Tennessee -2.5 over Denver

The commish called out Tennessee last week as hefty dogs and they almost pulled off the upset.  If they only had their quarterback instead of Malik Willis, they would have beaten the Chiefs for the fourth straight time.  Since the Chiefs are arguably the best in the AFC (along with Buffalo) I’m raising my grade on the Titans after that loss.  And since they did not elevate another QB from the practice squad to the roster yesterday, it looks like Tannehill is a go for Sunday.   They are also getting back Treylon Burks from the IR, who is basically their #1 receiver and the competent AJ Brown replacement.  Without him they have struggled on offense.  Yes, Denver has a great defense, i’ll give them that.  But their offense is bottom 5 and even though Tennessee is only in the next quartile above, the recent performance of Derek Henry along with Tanne/Burks coming back has the commish believing they can cover the less than field goal this week and get the win.

Cleveland +3 over Miami

After what Justin Fields did to this Miami defense last week, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have to be salivating and getting ready to rack up performance kickers on their contracts.   I like Mike McDaniels and think he is really scheming well for Tua and the offense.  But they are fairly one dimensional as a passing offense and on the ground, whether it’s Wilson or Mostert, neither are going to rush for more than about 50 yards.  And the Browns defense has been playing better in the secondary and Denzel Ward returns to at least slow down Tyreek.  Either way, Miami’s defense is awful (ranked 27th).  The key to this game for the Browns is the same as it was for Cincy.  Defense.  If Garrett and Clowney can have high win % numbers on their pass rushes they’re going to make life hell for Tua.   And Miami cannot rush the QB on a good day and that means Jacoby should have plenty of time (when they’re not running) to get the ball to his receivers.  Miami has been over performing lately.  Sunday they come back down to earth.

Green Bay +4.5 over Dallas

The commish has not been shy about his distaste for Aaron Rodgers leadership this season on the weekly Podcast.   But we’re leaning on history here in that Dallas has really struggled to beat the Packers at Lambeau in recent history (3-7 L10 at Lambeau) And even thought I’m not a huge trends player with this big of a lookback window, I believe the Packers season is on the line today and this is a must win game.  Unlike Tampa, the Packers offense continues to rack up good numbers but they just can’t put the ball into the endzone.   And with Aaron Jones finally healthy and Lazard also tuned up, the Pack will be almost at full strength today in front of the home crowd.   LT Bhaktiari was limited in practice this week but he’s a go also.    Dallas is very good, don’t get me wrong.  But in such an efficient market, I see this is a great time to sell high on them and buy low on Green Bay.

San Francisco – 7.5 over LA Chargers

The 49ers are finally healthy across the board.  Debo is back, which makes this offense absolutely lethal leaving Jimmy as the only weak link.  But on the other side of the ball today, we have the Chargers without Mike Williams or Keenan Allen.   And RT Trey Pipkins is also hobbled.   Have fun blocking Nick Boza.  That leaves Herbert without many credible options.   Josh Palmer is going to have to be the #1 receiver.  He did fine last week against Atlanta but this is not the Atlanta defense and I don’t see this going well.  I don’t usually like to lay this much wood, even with a team at home but coming off a bye I just see this as a runaway train today as the 49ers arsenal will be in full form in front of the home crowd.