Superbowl LV Prediction – Chiefs / Bucs

We have come to the end of the strangest NFL season of my lifetime.  Thankfully, the season unfolded as scheduled despite the Covid19 pandemic and we’re ready for our Superbowl LV Prediction between the Chiefs / Bucs.  Before we get to that, we want to thank all of our members for coming out this season, especially because we weren’t sure how it all would unfold or if the season would even be completed.

Game Prediction

Kansas City Chiefs – 3 over Tampa Bay Bucs

This is an efficient market.  And there is very little uncertainty coming into this final game of the year.  There is no edge in this line, it’s accurate.  If anything there is slight value in the Chiefs only laying 3 rather than 3.5.

And because of this I would argue you should not bet a lot of money on this game and rather try to find value in some of the props.  Just sit back and watch the game and enjoy it because it should be a great one.   That said, there will be more money wagered on this game than any other sporting event the entire year in the United States just because people love to have action here and they love the office pool and 100 million people just want to have some fun as they watch.

That said, many of you are in the final game of your season at Wannamakeabet.com and so therefore you will have a lot at stake based on the outcome of this game.

The Kansas City Chiefs are the best team in the NFL and the AFC is the better division between the two.  All season long, the Chiefs were criticized for not beating teams in convincing fashion.   But remember, this was relative to the pointspreads that they were expected to cover.  Numbers that were typically more than 7 points.  It was not until the AFC Championship game between the Bills that they were finally only laying a field goal and as we all know, they covered that handily 38-24.  This dynamic offense, when healthy, led by Mahomes, Kelce and Tyreek Hill is simply… unstoppable.

Quarterback Advantage

Mahomes is healthy and his foot and neck have had two weeks to recover from the slight trauma experienced during the playoffs.    Because of this, he’s the better quarterback in this game.  Is Brady the GOAT.  Yes.  But he has started slow in SuperBowls and that was when he was young.  He has struggled against Spagnolo defenses (Giants) and again, if you can get pressure on Brady he has zero mobility.  He also has been turning the ball over at a higher rate this season than he ever did with the Patriots.

Coaching Advantage

I give a big edge to Andy Reid here.  Arians was the worst coach in the playoffs when they started and so I give him credit for still standing but that doesn’t change the fact that he may call some plays and will be slow to adjust and you may find yourself coaching your bet if you take the Bucs.  Andy Reid, on the other hand, has a long career of getting to this moment and he clearly is coaching his best football and his supporting staff led by Spagnolo is top notch.

Outcomes

There are many outcomes that I see happening in this game and they all involve the Chiefs winning the game.  Because even if they fall behind, as we all know, they have the ability to strike fast and come back into any game.  And if they happen to be ahead, in a game of this magnitude, they have the ability to keep pouring it on and torch the Bucs.

I also look to the first game of the year to help me handicap this game.  In the first game of the year, when Chiefs were laying -3.5 it was a lopsided first half and then the Chiefs played conservative in the 2nd half and there were 14 garbage points scored in the 4th quarter.  I see a similar story for this Super Bowl with one difference, the Chiefs won’t let them back into it by playing conservative because this is a Super Bowl and Andy won’t sit back and leave a door open.

The “Total” Prediction – Over 56.5

Do you think both teams can score 28 points in this game?  I do.  And if that happens, we are right at the number.  Add one more field goal and you have the over.  As we have seen many times this season, both teams have lethal offenses that can easily score 30 points by themselves and I see this game going over the total with ease.

The bucs defense is softest in the middle and that is exactly where Kelce thrives.  They also love to Blitz and the Chiefs do so well against the blitz it’s scary how quickly Mahomes can get rid of the ball when pressured and they have so many weapons that can gash you if you sell out with blitzes.

And the Chiefs tend to get into high scoring games like the AFC Championship game where it becomes a touchdown contest and given this is the Super Bowl and the appetite for risk is higher than normal, it should unfold with a lot of points.

That wraps up our Super Bowl LV Prediction – Chiefs / Bucs.  Good luck with your selection and winning your league and we hope to see you all at the site during the offseason.