The commish went 2-2 last week. I’m still shocked at how quickly the Ravens game collapsed after Lamar threw a pick six and then got knocked out of the game. The Browns covered easily and had a chance to win the game and Drew Brees is done and once again, I underestimated Tom Brady. But I nailed the Packers and got the easy W there. Speaking of the Packers, let’s turn our attention to this week and the AFC / NFC Championship Predictions. Here’s who the commish likes this week.
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Packers – 3 over Tampa
How much do you think it matters that Tampa is playing their third week in a row on the road? I think there is a bit of signal in this not being a good thing for Tampa, especially given they are a Florida based team. This is literally the polar opposite from a climate perspective. Aaron Rodgers has incredible motivation in this game in a career that has seen him struggle to get the respect he feels like he deserves. Tampa did a lot better than most people thought they would do in their first season and it was a good run, but I think it ends this Sunday in Green Bay. LeFleur can outcoach the opposition in this one, and Tom Brady is having a great year DESPITE his team, not because of how good the supporting cast and coaching staff is. It all unravels this Sunday in Lambeau and the Pack head to the Super Bowl in a season that continues to be motivated by one thing, the Packers drafting Drew Love and Aaron thinking the end is near. The Pack have played great all season despite a couple of hiccups (one being in Tampa so there’s revenge here) and the other on the road at Indy. But this is the ultimate statement game. Tom has plenty left in the arm but Aaron has plenty left in the arm and legs. If the Pack can get a pass rush going in this game, plus the weather and the offensive scheme and adjustments should be the difference and not having to lay the hook is big.
Chiefs – 3 over Buffalo
Here’s an interesting stat that I really like in this game. Patrick Mahomes career rushing attempts per game IN PLAYOFF GAMES is 5.33. That is two above his season average. He is the ultimate bailout option for this offense when nobody is open and every single time he seemingly has no options, he takes off out of the pocket and runs for a first down. Now the line in this game is lower than it has been for a Chiefs game all year. Finally, there is value in betting on the Chiefs and that’s why I’m backing them here. There is additional value in the sense that the betting public thinks Mahomes is hurt but I’m thinking he’s going to come out looking better than ever. That, combined with superior coaching from Andy Reid will have them ready to advance to the Super Bowl again. Buffalo’s defense looked better than they did all year last week, which is another reason they are only getting three here. But that’s because Baltimore’s offense was predictable. It was the Lamar tuck and run show once again. And the Lamar doesn’t have a good arm story yet again. The Ravens were inside the 30 yard line four times and didn’t score and it was clear the Buffalo defense, despite having a good blitz scheme and getting a key turnover, still had major problems stopping the run between the 20s. The Chiefs will kill them in the red zone. Lay the small number and take the Chiefs to the Super Bowl.
Good luck, see you at the site this weekend.
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