Here are the NFL Week 6 Early Line looks from the commish and there are some tasty numbers hanging out there for the taking.
Carolina / Bears – Under 43.5 – Two very good defenses here. I especially noticed that the Bears have an excellent pass defense. Two teams ranked in the bottom half of the league from an offensive standpoint (27th and 14th respectively) and Chicago ranked 4th on defense. Feels like this one stays low scoring all the way.
Steelers / Browns – over 50 – Two very capable offenses here ranked 9th and 13th and on the defensive side, Browns are weak and Steelers appear to be better on paper than they actually are in terms of scoreboards and totals staying Under the number. I see this one getting bet up throughout the week as we head toward kick in the classic AFC North match and a revenge game for Myles Garrett Helmet gate.
Baltimore – 7 over Philly has gone to -9 and so teasing this down or getting in before it gets to 10 is probably a smart move. Nothing on Philly’s defense suggests they will be able to stop this train and depending on what defensive ranking system you use, Philly’s defense is at or near the bottom. This will likely get ugly early for Wentz and company.
Dallas +2.5 at home against Arizona – Andy Dalton with preparation plus the historical dominance here, feels a bit like the wrong team is favored. The line came out at -3 and immediately went to 2.5 and so we have a Monday Night Home Dog situation, which has a strong historical win % as we all know. Slightly overvalued based on a 30 point beating of the Jets. Dallas defense in the second half looked semi decent. Over 53.5 worth a look too.
Cincinnati +10.5 at Indianapolis – I’m SHOCKED at this number. It reflects two things going in the wrong direction here. Cincy getting blown out by the Ravens and the the Colts being over-rated. Back door Burrow will be licking his chops here and if you can get more than a TD in this game it’s a great number, much less getting 10! Rivers proved he’s a telegraphing machine and when pressured, will continue to make the big mistake.
Tune back in later this week for more winners by the Commish
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