The Commish is hot. Almost as hot as OVERs have been in the NFL this season. I nailed two of them last week with easy winners on both Cleveland / Dallas and Houston / Minnesota. Last week I went 4 / 5 in my picks on this blog and now I’m looking to ride the hot hand with selections from this week’s card. So without further delay, here are my Week 5 NFL Predictions.
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Thursday Night NFL Special
Tampa -3.5 over Bears
I have no idea what money has moved this line down from 5 mid week to the current 3.5 but I’m not backing Nick Foles and one of the leagues most inept offenses against arguably the best defense in the NFL from Tampa. True, they had a bit of a trip up last week against the Chargers but that just creates value here despite the injuries on offense for the Bucs. Lay the 3.5.
Houston – 6 over Jacksonville
Sometimes all it takes is to fire the Head Coach to get back on track. The Bill O’Brien era in Houston has come to an end. Enter Romeo Crennell, a defensive coach journeyman. Nothing has really changed except the psyche of this team, and that’s exactly what’s needed this week to get them their first win and an easy cover over the hapless Jags.
Arizona – 7 over Jets
What a perfect matchup for Arizona. Joe Flacco is starting at quarterback. Let that settle in for a second. This guy is completely done career wise and he’s got a screwed up neck and back to boot. He is going to be demolished in this game and likely knocked out of the game, which actually presents some risk because the backup can come in and ruin this. Arizona has hurt bettors in the past two weeks which actually presents nice value here and money has come in to back the Jets early which I don’t understand at all. Kyler Murray gets right against this team this week.
Steelers / Philly Over 44
How is this total not closer to 50? The Eagles defense is atrocious and the Steeler’s can score on anyone. On the flip side Wentz can do his magic and will find Ertz a plenty down field as he always does. I know the Steelers defense is top ranked but there seems to be a lot of value here in the the low 40s on this one as I can see the Steeler’s easily scoring 28-35 on their own with Big Ben at the wheel and Philly will get in the end zone at least once or twice.
Dallas -9 over NY Giants over 54.5
There is absolutely nothing the Giants will be able to do to stop this train. The Browns gave up 37 to this offense and they have a real pass rush. The Giants have no no pass rush and their defensive secondary is even thinner. On the flip side of the ball, you saw what Cleveland did to this defense with all the injuries and throw in the fact this is a big rivalry and you have to figure the Giants will get into the end zone at least once or twice. This one goes flying over the number.
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