College Football Free Pick – Utah State at Air Force

This week’s college football free pick is brought to you by BettorIQ.  This week’s game analysis is brought to you by handicapper Eddie Walls and features Utah State +3.5 at Air Force on Saturday night at 10:30 PM.

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Heading into the season, Utah State was arguably the only Mountain West team that was capable of competing with Boise State. The Aggies have the best non-Power 5 quarterback in the country in Jordan Love as well as an all-conference running back and receiver.

But with four offensive linemen having departed it was clear they would lean more on the defensive side of the ball. And this made perfect sense considering the the entire front seven returned. And so far, it’s played out perfect as the run defense is allowing only 3.2 yards per carry.

Air Force’s offense continues to click with the Falcons averaging 37 ppg and over 6 ypp. But the defense has slumped at times, specifically against the pass .

They allowed 400 yards to Hawaii on 20-of-27 passing and 209 yards to Fresno. Even Navy completed 6-of-8 to come from behind in a 2-minute drive. Boise State and San Jose State also had zero problems completing pass after pass. Love will be the best quarterback Air Force has faced to date. Making matters worse is that both Falcon starting quarterbacks are banged up.

Sanders is unlikely to play as he hasn’t suited up in three weeks and Hammonds was injured (again) in the first quarter vs. Hawaii. They will be more than likely forced to play Mike Schmidt against the best run defense in the MWC.

Four weeks ago we saw Utah State as a -4 favorite at San Diego State and besides a loss to LSU on the road, the Aggies haven’t done anything to justify this type of line. Take Utah State +3.5 and enjoy the game.  

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