Super Bowl LIII Top Betting Prop Picks
Even causal sports bettors are aware of just how big the NFL’s Super Bowl is when it comes to the overall amount of money that is wagered on this game. Easily the biggest, single-day sports betting event of the year, the Super Bowl matches all the hype on the field with all of the action the online sportsbooks are taking on this one game.
This year’s Super Bowl is shaping up to be a good one with the New England Patriots set as 2.5-point betting favorites against the Los Angeles Rams. The total line for Sunday’s 6:30 p.m. kickoff in Atlanta at Mercedes-Benz Stadium has settled in at 56.5 points.
A big reason why any Super Bowl does generate so much betting revenue is the grocery list of prop bets that have been released in conjunction with everything surrounding this game both on and off the field. Sifting through this immense collection to find the best betting value in a few select prop bet options can be rather time consuming. For that reason, I have done all the heavy lifting with a scoring prop and a team prop offering the best value in the betting odds.
Top Super Bowl LIII Scoring Prop
The trick to betting any scoring prop is to visualize how you see a particular matchup playing out and then place your wagers accordingly. One of the most basic scoring props for Super Bowl LIII also happens to one of the most valuable plays.
The betting odds that a touchdown will be the first score of this Sunday’s Super Bowl have been set at -190. The odds that the first score by either team will be a field goal or safety have been set at +165. The rational behind this prop is two high-powered offenses marching right down the field and scoring seven points on their first possession.
Going back to the conference title games, New England shutout the most potent scoring team in the NFL for the first two quarters. Los Angeles forced New Orleans to kick a pair of field goals in the Saints’ first two possessions of the NFC title game.
Each team’s defense once again shines early on Sunday adding quite a bit of value to the far more favorable odds for the field goal/safety option in this Super Bowl prop.
Top Super Bowl LIII Team Prop
You can bet on just about anything pertaining to this particular matchup from a team standpoint. My top-valued team prop centers on the OVER/UNDER for the number of passing first downs by Los Angeles. The total has been set at 13.5 with the betting odds favoring the OVER at -120. The betting odds for UNDER 13.5 are set at an even-money +100.
Third-year Rams’ quarterback Jared Goff is a central figure in this matchup for obvious reasons. He threw for 4,688 yards and 32 touchdowns in the regular season. This works out to be an average of 293 passing yards a game. He fell back to 186 passing yards in a playoff win against Dallas before throwing for 297 yards in the overtime win against New Orleans.
A much bigger part of the Rams’ offense in these two postseason games was a rushing attack that piled up 350 yards on 74 attempts. This works out to be an average of 4.7 yards a run. CJ Anderson actually led the way with 167 yards on 39 carries followed by Todd Gurley running the ball 20 times for 125 total yards.
I am going with the +100 odds that the total passing first downs by the Rams stays UNDER 13.5 for two basic reasons. First, Los Angeles has already proven it can turn to its running game to move the ball down the field while converting first downs along the way. Second, keeping New England quarterback Tom Brady on the sidelines for as long as possible is another key strategy to pulling off the upset.
And those are just a few of our Super Bowl LIII Top Betting Prop Picks.
David Schwab is a contributing writer for Wannamakeabet.com