The Weekly Contrarian: NFL Week #12

By Ryan Somers – Wannamakeabet Staff Writer

First, hope you all had a great Thanksgiving! Second, let’s review last week before dipping into some West Coast love. NY Giants played a very solid game at home vs the Chiefs who are a team that is reeling after a hot start. Don’t look now, but those LA Chargers might steal this division after a terrible start to the season. Thankfully the Giants covered since it’s the only place I made a profit last week. On to the Browns. The Browns do everything humanely possibly to not cover for us. How about a fumble returned for a touchdown which gave Jacksonville the cover with two minutes to go.  Got burned by them again and I promise you I will not be going back to them this week. Finally, the Cowboys. Yikes, the Cowboys are finished just like all the Thanksgiving food at my house. I mean can it get any worse for them, they look terrible. Enough about last week, lets focus on this week, and hopefully do better.




This week is some tough sledding for some contrarian plays. The first thing I look for is a team getting a small percentage of the bets and getting a lot more of the money placed on them. As of Friday night, there are NO teams getting less than 35% percent of the overall bets with a larger percentage of the money being place on them. I’m hoping Sunday morning there will be some steam moves on teams to help us find the best value plays, and if so I will update you.

Carolina @ NY Jets +5.5

I should probably mention that I am not a fan or believe in SCAM newton at all. I think Carolina is an overrated football team. Yes, I know the statistics claim they have been better recently and that the Jets were playing better football at the beginning of the season. With both teams coming off the bye and being fresh I just have a gut feeling that the NY Jets defense is going to show up this week. I also believe people are over valuing Carolina’s last performance against my favorite team the Miami Dolphins. Miami is just a terrible team. I think Carolina’s last performance is why everyone is putting their money on Carolina with currently 81% of the bets on them and 86% of the money on those Panthers. Those numbers are sooooo HIGH and when I see lopsided numbers like that and it doesn’t involve the Patriot‘s I’m inclined to take the other team. So be brave and stand with me and take the NY Jets at home.

Jacksonville @ Arizona +5.5

As I mentioned last week I don’t believe in Blake Bortles. Just like last week, I DEFINETELY don’t believe in Blake Bortles on the road. I’m going with Cleveland blew the cover, rather than Jacksonville getting the cover on the road. Let’s start with the injuries on Jacksonville’s defense. I am pretty sure their star cornerback Jalen Ramsey isn’t going to play, and they have a couple other banged up starters on defense, which should help Arizona. I also think the Arizona Defense has an advantage over the Jacksonville offense. Arizona is 6th most successful defense vs the run and the 10th best defense vs the pass. I trust Patrick Peterson and that secondary more than I trust Bortles and those wide receivers. Jacksonville has also gotten less efficient on offense as the season has gone along. For the season Jacksonville is right around 20th in the league in offensive success. Since week 9 Jacksonville has had one of the worst offenses in the league ranking 27th out of 32 teams. After looking at the opening line and the current line I see that Jacksonville is getting 75% of the bets and the money while that line has dropped by half a point numerous times throughout the week. It looks like there is some Sharp Money coming in on Arizona and I’m not the only one that thinks the Arizona Cardinals will cover. I will go as far as say that Arizona is my Contrarian Lock of the Week.

Seattle @ San Francisco +6.5

Who doesn’t love a division game?! I guess it isn’t this game, since it has one of the least amount of bets placed on it this weekend. This is another game where Seattle is getting all the money placed on them, receiving 88% of the money and over 85% of the bets. I think taking Seattle this week is purely a square play. First let’s look at all those injuries on defense. Seattle is missing players at every level. No Cliff Avril, no Kam Chancellor, or neither of their starting cornerbacks Griffin or Sherman. Add the fact they are on a short week on the road against a team that they only beat by 3 in their first matchup while at home. Let’s be honest it’s really hard to sweep a division opponent in the NFL, on top of the fact that Seattle’s offense has regressed throwing the ball since the beginning of the season. For the season they are ranked 9th in passing rate and 17th in explosive pass rating. Over the last 3 weeks in those same categories they are 16th and 23rd. I like fading teams that are trending downward that the public isn’t on. I like the chances of the 49ers to keep this one close and under a touchdown.

Last week record 1-2

 

 

 

 

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