NFL Best Bets for Week 10 by Nicholas Browne, Wannamakeabet Staff Writer
Los Angeles Chargers +5.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Los Angeles is coming off a bye week following a half point ATS loss in New England. The Jags are coming off an emotional 16 point home win against the Bengals. We’re dealing with small sample sizes, but these samples support logical home – away theories. The Jaguars have historically performed below average at home, lending to the idea that their home field advantage is overrated by the market. Since 2003, Jacksonville is 49-61-1 against the spread. The line will account for the fact that the Jags have been a pitiful team for most of the last two decades, but their significant underperformance at home tells us to look for valuable spots to fade Jacksonville at home. The Jags have been a Joe’s best friend the last two weeks, covering each game comfortably. At home, though, even this year the Jags are 1-2 ATS. The LA Chargers playing in a soccer stadium have a similar issue (1-3 at home ATS in 2017). The Chargers are playing without an advantage that most every other team has – a true home field. Few bettors are jumping to play the Chargers after seeing them fail so consistently with an assumed home-field. This means we should look for spots to find value on them when they play on the road (2-1-1 ATS on the road in 2017). The opening line on this game was Jacksonville -4, pushed to -5 by Jacksonville momentum. Take the rested Chargers and their superior pass rush against an overrated Bortles-led Jags team.
Chargers win 23 – 20
Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 at Tennessee Titans
The flip-side of our emotional Jaguars win. AJ Green was ejected early in a game the Bengals were never competitive in. The Titans are coming off of two close wins against the Browns and Ravens. They failed to cover both. We have a Pros vs Joes match-up here. Always side with the Pros. The Titans are responsible for 74% of the tickets bet, but only 58% of the cash. That means the big dogs are on Cinci. Don’t be a square, take the extra 1.5 points above the typical home field and look for the Bengals to respond after an embarrassing loss.
Titans win 20 – 17
New Orleans Saints -3 at Buffalo Bills
This one is simple. Drew Brees and New Orleans on the road with the forecast showing a “Feels-like” temperate in the high 30’s. Another point for Buffalo; the Pro’s love catching 3 at home with this team that has run the ball so successfully in the Tyrod Taylor era. A slight majority of the tickets are on the Bills (56%), but 70% of the cash is riding on them. Most markets are charging -120 to get the full 3 points with Buffalo. Vegas is sick of the big Buffalo bets rolling in and are looking to shift exposure to New Orleans. Don’t fall for it! Find the best price on Buffalo and lock it in.
Bills win 28 – 24
Nicholas Browne is a Wannamakeabet Staff Writer