NFL Picks 11/1 – Browns @ Steelers

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Long-time, bitter rivals matchup today in a high-stakes AFC North showdown as the Cleveland Browns (5-2) visit the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) at Acrisure Stadium on CBS. The winner of this game will gain sole possession of first place in the ultra-competitive AFC North division. Today’s contest is the second and final regular season meetings between the teams, Cleveland upset visiting Pittsburgh 27-24 in overtime on Oct. 1.

Pittsburgh has won 10 straight regular season games at home against Cleveland dating back to 2016. But Cleveland did drill the Steelers 48-37 in Pittsburgh in an AFC Wild Card (1st round) playoff game during the 2020-21 season. It was Cleveland’s first playoff win since the 1994 season.

Pittsburgh is a 3.5-point favorite and the total is 38.5.

Cleveland escaped with a 27-24 win at Tennessee (1-6) last Sunday. Andre Szmyt hit a 32-yard field goal as time expired to win it for the Browns. Szmyt’s game-winning field goal was set up by a 4-play, 55-yard drive over the final 58 seconds of regulation after Tony Pollard’s third touchdown run tied the game at 24. Deshaun Watson’s 3 straight completions and a Titans penalty got the Browns in field goal range.

The Titans jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, before Cleveland scored the next 17 points to lead 17-14 at the half. The game went back and forth in the second half before the Browns got the walk-off win.

Deshaun Watson completed 25 of 36 passes for 308 yards and an interception. He added 19 rushing yards on 3 carries and a rushing touchdown. Rookie wideout KC Concepcion recorded career-highs of 10 receptions and 129 yards for Cleveland in the win. Second-year running back Quinshon Judkins rushed for a season-high 96 yards on 17 carries, and added 2 rushing touchdowns for the Browns.

All five of Cleveland’s wins this season have been by 4 points or less.

Pittsburgh defeated New Orleans 16-10 last Sunday in Paris, France. It was the NFL’s first regular-season game in France. Aaron Rodgers completed 19 of 30 passes for 212 yards and a touchdown in the win. Running back Jaylen Warren rushed for a team-high 101 yards on 18 carries. He added 4 catches for 36 receiving yards.

The Steelers defense held New Orleans to a total of 18 rushing yards on 17 carries. Pittsburgh has won three in a row since their loss at Cleveland on Oct. 1.

Ever since the Cleveland Browns were reactivated and returned to the NFL in 1999, they’ve been arguably the worst franchise of all the four major North American Sports leagues (NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL). The Browns have recorded only one playoff win and made just 3 playoff appearances in the 26 seasons since their return in 1999. It seems as if everything the Browns have done over the past 26 years has failed miserably. Whether its the players performance on the field or management’s decisions off the field, the end result equaled more and more losses.

It looked like the Browns were heading for another horrible season in 2026 when they made two controversial personnel moves in the offseason. The first was trading their All-World defensive end and the 2025 AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett to the Los Angeles Rams on June 1. Garrett amassed 23 sacks last year, which set an NFL’s single-season record.

Cleveland received talented edge rusher Jared Verse, a 2027 1st round pick, a 2028 2nd round pick and a 2029 3rd round pick in exchange for Garrett. The overwhelming majority of NFL observers viewed the trade as being lopsided in favor of the Rams.

Cleveland’s second controversial move was naming Deshaun Watson as its starting quarterback on Aug. 24 during the preseason. In March 2022, the Browns signed Watson to a fully guaranteed 5-year, $230 million contract despite Watson dealing with contract issues with Houston and legal issues off the field. Watson’s first four years with the Browns were horrific as he’s either been sidelined with an assortment of injuries or not played well when he was on the field.

Trading Myles Garrett and naming Deshaun Watson as the starting quarterback seemed to indicate that the Cleveland Browns were waiving the white flag on the 2026 season before it even started. Las Vegas agreed that the Browns would be terrible in 2026 as their over/under for wins was set at 5.5, which was amongst the lowest projections in the NFL.

But in a shocking turn of events, Deshaun Watson has resembled his pre-2021 form and the Browns are playing very well this year. Cleveland enters today’s game in a tie for first place atop the AFC North division at 5-2. Cleveland has already exceeded last season’s win total (3), and are in position to claim their first division title since 1989.

On the season, Deshaun Watson has passed for 1,482 yards with 7 touchdowns to 3 interceptions on 64.8 percent completions through 7 games. He’s rushed for 215 yards and a touchdown. In addition to Watson’s wonderful play, he’s shown himself to be clutch by leading game-winning, fourth-quarter drives in all 5 of Cleveland’s win.

The Browns possess an excellent, young foursome of skill position players in rookie wideouts Denzel Boston (team-leading 372 YDS, 3 TD in 7 gms) and KC Concepcion (315 YDS in 7 gms), along with second-year running back Quinshon Judkins (317 RUSH YDS, 110 REC YDS, 3 TD in 6 gms) and second-year tight end Harold Fanin Jr. (257 YDS in 7 gms). All four players are 23-year-old or younger, which means they could form an explosive and exceptional unit for many years together going forward.

If the Browns can get the right quarterback — whether its Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders or someone on another team or currently in college — they could have a high-octane offense that would be hard for any team to contain when you look at the superb talent of 22-year-old Denzel Boston, 22-year-old KC Concepcion, 22-year-old Harold Fanin Jr. and 23-year-old Quinshon Judkins.

The 2026 season marked a new era for the Pittsburgh Steelers after long-time head coach Mike Tomlin stepped down last season after coaching the team for 19 seasons from 2007-2025. The Steelers handed over the reigns to Mike McCarthy, who previously coached the Green Bay Packers from 2006-2018, and the Dallas Cowboys from 2020-2024. McCarthy won a Super Bowl with Green Bay during the 2010-11 season.

Mike McCarthy taking the Steelers job reunites him with 42-year-old starting quarterback and future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers. McCarthy coached Rodgers in Green Bay for 13 seasons from 2006-2018. He was Rodgers’ head coach when Rodgers first became Green Bay’s starting quarterback in 2008. Rodgers announced 2026 would be his final NFL season last May, and it is believed that he lobbied for Pittsburgh to hire McCarthy.

The aforementioned Aaron Rodgers signed a one-year deal with the Steelers last year at the age of 41. He guided the Steelers to a 10-7 record and the AFC North division title, but the fourth-seeded Steelers were thumped by the fifth-seeded Houston Texans 30-6 at home in the Wild Card round. Rodgers mulled retirement after last season, but opted to return for a final season in 2026.

The 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers has passed for 1,699 yards with 13 touchdowns to 5 interceptions on 61.6 percent completions through 7 games this season. He’s still a formidable quarterback in his 22nd NFL season. Time will tell whether Rodgers’ 42-year-old body can sustain and maintain another 10 regular season games, plus the playoffs.

Running back Jaylen Warren has emerged as Pittsburgh’s top skill position player this season. He’s rushed for a team-high 561 yards with 2 total touchdowns. His 294 receiving yards ranks second on the team. The fifth-year, Oklahoma State product is on pace to finish with career-highs in rushing yards, receiving yards and yards per carry. Warren was expected to be in a time-share with free agent signee Rico Dowdle, but Dowdle suffered a dislocated toe in Week 2 that sidelined him for 3 weeks. This allowed Warren to assume the lead back role.

The Steelers were expected to have a revamped passing attack with the addition of Michael Pittman Jr., who they acquired from the Indianapolis Colts. The Steelers then gave Pittman a three-year, $59 million extension after six very good seasons with the Colts. Unfortunately, Pittman’s debut campaign with the Steelers has been a disaster as he’s been unable to establish a connection with Aaron Rodgers and dealt with a nagging foot issue for the entire season.

Michael Pittman Jr. was placed on the injured reserve on Oct. 10 due to his foot issue and has missed Pittsburgh’s last 4 games. He’s not expected back until Nov. 15 (Week 10) at the earliest. Pittman totaled just 7 catches for 89 yards in the 3 games he played this season.

The loss of Pittman further damages an already problematic Pittsburgh passing attack because top wideout DK Metcalf has yet to show the same explosiveness in his 2 seasons with the Steelers that he did with the Seattle Seahawks over his first 6 NFL seasons. Rookie second-rounder Germie Bernard (254 REC YDS, 1 TD) has played very well in the absence of Michael Pittman Jr. and could be emerging as one of the NFL’s top rookies this year.

Pittsburgh’s historically vaunted defense logged an uncharacteristically down season a year ago, when they ranked 26th out of 32 teams in total defense and gave up 22.8 ppg, which placed them in the middle-of-the-pack. The Steelers defense has reverted back to its traditional dominant ways in 2026, as they currently rank 5th in total defense and points allowed per game (19.7).

All-Pro linebacker T.J. Watt continues to anchor Pittsburgh’s defense with his exemplary play. The 32-year-old, 6-time All-Pro and 2021 NFL Defensive Player of the Year has amassed 17 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 1 pick-six, 1 forced fumble and a fumble recovery through 7 games this season. Watt remains one of the NFL’s elite defensive players in year 10.

Cleveland’s 5 wins this season have been by 4 points or less, and their 2 losses were by 24 points (at JAX) and by 5 (at NYJ), respectively. Despite their 5-2 record, I don’t think the Browns are ready to knock off a veteran-ladened Steelers team in Pittsburgh in a high-stakes game. The Steelers should also be motivated by revenge because of the 27-24 overtime loss to Cleveland earlier in the year. Lay the Points…Steelers 31, Browns 17.