NFL Picks 10/4 – Chiefs @ Raiders

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Week Four of the 2026 NFL season presents a battle of undefeated, division rivals as the Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) visit the surprising Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) at Allegiant Stadium on CBS. This will be the first of two regular season meetings between the AFC West combatants. The Chiefs and Raiders will match up for a final time in the regular season finale in Week 18. 

Las Vegas picked up a 14-12 victory against Kansas City at home when these teams last met in the 2025 regular season finale on Jan. 4, 2026. The Chiefs have won 9 of the last 11 against the Raiders dating back to the 2020 season. 

Kansas City is a 4.5-point favorite and the total is 47.5.

WHAT BOTH TEAMS DID IN WEEK 3

Kansas City won 24-10 at winless Miami (0-3) last week. Patrick Mahomes completed a highly-efficient 20 of 24 (83.3%) passes for 246 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Mahomes completed a 48-yard pass to Travis Kelce on Kansas City’s first offensive play of the game. Kelce finished with 2 catches for 59 yards and a touchdown. Kenneth Walker III rushed for 80 yards rushing on 18 carries and 2 touchdowns. 

Las Vegas rallied for a 35-27 win at New Orleans (1-2) last week. The Raiders overcame an 11-point, third quarter deficit (27-16) to defeat the Saints. Las Vegas scored the final 19 points of the game. With  last week’s victory in New Orleans, the Raiders have already matched their win total (3) from last season.

Veteran Kirk Cousins was terrific for a third straight game, completing 22 of 33 passes for 248 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. Superstar tight end Brock Bowers finished with team-highs of 10 catches and 116 yards, along with a receiving touchdown in his season debut. The third-year tight end had no problem getting acclimated with his new quarterback Kirk Cousins.

GAME STORYLINES: KANSAS CITY

Last season, the mighty Kansas City Chiefs became mortal as they finished with a 6-11 record and missed the playoffs entirely. Kansas City’s 11 losses was their most since 2012 when they went 2-14. The Chiefs missed the playoffs for the first time since the 2014 season.

Since Patrick Mahomes took over as Kansas City’s starting quarterback in 2018, the Chiefs went on an unparalleled run of success that saw them win 3 Super Bowls (2019, 2022, 2023) and make a total of 5 Super Bowl appearances. So, last season’s 6-11 record was a stunning development when you consider the astronomical amounts of success that Kansas City achieved with Mahomes as their starting quarterback. 

Kansas City’s inability to win close games, their lack of explosive playmakers on offense, and a somewhat porous defense led to their demise last season. The 2025 season unofficially came to an end when Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL during a 16-13 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers at home in Week 15. Kansas City had slight playoffs hopes as they entered the Chargers game with a 6-7 record, but losing the game and Mahomes suffering a season-ending injury essentially vanquished their playoff hopes. The Chiefs went on to lose their final 3 games of the year without Mahomes and ended the 2025 campaign on a 6-game losing skid. 

Kansas City’s offseason was quite eventful as questions arose about when Patrick Mahomes would return to the field after tearing his ACL, and whether 36-year-old, stalwart tight end Travis Kelce would retire. The answers were positive on both fronts for the Chiefs as Mahomes’ rehab went well enough that he was able to start the season-opener, and Kelce announced he would return for a 13th NFL season.

In addition to the return of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, Kansas City signed star running back Kenneth Walker III to a three-year, $45 million dollar deal in March. The former Seahawk running back was fresh off of being named the Super Bowl LX (60) MVP when Seattle hammered New England 29-13. The 25-year-old Walker topped the 1,000-yard mark in 2 of his first 4 NFL seasons — all with Seattle. 

The signing of Kenneth Walker III has ended up being a game-changer for the Chiefs as he’s gotten off to a spectacular start. Walker’s debut with the Chiefs saw him rush for a career-high 173 yards on 23 carries and 2 total touchdowns in Kansas City’s convincing 31-10 win against the Denver Broncos at home. Walker’s 173 rushing yards were the most for any running back in the Patrick Mahomes era (post-2018). 

On the season, Kenneth Walker leads the NFL with 360 rushing yards and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry. He also has 4 total touchdowns. Walker was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Month. His game-breaking ability gives the Chiefs the dynamic running back that they’ve lacked since the prolific Patrick Mahomes took over as the team’s starting quarterback in 2018. Kansas City has not had a 1,000-yard running back in the Mahomes era. 

Patrick Mahomes has shown no ill effects from last December’s season-ending knee injury as he’s passed for 812 yards with 7 touchdowns to 2 interceptions on 68.4 percent completions through 3 games. He’s also rushed for a touchdown. Having Kenneth Walker III in the backfield should make Mahomes even more dangerous as the season goes along because defenses must respect Walker’s extraordinary ability.

The venerable Travis Kelce is looking spry through the first three games of season. The 36-year-old, future Hall of Famer has team-highs of 14 catches and 231 yards, along with 2 touchdowns so far. He’s averaging a whopping 16.5 yards per catch. Kelce’s career-high for yards per catch is 13.5, which he set in 2020. He recorded 9 catches for 111 and a touchdown in Kansas City’s 33-30 overtime win against Indianapolis in Week 2. It was his first 100-yard game since Week 9 of the 2024 season. 

GAME STORYLINES: LAS VEGAS

Last season, the Las Vegas Raiders finished with a dismal 3-14 record. It was their most losses since going 2-14 in 2006. However, the Raiders futility landed them the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft. Las Vegas selected Indiana quarterback and 2025 Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza with the first pick. Mendoza had just completed a stellar 2025 season at Indiana where he threw for 3,535 yards with 41 touchdowns to 6 interceptions on 72% completions while leading the Hoosiers to a 16-0 record and the 2025-26 BCS National Championship. 

It was expected that Fernando Mendoza would start for the Raiders in the season-opener like recent #1 overall picks such as Cam Ward (2025), Caleb Williams (2024), Bryce Young (2023), Trevor Lawrence (2021) and Joe Burrow (2020) did. But Las Vegas named 38-year-old veteran Kirk Cousins the starter on Sept. 2 in a surprising move.

The Raiders signed Kirk Cousins to a five-year, $172 million contract in April, but only one-year for $20 million was guaranteed. Cousins had worn out his welcome in Minnesota and Atlanta in recent years, and was expected to mentor Mendoza as his NFL career winds down at age 38, not start over him. 

Las Vegas head coach Klint Kubiak’s decision to start 15-year veteran Kirk Cousins has turned out to be a brilliant move as Cousins is off to a fantastic start in his debut season with the Silver and Black. Through 3 games, Cousins has passed for 661 yards with 9 touchdowns to 3 interceptions on 67.4% completions. He’s the only NFL quarterback who has thrown for at least 3 touchdowns in the first 3 games of the year.

The Raiders could find themselves in an interesting dilemma if Kirk Cousins plays well for the entire season and the Raiders finish with a good record. Do the Raiders extend the 38-year-old Cousins? Or do the Raiders hand the reigns over to Fernando Mendoza, who they drafted No. 1 overall?

The young duo of superstar tight end Brock Bowers and second-year running back Ashton Jeanty are expected to be vital pieces of the Las Vegas offense for the foreseeable future. The 23-year-old, third-year Georgia product Bowers was named First-team, All-Pro as a rookie in 2024 when he amassed 112 catches for 1,194 yards with 5 touchdowns. He caught 10 balls for 106 yards in his season debut last week after missing the first two games due to minor knee surgery. The 22-year-old Jeanty’s career 3.6 yards per carry average needs to improve, but he has the potential to be an elite running back due to his speed and shiftiness. 

Las Vegas’s defense appears to be much improved this season, which has also contributed to their surprising 3-0 start. The additions of star linebackers Nakobe Dean (Eagles) and Quay Walker (Packers) as free agents, along with the emergence of rookie fifth-round cornerback Hezekiah Masses (3 interceptions, 4 passes defended, 8 solo tackles this yr) could result in the Raiders boasting one of the top defenses in the NFL.

The tremendous play of 22-year-old rookie Hezekiah Masses is a big surprise because the Raiders selected 3 defensive backfield players before taking Masses with the 175th overall pick (5th round) out of Cal. In Week 2, Masses was named the AFC Defensive Player of the Week after registering 5 tackles and 2 interceptions in Las Vegas’s 26-14 road win against the Los Angeles Chargers. Masses became the first Raiders rookie to win AFC Defensive Player of the Week since teammate Max Crosby in 2019. 

The voided trade and return of superstar defensive end Maxx Crosby also provided a boost for the team and defense. The 29-year-old Crosby established himself as one of the NFL’s top pass rushers over his first 7 NFL seasons — all with the Raiders — totaling 69.5 sacks over those 7 seasons. The Raiders traded Crosby to the Baltimore Ravens for two first-round picks last March. But the Ravens backed out of the trade due to concerns about Crosby’s surgically-repaired knee. So, Crosby returned to the Raiders, which may end up really benefitting both sides as the defense looks to be a lot better in 2026. 

The Raiders have an NFL-high 9 takeaways (5 forced fumbles, 4 interceptions) through 3 games in 2026. They had a total of 16 takeaways in 17 games last year. Las Vegas is giving up 18 points per game through three games this year, which ranks 8th in the NFL. They gave up 25.4 ppg last season. The defense has improved significantly in every aspect this year.

THE PICK: CHIEFS (-4.5)

I’m not necessarily sold on Las Vegas at this point, even with their 3-0 start. Kansas City looks to be in vintage form with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce off to great starts along with the superb play of newly-acquired running back Kenneth Walker III. I don’t think the Raiders are quite ready to compete with the elites of the NFL at this point, Lay the Points…Chiefs 28, Raiders 20