MLB Picks 8/14 –

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Baltimore Orioles (58-63) open a four-game series against the surging and MLB-leading Tampa Bay Rays (74-46) tonight at Tropicana Field. This will be the seventh head-to-head meeting and third series matchup of the season between the American League East adversaries. The season series is tied at three with both teams picking up three game sweeps at home. Baltimore and Tampa Bay will square off for a final time in a three-game set one week from today beginning on Aug. 21. 

Both teams had the day off yesterday.

Baltimore fell at Minnesota 7-5 in their previous game on Wednesday. The Orioles blew a 4-1 third-inning lead. Rookie outfielder Dylan Beavers connected on a three-run homer for the Orioles. It was his third homer of the year. Star slugger Pete Alonzo went 2-for-3 and scored a run in the loss. Baltimore dropped two of three against the Twins. 

Tonight’s contest at Tampa Bay is the seventh of a 10-game road trip for Baltimore. The Orioles are 2-4 so far on the trip; they lost 2 of 3 at Texas and at Minnesota. 

Red-hot Tampa Bay doubled up the Athletics 8-4 on the road in their last game on Wednesday for their ninth straight win. Trade deadline acquisition Liam Hicks belted a three-run homer (16) and finished 3-for-5 for Tampa Bay in the win. Jonny DeLuca also went 3-for-5 and scored a run for the Rays. 

Tampa Bay finished 9-0 on their West Coast road trip against Colorado, Seattle and the Athletics. They became the second team in MLB history to go 9-0 on a West Coast trip, joining the 1977 Boston Red Sox. Tampa’s 9-game road winning streak has matched a franchise-record. 

TONIGHT’S STARTERS

Veteran Chris Bassit(4-4, 5.27 ERA, 37 strikeouts in 10 starts and 2 relief appearances) returns from the 60-day IL (back) to start for Baltimore. Bassit last pitched on June 3 at Boston. Part-time starter Steven Matz (5-4, 5.46, 48 strikeouts across 10 starts and 12 relief appearances) will start a bullpen game for Tampa Bay. Matz will likely pitch for a few innings before turning handing the ball off to multiple relievers. Matz pitched one inning of relief in Tampa Bay’s last game on Wednesday against the Athletics. 

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Baltimore (+128),   Tampa Bay (-148)

Run Line: Baltimore +1.5 (-190),   Tampa Bay -1.5 (+150)

Run Total: over 8 (-120),   under 8.5 (-114)

GAME STORYLINES: BALTIMORE

In 2023, the Baltimore Orioles finished with the MLB’s second-best record at 101-61. The Orioles registered 100+ wins in a season for the first time since 1980. They also won the ultra-competitive American League East division for the first time since 2014. The 2023 season capped off a remarkable turnaround for an Orioles franchise that posted horrific records of 47-115, 54-108 and 52-110 over three straight, non-interrupted seasons from 2018-2021 — there were just 60 games played in the 2020 season due to COVID — before going 83-79 in 2022. 

Baltimore’s turnaround was led by a talented group of homegrown players (Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle) who became an elite unit by the 2023 season. Baltimore finished 91-71 in 2024, and made back-to-back postseason appearances for the first time since 1996 and 1997. The future seemed bright for the Orioles.

Unfortunately, Baltimore has regressed since making back-to-back playoff appearances in 2023 and 2024. The Orioles dropped to 75-87 last year — a 16-game decrease from the previous season — and missed the postseason. The unexpected losses of all-star ace Corbin Burnes and all-star slugger Anthony Santander as free agents after the 2024 campaign were huge factors in the disappointing record. The Orioles were unable to find a suitable replacement for Burnes and Santander.

In the offseason, Baltimore added a pair of veteran sluggers in superstar first baseman Pete Alonzo (.272, 38 HR, 126 RBI in 162 gms w/NYM last yr) and power-hitting outfielder Taylor Ward (.228, 36 HR, 103 RBI in 157 gms w/LAA last yr). Both guys hit 30+ homers last season and were expected to provide a substantial boost for an Orioles offense that went from 4th in runs scored in 2024 (786) to 24th (677) last year. 

Baltimore’s struggles have continued this year due to injuries and a subpar pitching staff. Starting pitcher Zach Eflin and third baseman Jordan Westburg both underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery early in the year. Eflin only made one start in 2026, while Westburg will miss the entire season. Adley Rutschman (ankle) and Ryan Mountcastle (foot/oblique) also missed significant amounts of time. Mountcastle has only participated in 8 games this year and last played on April 11. 

 The injuries and losing record caused Baltimore to become sellers at the trade deadline. The Orioles unloaded star hitters Taylor Ward (SEA) and Adley Rutschman (BOS), along with starting pitcher Dean Kremer (MIN) and reliever Tyler Wells (TB). All four players were expected to be key contributors for a playoff-bound Baltimore team prior to the season. The trade of Rutschman must be particularly tough for Baltimore because they selected him No. 1 overall in the 2019 MLB draft with the expectation that he’d be a franchise player at this point, not traded to a division opponent.   

Despite the underwhelming season as a team, superstar slugger Pete Alonzo is amassing another stellar season at the plate in his debut with Baltimore. The 31-year-old is hitting .259 with 26 homers, 77 RBI and 22 doubles in 121 games. Alonzo has played in all 121 games for Baltimore this year. The Orioles signed the 5-time All-Star to a 5-year, $155 million contract prior to the season. 

GAME STORYLINES: TAMPA BAY

Much like tonight’s opponent, the Tampa Bay Rays have also regressed after registering a phenomenal season in 2023. The Rays went 99-63 in ’23, but fell to 80-82 in 2024 and 77-85 last year. A flawed pitching staff and an underwhelming hitting lineup were factors in Tampa’s decline over the last two seasons. Unlike Baltimore, Tampa Bay has improved significantly this season.

After going 77-85 last year, Tampa Bay enters tonight’s game with the MLB’s best record at 74-46. They are on pace for 100 wins which would be a 23-game increase over last season’s finish. The Rays return home tonight fresh off a 9-0 West Coast road trip. They lead the perennial powerhouse New York Yankees by 6.5 games in the highly-competitive American League East division. If the Rays can hold off New York, they’ll win the AL East for the first time since 2021. 

The catalyst for Tampa Bay’s sublime season is the play of superstar third baseman Junior Caminero. The 23-year-old phenom is hitting .279, with 35 homers and 77 RBI across 120 games in his second full MLB season. Caminero was selected to start in this year’s All-Star game. It was his second straight All-Star game appearance.

Junior Caminero made his MLB debut shortly after turning 20-year-old as a late-season, call-up in September 2023. Caminero’s highly-anticipated rookie year (2024) was limited to just 43 games due to injuries, but he exploded in his first full MLB season crushing 45 homers and collecting 110 RBI last year. His 45 homers was the second-most in franchise history behind Carlos Pena’s 46 in 2007. 

The foursome of designated hitter Yandy Diaz (.302, 17 HR, 69 RBI, 21 doubles in 115 gms), first baseman Jonathan Aranda (.285, 15 HR, 73 RBI in 117 gms), second-year left fielder Chandler Simpson (.307, 25 RBI, 33 steals, 6 triples in 112 gms) and center fielder Cedric Mullins (.207, 13 HR, 37 RBI, 18 steals in 104 gms) are recording excellent seasons in a deep Tampa Bay lineup that leads MLB with a .261 batting average. 

Tampa Bay made a pair of significant additions at the trade deadline to bolster their roster. They acquired two-time All-Star pitcher Freddy Peralta (5-9, 4.99 ERA, 113 K’s in 22 starts w/ NYM) from the New York Mets and catcher Liam Hicks (.282, 14 HR, 62 RBI in 101 gms w/MIA) from the Miami Marlins. The 30-year-old Peralta struggled with the Mets prior to the trade but he led MLB in wins with Milwaukee last year. The 27-year-old Hicks was experiencing a breakout campaign in his second MLB season prior to the trade. He’s under contract until 2030 and should be a terrific performer for Tampa Bay over the next several years.  

THE PICK: RAYS (Moneyline)

Tampa Bay owns the best record in MLB and are coming off a West Coast road trip where they won all 9 games. I expect their dominance to continue tonight against a road-weary Baltimore team. Take the Rays on the Moneyline!