MLB Picks 7/12 – Brewers @ Pirates

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The first half of the MLB season concludes with a battle between National League Central combatants as the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers (59-36) visit the fourth-place Pittsburgh Pirates (49-47) this afternoon at PNC Park on Peacock. The Pirates will look to complete a three-game sweep of the Brewers today after sweeping a double-header yesterday. They played two yesterday due to Friday’s scheduled series opener being rained out. The Pirates won both games by one run, taking the opener 7-6 and winning the second game 3-2. 

Pittsburgh’s star rookie outfielder Esmerlyn Valdez homered three times in yesterday’s double-header. He hit a solo homer in the first inning and a go-ahead grand slam — that gave Pittsburgh a 7-6 lead — in the seventh inning of the opener. Valdez then blasted a two-run homer in the fourth inning of game two. Valdez totaled 8 RBI yesterday. Pittsburgh is now 4-1 against Milwaukee this year.  

If Milwaukee wins today, they’ll win 60 games before the All-Star break for the first time in franchise history. 

The Brewers and Pirates will matchup two more times; they’ll play a four-game series in Milwaukee beginning on August 3, and a three-game series in Pittsburgh beginning on September 15. 

PITCHING MATCHUP

NL Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski was scheduled to start for Milwaukee today, but was scratched last night for Robert Gasser (2-3, 4.15 ERA, 40 strikeouts in 8 starts) who will take the mound for Milwaukee. Reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes (7-8, 3.58 ERA, 123 strikeouts in 19 starts) gets the start for Pittsburgh. Gasser replacing Misiorowski caused a significant shift in the line as Milwaukee went from a (-122) favorite to a (+104) underdog.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Milwaukee (+104),   Pittsburgh (-126)

Run Line: Milwaukee +1.5 (-203),   Pittsburgh -1.5 (+166)

Run Total: over 7.5 (-115),   under 7.5 (-105)

GAME STORYLINES: MILWAUKEE 

For the past nine seasons (2017-2025), the Milwaukee Brewers have been one of the most successful franchises in MLB. They’ve finished with 89 or more wins in six of the last eight non-interrupted seasons over that 9-year span, and captured three consecutive National League Central division crowns entering the 2026 season. Milwaukee has also won at least 92 in each of the last three seasons. It’s their most successful three-year stretch in franchise history.

Despite the enormous regular season success over the past decade, Milwaukee has yet to advance to or win the World Series. The Brewers have never won the World Series in their 56-year history (1969-2025) and have only been to the World Series once in 1982.

Last season appeared to be Milwaukee’s best chance to breakthrough and win the World Series after they registered a franchise-record 97 wins and were the top seed in the National League but they were swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series (NLCS). 

During the offseason, Milwaukee made the somewhat controversial decision to trade its ace Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.70 ERA, 204 strikeouts in 33 starts) to the New York Mets in exchange for a package that featured top prospects Brandon Sproat (SP) and Jett Williams (SS). The then-29-year-old Peralta was set to become a free agent after the 2026 season and the Brewers feared his market value would be too much for them to afford, so they traded him a year before he could walk as a free agent. 

The loss of ace Freddy Peralta has not hindered Milwaukee this season as they enter this afternoon’s contest with a sparkling 59-36 record. The Brewers also hold a 6-game lead over the second-place Chicago Cubs in the National League Central. The Brewers will finish the first half of the season with the second-best record in MLB behind the reigning back-to-back World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. The Brewers and Dodgers could be on a collision course to meet in the NLCS for a second straight season. 

The key to Milwaukee’s continued success this season is the ascension of second-year pitcher Jacob Misiorowski. The 6-foot-7, second-year superstar burst onto the season last year by throwing 11 hitless innings to begin his rookie season. He became the first player in 100 years to achieve this. He ended his rookie year with a 5-3 record, a 4.36 ERA and 87:31 K:BB across 14 starts and 1 relief appearance. Misiorowski was selected to the All-Star game last season as a rookie after making just 5 starts. 

After somewhat plateauing as a rookie last season, Jacob Misiorowski is now arguably the best pitcher in MLB this season in year two. The 24-year-old enters today’s game with a 10-4 record, a 1.62 ERA and 167:27 K:BB across 18 starts. He leads MLB in ERA, strikeouts and WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched).

Jacob Misiorowski was voted in as a starter for the National League in Tuesday’s All-Star game and was scheduled to start today’s game, but was scratched last night. It was reported that Misiorowski suffered arm fatigue in his last start at St. Louis on July 7 and the team wanted to give him some extra rest. He will also miss Tuesday’s All-Star game in Philadelphia. 

GAME STORYLINES: PITTSBURGH

When the Pittsburgh Pirates landed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft and selected highly-touted LSU starting pitcher Paul Skenes, many believed that there days of futility would soon come to an end. Skenes became one of the most ballyhooed prospects in MLB draft history after amassing an extraordinary junior year at LSU where he closed with an 11-2 record, a 1.69 ERA, and 209 strikeouts while leading the team to the 2023 College World Series. 

After an expeditious stint in the minors, Paul Skenes was in the majors by May 2024, which was less than a year after he was drafted in July 2023. Skenes has lived up to and exceeded the lofty expectations bestowed upon him prior to getting drafted. In his first two MLB seasons, Skenes was named the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year and followed that up by capturing the NL Cy Young Award last season in 2025. 

Paul Skenes compiled a 21-13 record with a 1.96 ERA and 386:74 K:BB over 55 starts across his first two seasons with the Pirates. He led MLB in ERA last season. Unfortunately, the pristine production from Skenes could not turn the Pirates into winners as they finished with underwhelming records of 76-86 (2024) and 71-91 (2025) in his first two seasons. Skenes was often a victim of Pittsburgh’s paltry offense over his first two seasons as he rarely got a lot of run support. 

Pittsburgh was actually aggressive in the offseason and made major additions (Ryan O’Hearn, Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna) to the offense in order to improve the team around its young 24-year-old, All-World pitcher Paul Skenes. The offense has improved dramatically this year and you’d expect this would be a tremendous boost for Skenes, but his production is somewhat down this year.

Paul Skenes enters this afternoon’s contest with a 7-8 record, a 3.58 ERA and 123:23 K:BB over 19 starts. Skenes’ 3.58 ERA is well above the 1.96 RERA he averaged over his first two MLB seasons. Prior to his last start, Skenes went 9 straight starts without picking up a victory — the Pirates also lost all 9 of those games. He did win his last against the Braves on July 7 as he struck out 4 and gave up 2 earned runs over 6 innings in a 12-4 victory.

Paul Skenes registered one of his best outings of the year in his only start against Milwaukee this season on April 24 where he struck out seven over 7 scoreless innings in Pittsburgh’s 6-0 win.

Pittsburgh’s vastly improved offense is due to the tremendous production of veteran sluggers Brandon Lowe (.246, 21 HR, 64 RBI, 21 doubles in 89 gms) and Ryan O’Hearn (.283, 16 HR, 61 RBI in 81 gms), 22-year-old rookie Esmerlyn Valdez (.311, 10 HR, 26 RBI in 27 gms), and holdover Bryan Reynolds (.282, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 22 doubles in 96 gms). Lowe has surpassed the 20-homer mark for a fourth straight season. Valdez was called up from Triple-A Indianapolis on May 22 and has 10 homers and 27 RBI in 27 games. 

Pittsburgh’s home run total this year is a glaring illustration of how improved they are in 2026 and how poor they’ve been previously. The Pirates’ 120 homers (96 gms) ranks second in MLB this year. Last season, Pittsburgh totaled 117 homers over 162 games, which was last (30th) in MLB. The Pirates ranked 25th in homers (160) in 2024. The Pirates are now in position to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2018 when they went 82-79.

THE PICK: PIRATES (Moneyline)

With NL Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski being removed as the starter at basically the last minute — around 7pm ET last night — and being replaced by Robert Gasser, Milwaukee’s chance to win this game decreased in a dramatic fashion. I expect reigning Cy Young winner Paul Skenes will dominate the Brewers for a second time in 2026. Take the Pirates on the Moneyline!