NFC Championship Picks 1/25: Rams @ Seattle

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

NFC West rivals square off in the NFC Championship Game as the fifth-seeded Los Angeles Rams (12-5, 2nd in the NFC West) visit the top-seeded, NFC West Champion Seattle Seahawks (14-3) on Sunday night at Lumen Field. The game kicks off at 6:30 p.m. (EST) on Fox. The winner will advance to Super Bowl LX (60) on Feb. 6. 

The Rams and Seahawks split the regular season matchups with each team picking up narrow wins at home. Los Angeles held on for a 21-19 win at home on Nov. 16 in Week 11, while Seattle rallied for a 38-37 overtime win at home on Dec. 18 in Week 16. The last five contests between these teams have been decided by 6 points or less, with the Rams winning three times. 

This will be the third postseason meeting between the franchises. The Rams are 2-0 against the Seahawks, winning both games in Seattle. The Rams picked up a 27-20 victory in the Wild Card/opening round during the 2004 season when the franchise was located in St. Louis. They won 30-20 in the Wild Card round during the 2020 postseason.

The NFC Championship Game will feature division rivals for a second straight season. Last year, the Philadelphia Eagles pounded the Washington Commanders 55-23 at home en route to winning the Super Bowl.

Seattle is a 2-point favorite and the total is 45.5.

HOW BOTH TEAMS ADVANCED TO THE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: LOS ANGELES RAMS

Back-to-back upset road losses at Seattle and Atlanta late in the regular season dropped Los Angeles from being the top seed in the NFC all the way down to the fifth seed. Plummeting to the No. 5 seed meant the Rams would likely face the daunting task of needing to win 3 road games to advance to the Super Bowl. 

The Rams’ playoff journey began with a trip to face the fourth-seeded Carolina Panthers (8-9) in the Wild Card round on Jan. 10. Despite winning four fewer games than Los Angeles, Carolina got the higher seed and the opportunity to host the game due to winning the NFC South division. The Panthers upset the Rams 31-28 at home in Week 13 on Nov. 30 but still entered the game as 10-point underdogs.

For a second straight game, the Rams had their hands full with the pesky Carolina Panthers but they were victorious this time around, rallying for a 34-31 win. It appeared as if the Rams were going to rout the Panthers after jumping out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. But Carolina did not fold, and was able to tie the game at 17 early in the third quarter. They took their first lead of the game (24-20) in the opening moments of the fourth quarter.

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford suffered a sprained index finger on his throwing hand late in the second quarter which hampered his ability to grip the ball for the rest of the game. Stafford’s injury may have played a role in Carolina’s comeback as Stafford was mostly ineffective after the Rams took a 14-0 lead.

Despite Matthew Stafford’s injury and a raucous crowd buoyed by Carolina coming back to take the lead, the Rams scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns to escape with the victory. The game-winning score occurred with just 38 seconds left in regulation when Stafford threw a 19-yard touchdown pass to tight end Colby Parkinson which provided the final 34-31 margin.

The newly-minted. 2025 first-team All-Pro Matthew Stafford completed 24-42 passes for 304 yards with three touchdowns and one interception in the victory against Carolina. Superstar wideout Puka Nuka compiled team-highs of 10 catches and 110 yards along with a touchdown for the Rams. Tight end Colby Parkinson and running back Kyren Williams also caught touchdown passes from Stafford. 

The Rams advanced to face the second-seeded and NFC North champion Chicago Bears (11-6) in the divisional round of the playoffs one week ago on Jan. 18. And for a second week in a row, the Rams were on the road facing a team who won fewer games than them. Los Angeles again escaped with a 3-point victory, defeating Chicago 20-17 in overtime. 

The Rams overcame frigid temperatures in Chicago and a miraculous, game-tying touchdown pass by Bears quarterback Caleb Williams with 18 seconds left to pull out the win. Williams’ touchdown pass to tight end Cole Kmet came on fourth-and-4 from the 14-yard line when he backpedaled to avoid the pass rush and heaved what looked to be a desperation pass to the end zone that found a wide open Kmet. The second-year, former No. 1 overall pick (2024) Williams led the Bears to 7 fourth-quarter comebacks this season. 

Caleb Williams’ run of late-game heroics leading to Chicago victories came to an end against the Rams as safety Cam Kurl picked off Williams in the overtime. Kurl’s interception led to a Rams 10-play, 54-yard drive that set up a 42-yard game-winning kick from Harrison Mevis. 

In a game where both defenses dominated, neither team had a receiver or running back eclipse the 100-yard mark. Matthew Stafford completed 20 of 42 passes for 258 yards with no touchdown or interceptions in the win. It was his first game of the season without a touchdown pass. Rams running back Kyren Williams had 21 carries for 87 yards with 2 rushing touchdowns. He added 4 catches for 30 yards. The Rams defense picked off Caleb Williams three times. 

HOW BOTH TEAMS ADVANCED TO THE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: SEATTLE

After finishing 14-3 in the regular season, the Seattle Seahawks secured the No. 1 seed in the NFC and earned a bye in the opening Wild Card round of the playoffs. The Seahawks hosted their NFC West rival and sixth-seeded San Francisco 49ers — who upset the defending Super Bowl champion and third-seeded Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card Round — 8 days ago on Jan. 17. 

Seattle and San Francisco would meet for the third time this season and second time in 3 weeks. They split the regular season matchups with San Francisco picking up a last-second 17-13 win at Seattle in the season-opener on Sept. 7, and Seattle returning the favor with a 13-3 victory at San Francisco in the regular season finale in Week 18 on Jan. 3. 

In last week’s divisional round game, the Seahawks picked up where they left off in San Francisco in Week 18 by humiliating the 49ers 41-6. Seattle’s speedy wideout Rashid Shaheed took the opening kickoff back for a 95-yard touchdown and San Francisco was never in the game after that. 

Seattle’s 35-point win over San Francisco last week tied the franchise-record for largest playoff victory, equaling their 43-8 win in Super Bowl XLVIII (48) over the Denver Broncos during 2013 season. It was San Francisco’s worst playoff loss since a 49-3 drubbing at the New York Giants during the divisional round of the 1986 playoffs. 

The Seahawks defense stymied the 49ers for a second time in three weeks, totaling 2 sacks, forcing 2 tumbles and picking up an interception. Running back Kenneth Walker III rushed for a season-best 119 yards on 19 carries and scored 3 touchdowns in the win. Walker’s three rushing touchdowns tied Shawn Alexander (2003-04 at GB) for the most in a playoff game in franchise history. 

The only blemish in Seattle’s resounding victory against San Francisco was running back Zach Charbonnet suffering a season-ending knee injury in the second quarter. He had 5 carries for 20 yards before exiting the game. Charbonnet (730 rushing yards, team-leading 12 rushing touchdowns in 16 regular season gms) and Kenneth Walker III (1,027 rushing yards, 5 rushing touchdowns in 17 regular season gms) formed one of the best running back tandems in the NFL this season. 

GAME STORYLINES FOR TONIGHT

Both starting quarterbacks can really boost their legacies with a win tonight. Both starting quarterbacks also have similar stories of redeeming/reviving their careers after being drafted to poor franchises. After being selected first overall in the 2009 NFL draft by the Detroit Lions, Los Angeles starting quarterback Matt Stafford spent 12 seasons in Detroit being a ‘lovable loser’ who put up fantastic numbers but never came close to winning.

Since being traded to Los Angeles prior to the 2021 season, Matthew Stafford has now become a winning quarterback, while continuing to put up excellent numbers. In his 12 seasons with Detroit, Stafford made 3 playoff appearances and never won a playoff game. In his 5 seasons with the Rams, Stafford guided the Rams to a Super Bowl victory in year one, and made the playoffs in 4 of his 5 seasons. Stafford is the frontrunner to win the 2025 MVP award after throwing for 4,707 yards with a career-high 46 touchdowns to 8 interceptions in 17 games.

Like Matthew Stafford, Sam Darnold also entered the NFL with high expectations after being selected third overall in the 2018 NFL draft by the New York Jets. Darnold’s career in New York fizzled out after 3 seasons. Carolina and then San Francisco also moved on from Darnold. The Minnesota Vikings signed Darnold to a modest one-year, $10 million dollar deal prior to the 2024 season to be the backup to prized rookie JJ McCarthy — the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft

JJ McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason which gave the starting QB job to Sam Darnold. Darnold seized the opportunity and revived his career with Minnesota by posting career-highs of 4,319 passing yards and 35 touchdowns, while leading the Vikings to a 14-3 record. The Vikings made the controversial decision not re-sign Darnold after the 2024 season. 

Seattle signed Sam Darnold to a massive three-year, $100.5 million contract in March 2025. And Darnold continued his great play (4.048 yards, 25 touchdowns to 14 interceptions in 17 regular season gms) and winning ways in Seattle, leading the team to a franchise-record 14 wins. Darnold became the first player in NFL history to win 14 games in back-to-back seasons with 2 different teams.

THE PICK: SEAHAWKS (-2)

Seattle enters the NFC Championship Game on an 8-game winning streak which has been ignited by the stellar play of their defense, which has allowed 10 points or fewer In 5 of those wins. I expect Seattle’s tremendous play will continue against the Rams in front of an amped-up Seattle crowd. Lay the Points…Seahawks 27, Rams 19