by Jack Chambers for Wannamakeabet.com
Green Bay visits Soldier Field on January 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM UTC for a Wild Card tilt that pits two NFC North foes with very different closing narratives. This preview breaks down form, injuries, matchup edges and where the smart money should lean under Wannamakeabet’s points-based system.
Team Analysis
Green Bay
- Season overview and recent form
The Green Bay Packers finished the regular season with a record that left them fighting for seeding and momentum; their offense under Jordan Love has shown efficiency (top-tier adjusted EPA metrics) but the unit cooled late, with Green Bay dropping multiple games down the stretch and surrendering a heavy rushing day to Baltimore that exposed run-fit issues.
- Notes on personnel and trends
Green Bay’s passing attack ranks middle of the league, Jordan Love finished with strong efficiency numbers and very low interception totals, while the running game and receiver availability have been inconsistent — a red flag when road playoff football tilts toward physicality.
Chicago
- Season overview and recent form
The Chicago Bears closed as one of the stronger regular-season teams (NFC North winners) with an offense built around explosiveness and a top-5 rushing attack that averages roughly 144–149 YPG, and rookie/young QB Caleb Williams putting up elite yardage totals and big-play moments. Chicago finished 11-6 and arrives at Soldier Field with home-ice advantages and favorable matchup metrics.
- Notes on personnel and trends
Despite a late skid in a couple of games, Chicago’s identity this season is heavy on the run and turnover creation; their defense ranks well in takeaways and the offense controls clock and tempo when the ground game clicks.
Key Matchup Factors
- Head-to-head history
This rivalry is the NFL’s longest and the Packers–Bears series has recent splits — they split the regular-season meetings with each team winning at home this season, which makes the playoff meeting a true home-field test. Historical dominance favors Green Bay overall, but recent results and the 2025 split suggest a coin-flip series this year.
- Important player matchups
The duel to watch is Jordan Love’s timing and deep accuracy versus Caleb Williams’ playmaking and rush-threat dimension; Love’s low turnover rate is a huge asset, but Williams’ ability to extend plays and the Bears’ run scheme (and backs) force defenses to tackle in space. Expect targets to Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson to be key if Green Bay wants to limit Williams’ influence.
- Key Injuries and news
Green Bay downgraded WR Dontayvion Wicks to out (concussion) and listed several questionables late in the week (including OL and secondary concerns), which thins depth on an already banged-up offense. Chicago has dealt with short-term injuries to pass-catchers but entered the playoffs with core pieces intact; however, drop-offs at WR and early-game slow starts have been cited as concerns.
- Home/away performance
The Bears were notably stronger at Soldier Field and control the trenches when their rushing attack is rolling, while the Packers have been uneven on the road and looked vulnerable to heavy rush totals in recent losses — a situational advantage for Chicago.
Betting Analysis
- Spread analysis
Books opened this game razor-close with lines bouncing around the Packers -1 to -1.5 window on some books while other books show the Bears as a hair favorite depending on juice; there’s clear market disagreement, signaling line movement options and late-money leverage for disciplined bettors.
- Total (over/under) analysis
Totals clustered in the mid-40s (44.5–46.5 on early books). Given the Bears’ run-heavy approach, Chicago’s ability to chew clock and slow pace argues UNDER value if the Packers can’t sustain long drives, but the Bears’ explosive plays and both QBs’ ability to produce chunk plays keep OVER plausible. Weather at Soldier Field (cold, snow/wind risk) slightly tilts toward lower scoring and the UNDER.
- Best value opportunities
– Look for Bears +1.5 or home moneyline as the market misprices the impact of Chicago’s run-game vs. Green Bay’s struggles against the rush. – Play lower totals in the live market if wind/snow shows up (late-game propagation).
- Prediction
This shapes up as a close, physical game where home-field and rushing dominance decide the outcome. I’ll side with Chicago to cover and likely win a tight, low-to-mid scoring affair — official lean: Bears +1.5 / Bears moneyline depending on the best available juice. Final score projection: Bears 24, Packers 20.
Key Injury Statuses
- Green Bay
– Dontayvion Wicks: downgraded to OUT (concussion protocol). – Multiple questionables (OT Zach Tom, QB depth Malik Willis listed with shoulder/hamstring concerns in practice notes).
- Chicago
– Rome Odunze / DJ Moore: managed late-week availability and snaps were limited at times; core starters expected but monitor practice reports for full-out statuses.
Final pick and closing
Final pick: Chicago Bears +1.5 (lean ML if -120 or better) — this matches the matchup edges (run game vs. Packers run defense issues), home-field, and weather tilt toward a lower-scoring, grind-it-out playoff win for the Bears. Bet size per Wannamakeabet’s points-based system: allocate medium confidence (3/5 points) here and shop books for the best ML or reduced juice +1.5.
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