Peach Bowl picks 1/9: Oregon Ducks @ Indiana Hoosiers

Oregon Ducks

@

Indiana Hoosiers

by Liam Bailor for Wannamakeabet.com

Oregon and Indiana meet Friday, January 9, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC in the Chick‑fil‑A Peach Bowl — a CFP semifinal that looks like a style clash: a Heisman‑led, ball‑control Hoosier team vs. an explosive Oregon offense trying to avenge its lone loss.

Team Analysis

Oregon

• Season overview and recent form: The Ducks are 13‑1 after a dominant CFP quarterfinal win and come in riding strong playoff momentum, but they carry one loss — to Indiana in October — that serves as a blueprint for what went wrong.
• Offense/defense notes: Oregon’s offense is explosive on yards‑per‑play metrics but has struggled against physical, disciplined defenses; the Ducks’ defense has also shown top‑tier play in recent weeks.
• Recent roster pressure: Oregon’s backfield depth is thin after multiple portal exits and an availability report that listed 12 players (including RB Jordon Davison) as out for the Peach Bowl.

Indiana

• Season overview and recent form: Indiana is unbeaten at 14‑0 and arrives as the No. 1 seed after a dominant Rose Bowl/quarterfinal performance that cemented its status as a title favorite.
• Offense/defense notes: The Hoosiers lean on Fernando Mendoza (Heisman winner) and a physical rushing game while boasting one of the country’s stingiest defenses in points allowed and red‑zone stops.
• Depth/injury picture: Indiana’s CFP availability report listed several players out, but the core offense and Mendoza are trending healthy and in rhythm.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head‑to‑head history: Indiana won the regular‑season meeting at Autzen, 30‑20, a game in which Indiana’s defense took Oregon out of its rhythm and pressured Oregon’s QB repeatedly.
• Important player matchups: Fernando Mendoza vs. Oregon’s secondary — Mendoza’s efficiency and red‑zone accuracy will test Oregon’s tackling and coverage discipline; Dante Moore must avoid turnovers and pressure to keep Oregon’s tempo advantage.
• Key injuries and news: Oregon’s RB situation is precarious (Jordon Davison out with a collarbone; Jay Harris entered the portal but will be available); Indiana listed several non‑impact outs but remains largely intact.
• Home/away/neutral: The Peach Bowl is played on neutral turf at Mercedes‑Benz Stadium, removing home‑field edge and making situational matchup and depth even more critical.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: Books have Indiana -3.5 (DraftKings/market consensus), with the public leaning Indiana; line movement has been mild and sportsbooks project Indiana to control clock and field position.
• Total (over/under) analysis: The market sits around 48.5 (DraftKings look‑ahead opened around 48.5 and many outlets show totals in the high 40s), and the matchup history plus two elite defenses point toward a lower‑possession game that favors the UNDER.
• Best value opportunities:

– Lay the points with Indiana -3.5 if you trust game‑control and red‑zone defense; Indiana has shown the blueprint in Eugene and again in the quarterfinals. – Play the UNDER in the 47–49 range: both teams can shorten the game and Indiana’s defensive profile excels at forcing punts and three‑and‑outs.

• Prediction: I expect a physical, possession‑heavy tilt where Indiana controls the line of scrimmage, forces Oregon into longer drives and minimizes possessions. Final: Indiana 24, Oregon 17 — take Indiana -3.5 and the UNDER 48.5 as the play.

Key Injury Statuses

• Oregon: RB Jordon Davison — OUT (collarbone); multiple running backs entered transfer portal; Jay Harris entered portal but is expected to be available for the game.
• Indiana: Availability report listed several OL/DL/DB depth players out but core starters including Fernando Mendoza are listed as available.

Final pick and closing: Back Indiana -3.5 and the UNDER 48.5 — edge comes from Indiana’s ability to shorten the game, win the trenches, and force field goals in the red zone. Use Wannamakeabet’s points‑based system to size these plays (we’d give this combo a medium‑confidence, 6/10 points allocation given public money and matchup clarity).