Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – How Healthy is Baker?

Arizona Cardinals

@

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

By Jack Chambers for Wannamakeabet.com

The Arizona Cardinals head to Raymond James Stadium to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on November 30, 2025 at 1:00 PM UTC with Tampa Bay installed as a narrow favorite (spread TB -3.0, total 44.5).

Team Analysis

Arizona

• Season overview: The Cardinals sit at 3-8 and have lost three straight, struggling to find consistent offense since the mid-season injury to their franchise signal-caller.
• Quarterback/roster notes: Kyler Murray was placed on injured reserve with a foot injury and will miss multiple weeks, leaving veteran Jacoby Brissett as the starter.
• Secondary injuries/skill-position impacts: Rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. underwent appendectomy and is sidelined, further thinning Arizona’s WR room.
• Recent form: Under Brissett the offense has shown flashes (higher scoring outputs in his starts) but Arizona’s overall record and defensive splits make them a heavy underdog on the road.

Tampa Bay

• Season overview: Tampa Bay is 6-5, tied atop the NFC South, but entering Week 13 on a recent skid and mounting pressure to hold positioning in the NFC playoff picture.
• Quarterback/roster notes: Baker Mayfield suffered a low-grade AC joint sprain in his non-throwing (left) shoulder after the Week 12 loss to the Rams; his availability is uncertain and Teddy Bridgewater is the expected fallback starter if Mayfield can’t go.
• Injuries and availability: Tampa Bay’s injury list has been noisy all season — Chris Godwin was dealing with a fibula issue, Haason Reddick has missed time, and the offensive line has seen repeated shuffling in recent weeks.
• Recent form: The Bucs have dropped three straight after a 6-2 start, including a 34–7 road loss to the Rams where Mayfield exited injured.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: The all-time series between Arizona and Tampa Bay is split even (about 11–11), so there’s no historical knot forcing a particular result.
• Important player matchups:

– Jacoby Brissett’s accuracy and ball security vs. a Tampa Bay defense that has been susceptible to big plays lately. – If Mayfield is limited or out, Teddy Bridgewater steps in; Bridgewater’s conservative, short-to-intermediate game favors Tampa’s run-first balance but caps upside.

• Key injuries and news: Arizona’s loss of Murray and Harrison Jr. materially weakens both QBs’ upside and big-play potential; Tampa Bay’s uncertainty centers on Mayfield and availability of key targets/edge rushers.
• Home/away splits: Tampa Bay plays much better at home (Raymond James is a significant edge) while Arizona has struggled on the road this season.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: The market sits around Tampa Bay -3.0 with books like FanDuel and early market pricing near-2.5 to -3; the number implies the market trusts home-field plus Tampa’s overall roster over Arizona’s injuries.
• Total (over/under) analysis: The posted total is 44.5; both teams have been involved in higher-scoring games this season and Arizona’s games have frequently gone Over — but an injured Mayfield (or a Bridgewater start) tends to suppress big-play upside and can push toward the Under.
• Best value opportunities:

– If Mayfield is ruled OUT or limited early in the week, the market should shave points off TB — that move creates value on Arizona getting +3 or more. Monitor official practice reports and the Buccaneers’ injury notebook closely. – The Under 44.5 gains traction if Bridgewater starts and Tampa leans on the run game; the Over is attractive only if Tampa’s receiving corps is healthy and both QBs are at full strength.

• Prediction: Given home-field, a healthier supporting cast on Tampa’s roster, and Arizona’s quarterback uncertainty, the edge goes to Tampa Bay — but this is a classic “watch-the-week” game. If Mayfield practices and is cleared, TB -3 is where you take them; if he’s out, Arizona +3 becomes the cleaner, lower-variance play.
• Final pick: Lean Buccaneers -3.0 (straight up) if Baker Mayfield is active; if Mayfield is OUT or limited, pivot to Arizona +3 or tease scenarios that protect against a Tampa win but capture Arizona’s points.

Wannamakeabet’s points-based betting system favors clarity: if your model gives Tampa a 3+ point edge with Mayfield active, place the straight spread play; if the model collapses under quarterback uncertainty, the system locks to points or the underdog while preserving bankroll.