Black Friday: Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles – Bears On a Heater

Chicago Bears

@

Philadelphia Eagles

Chicago and Philadelphia square off Friday, November 28, 2025 at 3:00 PM UTC in a matchup that feels like playoff seeding by Thanksgiving — Philly is getting the respect, Chicago is playing the spoiler. The DraftKings look has Philadelphia as a 7-point favorite with a 44.5 total, and both teams bring storyline-driven edges bettors should parse before locking action .

Team Analysis

Chicago

• Season overview and recent form: The Chicago Bears enter Week 13 riding a four-game winning streak and sit at 8-3 in the NFC, a surprise surge under coach Ben Johnson that’s been powered by timely defense and clutch kicking. Chicago’s 31-28 win over the Steelers continued a run of one-score victories and showcased rookie Caleb Williams in late-game moments.
• Key context and personnel: Williams has flashed big-play ability despite completion-rate questions; he threw for 239 yards and 3 TDs vs. Pittsburgh and remains the engine of an offense that leans on D.J. Moore and creative play-calling. Kicker Cairo Santos has been clutch in multiple games this month.
• Health and depth: Chicago’s defense has been banged up — reports noted the team missing key linebackers in recent weeks and playing backups at several spots, which could matter against Philly’s front. The Bears’ official injury feed has tracked several weekly updates this month.

Philadelphia

• Season overview and recent form: The Philadelphia Eagles are also 8-3 and still regarded as NFC contenders despite a shocking 24-21 collapse in Dallas where a 21-0 lead evaporated in the second half. That loss puts urgency on a Philly squad that otherwise fields a top-tier roster on both sides of the ball.
• Key context and personnel: Jalen Hurts remains the fulcrum of the Eagles’ offense and brings dual-threat upside that forces defenses to respect both run and pass; the receiving corps (A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith when available) gives Philly matchup advantages. The Eagles’ official site and local coverage confirm line and depth chart moves that matter for protection and run-game balance.
• Health and depth: Philadelphia has been managing O-line and safety availability (notably Lane Johnson and Reed Blankenship in recent reports), but the staff has frequently adjusted and still activated key pieces for big games. Expect pregame inactives to drive late-line movement.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: These teams don’t play annually; the Eagles own the recent edge in the series and historically have matched up well vs. Chicago’s offensive profile. Philly’s run/pass balance tends to expose linebacking rooms that are thin, which is crucial given Chicago’s injury issues.
• Important player matchups:

– Jalen Hurts vs. Chicago’s pressure scheme — Hurts’ mobility and Philly’s RPOs test a Bears unit that has been forced to rotate LBs and safeties . – Caleb Williams vs. Eagles secondary — Williams’ deep-ball upside (and intermittent accuracy concerns) makes the matchup swingy; if he’s on, Bears can cover the spread.

• Key injuries and news: Philly’s inactives and game-status changes (Lane Johnson, Reed Blankenship) will be game-defining; Chicago’s linebacker depth worries (reports of multiple starters missing snaps) weaken run defense and third-down resistance. Monitor final injury reports for late-line shifts.
• Home/away performance: Philly plays at home and the market is factoring that in — Las Vegas/consensus books opened Philly around a touchdown and the public has largely followed into Eagles money. Travel and short week feel minimal; this is a home-cooking spot for the Eagles.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: DraftKings and consensus books have Philadelphia -7 (DraftKings shows -7 at standard juice), which looks logical given Philly’s talent and home edge, but Chicago’s recent string of one-score wins and league-high experience in tight games means the number isn’t a slam dunk. If Bears get +7 at better than -110 on the Eagles’ juice, there’s contrarian appeal.
• Total (over/under) analysis: The market sits at 44.5 — under is attractive if you trust Philly’s occasional offensive stagnation (they went quiet in the second half vs. Dallas) and Chicago’s offense that often plays a clock-management, low-volume style in tight games. Weather at Lincoln Financial Field historically can suppress scoring late November; check forecast pregame.
• Best value opportunities:

– Bears +7 if you can find +7.5 or better across books — Chicago’s knack for close wins and Philly’s recent collapse argue the spread is juiced for the home favorite. Look for +7 (-105 or better) or +7.5 to pull the trigger. – Under 44.5 as a second play — short week, emotional rebound potential for Philly that could slow pace, plus Bears’ game-management offense.

• Prediction: This feels like a Philly edge game but not a blowout. Expect a physical first half, low-to-moderate scoring, and a game decided by a touchdown or less. Chicago’s injuries on defense and Philly’s superior roster tilt to the Eagles ATS, but Chicago +7 with even modest better juice is the value play.
• Final pick: I’ll take Chicago +7 (main) if available at +7.5 or better; otherwise Philadelphia -7 (lean) with the closing juice at common books. Secondary: Under 44.5 as a smaller unit. These plays reflect Wannamakeabet’s points-based system that weights team health, matchup edges, and market efficiency — lean to the Bears for value, Eagles outright if you need a favorite.