By Jack Chambers for Wannamakeabet.com
NFL Betting Analytics: Why Teams Skip the Late Field Goal to Go Up Six Points
If you’ve watched enough NFL football, you’ve probably yelled at the TV during this exact situation:
A team is up by three late in the game, easily within field-goal range.
A field goal would put them up six points.
But instead of kicking, they go for it on 4th down.
To old-school fans and bettors, that choice feels insane — take the points and force the opponent to need a touchdown!
But modern analytics show that the numbers say something very different.
🧠 A Six-Point Lead Isn’t Nearly as Safe as It Sounds
It feels like going up six points gives a cushion. But here’s the critical detail:
Whether you’re up 3, 4, 5 or 6, the opponent still needs one touchdown to take the lead.
And touchdowns are far more common than game-tying field-goal drives in the final minutes.
In win-probability modeling, a 6-point lead doesn’t meaningfully improve your chance of winning compared to a 3- or 4-point lead. It looks better on the scoreboard, but it doesn’t meaningfully protect you.
⏱️ What Does Protect You? Possession and Clock
This is the heart of the analytics revolution:
Ending the game on offense is more valuable than scoring 3 points.
If you convert the 4th down:
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You bleed the clock.
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The opponent might burn timeouts.
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You have a chance to go up two scores (10 or 14 points).
That combination — especially with less than ~4 minutes left — skyrockets win probability.
📊 The Math: Win Probability Comparison
Late 4Q, opponent has ≤ 2 timeouts, inside opponent’s 30:
| Decision | Win Probability |
|---|---|
| Kick FG → go up 6 | ≈ 72-76 % |
| Go for it → fail | ≈ 68-71 % |
| Go for it → convert | ≈ 87-93 % |
When you factor in the average conversion rate of a 4th-and-short (≈ 58–68 %), the weighted total win probability favours going for it.
That’s why the analytics charts given to NFL coaches recommend being aggressive in these situations.
🎯 Case Study: Jaguars vs. Cardinals
In the recent game, the Jaguars vs. Cardinals, the decision-making highlighted exactly this scenario.
The Jaguars had a late possession, and instead of kicking a field goal to go up by six, they went for it on 4th-and-1 from the opponent’s territory. The pass was incomplete, which handed the ball over, but that aggressiveness shows how the modern mindset is shifting.
| Situation | Decision | Why it mattered |
|---|---|---|
| Late in 4th quarter | Go for it on 4th-and-1 rather than kick FG | They aimed to end the game by possession and clock rather than giving the opponent one shot at a tie or win. CBS Sports+1 |
Even though the pass didn’t convert, the Jaguars still won the game in overtime — demonstrating that the decision didn’t backfire this time, and they maintained control of the situation.
This real-time example shows how coaches are applying the analytics in actual game scenarios: choosing the option that maximises win probability, not just the option that looks safe.
📌 “But you risk turning the ball over!”
True — but even that is not as damaging as fans assume.
If you fail on 4th down:
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The opponent takes over deep in their territory.
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They still need a touchdown to take the lead.
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And they have more field to travel than if you kicked off following a field goal.
So the risk isn’t as big as it feels emotionally.
💡 The Emotional Part — and Why Fans Hate It
Before analytics took over football, the logic was simple:
“Take the points.”
And emotionally? That makes total sense for fans and bettors.
But football has always had a hidden truth:
A 6-point lead feels good… but it doesn’t actually protect you.
Analytics flipped the psychology:
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Kicking and losing now gets a coach criticised for being too conservative.
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Going for it and losing is seen as “following the math”.
The stigma around aggression is disappearing.
🧾 Bottom Line for Bettors
If you bet NFL games — especially spreads and live wagering — this concept matters.
Late-game 4th-down aggression isn’t “reckless.”
It’s:
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probability-optimised
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clock-driven
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built to remove possessions from the opponent
The goal is not to score points — the goal is to deny the opponent a final opportunity.
And more often than not, it wins more games.
🎯 Final Takeaway
Coaches don’t skip the field goal because they don’t want points.
They skip it because possession + clock kills the game more reliably than a 6-point lead.
Expect to see this trend get more aggressive every season — because the numbers clearly support it.