NFL picks 11/23: Philadelphia @ Dallas – Tight One Comin in Big D

Philadelphia

@

Dallas

by Jack Chambrers for Wannamakeabet.com

The Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys meet on November 23, 2025 (4:25 PM UTC) in a high-stakes NFC East tilt that shapes the division picture and offers several wagering angles — Dallas sits at+3.0 on the spread and the market has the total at 47.5.

Team Analysis

Philadelphia

• Season overview and recent form: The Eagles are 8-2 entering this matchup, riding a defensive surge that produced back-to-back low-scoring outings (holding Green Bay and Detroit to single digits).
• Personnel notes: Cam Jurgens cleared concussion protocol and is expected to play; Lane Johnson is out with a foot injury, with Fred Johnson penciled to start at right tackle.
• Form implications: Philadelphia’s run defense and pass-rush additions have pressured opponents into low totals, which supports under/slow-pace narratives against volatile offenses.

Dallas

• Season overview and recent form: The Cowboys are 4-5-1 but showed a resurgent offensive night in a 33-16 win over the Raiders (Dak Prescott: multiple TD passes), indicating the unit can spike suddenly.
• Personnel notes: Prescott left the Raiders game with a minor hip issue but is expected to play; Dallas has shuffled the secondary (recent roster moves include a cornerback waiver).
• Form implications: Dallas’ offense can be boom-or-bust — explosive plays can push totals up, but red-zone inconsistency and turnover risk cap ceiling.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: Recent H2H trends show the series often produces one-sided results and low combined scores — four of the last five meetings went under 50 points.
• Important player matchups:

– Jalen Hurts’ run/pass balance vs Dallas’ front seven — if Dallas can contain QB-designed runs, they force off-platform throws. – Dak Prescott and weapons (Pickens/Lamb) vs the Eagles secondary — Dallas needs chunk plays to beat the Eagles at home.

• Key injuries and news: Cam Jurgens cleared and will play; Lane Johnson out for Eagles; Dak Prescott limited in practice with a hip issue but expected to start; Cowboys made secondary roster moves.
• Home/away performance: Dallas at AT&T has been a safer spot for Prescott historically; Eagles’ road play has been strong this year but losing a key tackle matters in pass protection.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: Market lists Dallas +3.0 — that price implies a one-score game and gives value if you expect Prescott to keep it close at home or if Eagles’ offensive line attrition slows scoring. Look for early-market movement based on late inactives;
• Total (over/under) analysis: The 47.5 number sits right in the middle — historical H2H lean and Philadelphia’s recent defensive stinginess suggest the Under has edge, but Dallas’ capacity for sudden offensive explosions keeps the floor from being low. Prefer the Under if you believe the Eagles’ trenches and Jurgens’ availability slow Dallas’ pace.
• Best value opportunities:

– Look for Eagles -3.5 to -4.5 markets if public money pushes Cowboys to +3; Philly’s red-zone efficiency and defense make the small chalk tolerable. – If Dak is limited on pre-game reports, consider Eagles moneyline or buying half-point on the spread. – Player props: target low total/yardage props for wideouts if you take the Under; target anytime scorer lines for Prescott targets if you expect chunk plays.

• Prediction: Expect a close, low-to-medium scoring affair. Philly’s defense and interior availability (Jurgens playing) should limit Dallas’ ceiling, while Dallas’ home boost and Prescott’s form keep this within a field-goal game. That template favors taking Dallas +3.0 as a value play if you prefer the dog getting points; if you want to back the better roster and defense, take Eagles -3 or the moneyline if the line slips to -3.5.
• Final pick: My lean — Bet Dallas +3.0 (small stake) for plus-money insurance; secondary play Under 47.5 if early inactives confirm Lane Johnson out and Dak is limited. This aligns with Wannamakeabet’s points-based system: conservative units on the spread (+3 value) and a smaller contrarian unit on the Under for hedge.