NHL picks 11/22: Tampa Bay @ Washington

Tampa Bay

@

Washington

The Tampa Bay Lightning and the Washington Capitals are set to face off on November 22, 2025, at 7:00 PM UTC at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. Both teams enter the matchup with identical records of 11-7-2, making this an intriguing contest between two evenly matched squads.

Team Analysis

Tampa Bay

• Season Overview and Recent Form: The Lightning have demonstrated resilience, securing victories in nine of their last 12 games. Their most recent performance was a commanding 5-1 win over the New Jersey Devils, highlighted by Jake Guentzel’s eighth career regular-season hat trick. Nikita Kucherov also contributed significantly, surpassing Martin St. Louis on the franchise’s all-time goal list with his 366th career goal. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy made 31 saves, further solidifying the team’s defensive strength.

Washington

• Season Overview and Recent Form: The Capitals have been on an upward trajectory, winning three consecutive games. Their latest triumph was an 8-2 victory over the Montreal Canadiens, where Alex Ovechkin delivered a standout performance with a hat trick and four points. Dylan Strome also had a notable game, recording three assists. This offensive surge indicates the Capitals’ growing offensive rhythm.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-Head History: In their most recent encounters, the Lightning have had the upper hand, winning four of the last five matchups. Notably, they secured a 3-1 victory over the Capitals on March 1, 2025.

• Important Player Matchups:

– Jake Guentzel vs. Alex Ovechkin: Guentzel has been a significant addition to the Lightning, tallying 21 points in 20 games. Ovechkin, on the other hand, leads the Capitals with 20 points, including 10 goals and 10 assists. Their performances will be pivotal in determining the game’s outcome.

• Key Injuries and News:

– Tampa Bay: The Lightning are contending with several injuries, including Victor Hedman (undisclosed), Ryan McDonagh (undisclosed), and Pontus Holmberg (undisclosed), all of whom are out. Erik Cernak (lower body) is listed as day-to-day. – Washington: The Capitals have a relatively clean bill of health, with no significant injuries reported.

• Home/Away Performance: The Capitals have been strong at home, winning their last two games at Capital One Arena. The Lightning have also been effective on the road, recently securing a 3-1 victory against the Florida Panthers.

Betting Analysis

• Spread Analysis: The Capitals are favored by 1.5 goals, with odds of +220 to cover the spread. The Lightning are underdogs at -245 to cover the +1.5 spread.

• Total (Over/Under) Analysis: The over/under is set at 6.5 goals. Both teams have shown offensive prowess recently, with the Capitals scoring 15 goals in their last two games and the Lightning averaging 3.1 goals per game. However, both teams also possess strong defensive units, making the over a more favorable bet.

• Best Value Opportunities:

– Moneyline: The Capitals are favored at -120, while the Lightning are underdogs at +100. Given the Lightning’s recent form and the Capitals’ injury concerns, the Lightning present good value as underdogs. – Player Prop Bets: Jake Guentzel is listed at +175 to score a goal, and Alex Ovechkin at +135. Both players have been instrumental in their teams’ offenses and are likely to find the back of the net.

• Prediction: Considering the Lightning’s recent offensive surge and the Capitals’ defensive vulnerabilities, especially with key injuries, the game is expected to be closely contested. The Lightning’s depth and goaltending may give them the edge in this matchup.

• Final Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning (+1.5) to cover the spread. The game is anticipated to be high-scoring, making the over 6.5 goals a reasonable bet. For player prop bets, consider wagering on Jake Guentzel and Alex Ovechkin to score. Utilizing Wannamakeabet’s points-based betting system can further enhance your betting strategy for this matchup.