NCAAB picks 11/20: Western Michigan @ Ohio State – Buckeye Blowout??

Western Michigan

@

Ohio State

Western Michigan travels to Value City Arena to face Ohio State on November 20, 2025 at 8:00 PM UTC — a classic David vs. Goliath MAC-on-Big Ten non-conference tilt with Ohio State -27.5 and the market sitting at 156.5 points.

Team Analysis

Western Michigan

• Season overview and recent form: The Broncos enter Columbus off a 2-3 start, coming off an 83-78 loss at South Dakota and a season-opening 76-71 win over Coastal Carolina. Western Michigan has shown spurts on offense — including a season-best shooting night vs. South Dakota — but remains erratic and turnover-prone on the road.
• Roster and front-line context: Head coach Dwayne Stephens rebuilt the roster over the offseason with multiple transfers and freshmen; key contributors so far are Jayden Brewer (team scoring leader, 20-point outing vs. USD) and Max Burton (double-double contributor and primary rebounder). Depth is thin on the road and the program is still meshing after heavy roster turnover.

Ohio State

• Season overview and recent form: Ohio State opened 4-0, including a dominant 94-68 win where Bruce Thornton scored a career-high 38 and a 75-53 win powered by Brandon Noel’s double-double. The Buckeyes have outscored opponents in blowout fashion and are clicking offensively early under coach Jake Diebler.
• Key pieces: Senior guard Bruce Thornton (scoring engine), wing John Mobley Jr. (3PT threat), and big Christoph Tilly (interior scoring/rebounding) form a nucleus that can punish mid-major frontcourts. Ohio State’s rotations also have quality depth pieces ready to match physicality.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: This is a rarely played series — Thursday marks just the fifth meeting, and Ohio State has won every prior matchup. The Buckeyes’ historical and recent dominance vs. MAC opponents is notable.
• Important player matchups: Jayden Brewer and Max Burton must control the glass and attack early to keep WMU within striking distance; they’ll have to contend with Brandon Noel and Christoph Tilly on the boards. On the perimeter, Bruce Thornton vs. WMU’s guards will likely determine tempo. If Thornton gets hot, the Buckeyes can turn this into a rout.
• Key injuries and news: Western Michigan is dealing with off-court disruption — transfer Justice Williams is being withheld from competition as part of an NCAA gambling investigation, removing a depth/shot-making option. Ohio State has monitored a nagging hip issue to Devin Royal earlier in the week, but the Buckeyes have functioned well with or without him and have the depth to absorb limited minutes if needed.
• Home/away splits: Ohio State’s home court and depth favor a fast, physical game in Columbus; WMU is 0-2 on the road in early-season tests and has struggled to sustain late-game execution away from Kalamazoo. Expect the Buckeyes to exploit second-chance opportunities and full-court runs.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: The market opening and consensus lines sit in the high-20s in Ohio State’s favor (books showing anywhere from -26.5 to -27.5). That gap reflects public and model sentiment about Ohio State’s offensive firepower versus WMU’s defensive and depth issues. If you believe Ohio State’s early-season scoring is sustainable and WMU’s road struggles continue, the Buckeyes covering a 27–28 point spread is plausible.
• Total (over/under) analysis: The listed total of 156.5 is elevated but reasonable given Ohio State’s offensive outputs (94, 75, 118 in early outings reported) and WMU’s ability to put up points in spurts. That said, WMU’s turnovers and Ohio State’s improving defensive rotations make a controlled Buckeyes pace and an UNDER plausible — especially if Ohio State forces turnovers and converts in transition while limiting WMU’s late-game scoring.
• Best value opportunities:

– If you lean conservative: grab Ohio State -27.5 if you find -28.0 or worse elsewhere — market value exists when a major public favorite is priced into the high twenties but you expect them to avoid a slow false-start. – If you prefer upside: consider Ohio State -30 (or larger alternate spread) only if you can get plus-money — Buckeye blowouts in the non-conference are realistic given matchup mismatches. Conversely, if you find WMU +30 or better, the value on the upset-cover side is attractive as a small-stake hedge. – For totals: small lean to the UNDER 156.5 — expect OSU tempo control, WMU turnovers, and a Buckeyes game-plan that limits garbage-time scoring.

• Prediction: Matchup, roster construction, recent form, and venue all favor Ohio State. I project a comfortable Buckeye win with Ohio State covering the number in most simulation scenarios — final projected score range: Ohio State 94, Western Michigan 61–67. That supports a play on Ohio State -27.5 and a conservative lean to the UNDER 156.5.

Final pick: Ohio State -27.5 (primary), lean UNDER 156.5. Play size: medium on the spread, small on the total — use alternate spreads/multiples only if odds offer significant juice or plus-money. Wannamakeabet’s points-based system gives this lineup a confidence rating that favors the Buckeyes heavily; use that alongside bankroll management to size your bet.