Sacramento visits Memphis in a matchup of Western Conference underperformers looking to spark their seasons. With Memphis opening as a 2.5‑point favorite and a total at 233.5, this game offers value for both sides depending on trends and injuries.
Team Analysis
Sacramento
The Kings are off to a dreadful 3‑12 start, marking their worst opening since the 1990‑91 season . Their recent form has been abysmal: a seven‑game skid culminating in a 113‑99 loss to Oklahoma City . Coach Doug Christie delivered a blistering post‑game rebuke, slamming their “shameful compete level” after a 133‑100 loss to Atlanta .
On the injury front, Domantas Sabonis remains sidelined for his second consecutive contest , while forward Keegan Murray is finally back and expected to make his season debut . The return of Murray gives their offense a desperately needed lift.
Memphis
Memphis enters at 4‑11, looking to avoid slipping further . Their season has also been marred by injuries: Ja Morant is out again with a calf strain , and multiple rotation players—Brandon Clarke, Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr., Javon Small—are also out (https://www.si.com/nba/grizzlies/onsi/news/how-to-watch-memphis-grizzlies-sacramento-kings-lineups-injury-report-betting-lines-more-01kagvhdxj10 and https://sports.iheart.com/content/2025-11-20-grizzlies-vs-kings-injury-report-nov-20/). Jaren Jackson Jr. is listed as questionable . That amounts to a severely depleted lineup and raises real concerns about offensive and defensive cohesion.
Key Matchup Factors
– Head‑to‑head history The Kings have dominated recent matchups. They took three of four meetings last season, including a pair of high‑scoring wins at home (138‑133 and 132‑122) (https://www.landofbasketball.com/headtoheadgl/grizzliesvskingsgamelogseason.htm and https://www.americasline.com/stats/matchup/basketball/nba/2451639).
– Important player matchups Without Sabonis, the Kings will rely heavily on DeMar DeRozan, De’Aaron Fox, and the returning Keegan Murray to carry scoring load. Memphis, missing Ja Morant, now leans even more on Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. (if available).
– Key injuries and news Sacramento: Sabonis out, Murray returns . Memphis: Ja Morant out, multiple key players out or questionable .
– Home/away performance Memphis holds a 34‑21 all‑time home edge vs. Sacramento . But Sacramento’s success in recent head‑to‑head suggests they perform well against the Grizzlies regardless of venue.
Betting Analysis
– Spread analysis Memphis is a 2.5‑point favorite. Given the Kings’ recent head‑to‑head success and Memphis’s thin roster, Sacramento with the points seems appealing. The Kings also have the emotional boost of Murray’s return and are motivated after blowouts.
– Total (Over/Under) Set at 233.5. With Sabonis and Morant both out, interior scoring and playmaking will be impacted. Memphis’s offense should take a step back, and Sacramento is still reeling. Leaning under seems prudent.
– Best value opportunities Taking Sacramento +2.5 stands out. The Kings can hang close, especially early, and if it turns into a defensive slog, the spread holds. The under on 233.5 also makes sense—fewer star options, more missing pieces.
– Prediction Expect a low‑scoring, defense‑tilted thriller. Kings keep it tight behind DeRozan, Fox, and Murray; Memphis scrapes by but doesn’t cover.
Final pick: Memphis wins by 3. Under 233.5.
Closing thoughts: Wannamakeabet’s points‑based system values injuries, recent trends, and matchup history—this game throws off both sides. Kings likely keep it within a field goal, making the underdog on the road (+2.5) the best value. With both teams missing key pieces, this leans toward a grind-out win for Memphis and a solid nod to the under.
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