College Football picks 11/19: Miami (OH) @ Buffalo

The Mid-American Conference (MAC) is set to showcase a pivotal matchup on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, as the Miami (OH) RedHawks travel to face the Buffalo Bulls at UB Stadium. Both teams enter the game with identical 5-5 records, making this contest crucial for their postseason aspirations.

Team Analysis

Miami (OH)

• Season Overview and Recent Form: The RedHawks have demonstrated resilience throughout the season, maintaining a balanced offensive and defensive approach. However, they’ve faced challenges in recent weeks, including a 24-3 loss to Toledo on November 12, where they managed only 222 total yards and committed three turnovers.

• Offensive Highlights: Quarterback Henry Hesson has stepped into a leadership role, accumulating 489 passing yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions this season. Running back Jordan Brunson leads the ground attack with 488 rushing yards, while wide receiver Kam Perry has been a consistent target, recording 726 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

• Defensive Highlights: Defensively, linebacker Corban Hondru has been a standout, leading the team with 83 tackles and three interceptions. Defensive end Adam Trick has contributed significantly to the pass rush with 6.5 sacks.

Buffalo

• Season Overview and Recent Form: The Bulls have exhibited a potent offense but have struggled with consistency, particularly in their 38-19 loss to Central Michigan on November 12. In that game, quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson threw for 208 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while wide receiver Nik McMillan had seven receptions for 122 yards and two touchdowns.

• Offensive Highlights: Roberson has accumulated 1,947 passing yards with 13 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season. Running back Al-Jay Henderson leads the rushing attack with 702 yards and five touchdowns. McMillan has been a reliable receiving option, totaling 712 yards and three touchdowns.

• Defensive Highlights: The Bulls’ defense has been solid, ranking 38th nationally in total yards allowed per game (327.7). Linebacker Red Murdock leads the team with 105 tackles, while defensive end Adam Trick has contributed six sacks.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-Head History: The home team has dominated this series in recent years, with each side winning four of the last eight matchups. The RedHawks have not won in Buffalo since November 12, 2016.

• Important Player Matchups:

– Henry Hesson vs. Ta’Quan Roberson: Both quarterbacks have shown flashes of brilliance but have also been prone to turnovers. Their performance will be pivotal in determining the game’s outcome. – Jordan Brunson vs. Al-Jay Henderson: The battle between these two running backs will be crucial, as both have been central to their respective offenses. – Kam Perry vs. Nik McMillan: These wide receivers have been primary targets for their quarterbacks and will play significant roles in the passing game.

• Key Injuries and News: As of now, there are no significant injury reports affecting key players for either team.

• Home/Away Performance: The Bulls have a strong home-field advantage, having won three of the last four meetings in Buffalo.

Betting Analysis

• Spread Analysis: The current spread favors Buffalo by 2.5 points. Considering the Bulls’ home advantage and the RedHawks’ recent struggles, this line appears reasonable.

• Total (Over/Under) Analysis: The over/under is set at 38.5 points. Both teams have shown offensive inconsistencies, and with Buffalo’s strong defense, a low-scoring game is anticipated.

• Best Value Opportunities:

– Betting on Buffalo to cover the spread seems prudent, given their home-field advantage and Miami’s recent offensive challenges. – The under on total points is also a favorable bet, considering both teams’ scoring difficulties.

• Prediction: Buffalo’s home advantage and Miami’s recent offensive struggles suggest a close game.  But the Bulls are likely to secure a victory, covering the 2.5-point spread.

• Final Pick: Buffalo to cover the -2.5 spread.

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