The upcoming matchup between the Michigan State Spartans and the Kentucky Wildcats on November 18, 2025, at Madison Square Garden promises to be a thrilling encounter in the State Farm Champions Classic. Both teams have shown strong performances early in the season, setting the stage for an exciting game.
Team Analysis
Michigan State
Under the leadership of head coach Tom Izzo, the Spartans have started the season with a 3-0 record. Their most recent victory was a 79-60 win against San Jose State on November 13, 2025. In that game, Carson Cooper led the team with 17 points, while Jaxon Kohler contributed a double-double with 17 points and 18 rebounds. Jeremy Fears Jr. also had a notable performance, scoring 15 points and dishing out nine assists. Despite the win, Coach Izzo expressed dissatisfaction with the team’s performance, indicating areas for improvement as they prepare for tougher opponents.
Kentucky
The Wildcats, coached by Mark Pope, have a 2-1 record heading into this matchup. Their most recent game was a dominant 99-53 victory over Eastern Illinois on November 14, 2025. Mouhamed Dioubate led Kentucky with 20 points in that game. The Wildcats’ roster features standout players such as Denzel Aberdeen, Otega Oweh, and Collin Chandler, who have been instrumental in their early-season success.
Key Matchup Factors
Head-to-Head History
The all-time series between Michigan State and Kentucky is closely contested, with Kentucky leading 14-12. The most recent meeting occurred on November 15, 2022, when Michigan State secured an 86-77 victory in overtime.
Important Player Matchups
- Jeremy Fears Jr. vs. Collin Chandler: Fears Jr. has been a key playmaker for the Spartans, averaging 9.3 assists per game. Chandler, on the other hand, has been a consistent scorer for the Wildcats, contributing 11.3 points per game. Their duel at the point guard position will be crucial in dictating the game’s tempo.
- Coen Carr vs. Otega Oweh: Carr has been a versatile forward for Michigan State, contributing both offensively and defensively. Oweh has been a standout for Kentucky, averaging 13.0 points and 3.8 rebounds per game. Their matchup will be pivotal in controlling the game’s flow.
Injuries and News
As of now, there are no significant injury reports affecting key players for either team. Both teams are expected to be at full strength for this highly anticipated matchup.
Home/Away Performance
The game will be held at Madison Square Garden in New York City, providing a neutral site for both teams. This setting eliminates any home-court advantage, making it a true test of each team’s capabilities.
Betting Analysis
Spread Analysis
Kentucky enters the game as a 5.5-point favorite. Historically, the Wildcats have been strong at home, with a 15-3 record when playing at home last season. However, Michigan State has demonstrated resilience on the road, with a 7-2 record in away games last season. Given the neutral-site nature of this game, the spread reflects the Wildcats’ slight edge.
Total (Over/Under) Analysis
The over/under for the game is set at 154.5 points. Both teams have shown the ability to score efficiently, with Kentucky averaging 92.0 points per game and Michigan State averaging 74.5 points per game. Defensively, both teams have been effective, with Kentucky allowing 55.0 points per game and Michigan State allowing 67.5 points per game. This suggests a moderately paced game with a total score around the set line.
Best Value Opportunities
Considering the close nature of the matchup and the neutral-site setting, betting on the spread with Kentucky at -5.5 offers value. Additionally, the over/under of 154.5 points appears balanced, making it a reasonable option for bettors.
Prediction
In a tightly contested game, Kentucky’s depth and home-court advantage give them a slight edge over Michigan State. The Wildcats are projected to win by a narrow margin, with a final score of 79-75. Bettors may find value in taking Kentucky to cover the -5.5 spread.
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