NFL Picks 10/5 – Patriots @ Bills

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Week Five of the NFL season presents a battle of long-time division rivals as the New England Patriots (2-2) visit the undefeated Buffalo Bills (4-0) at Highmark Stadium on NBC’s Sunday Night Football. The teams have split the regular season matchups in each of the last two seasons, with the home team coming out on top each time. All four games were decided by seven points or less. 

Sunday night’s game marks Stefon Diggs’ first game at Buffalo since the Bills traded him to the Houston Texans in April 2024. Diggs played for Buffalo from 2020-2023 and had the most productive four-year stretch of his NFL career with the Bills. Despite his immense talent and production, it was widely reported that Diggs could be a temperamental teammate during his tenure in Buffalo, which may have led to the Bills decision to trade him. 

Stefon Diggs faced Buffalo last season as a member of the Houston Texans. Diggs and the Texans picked up a 23-20 win over the visiting Bills. Diggs finished with six catches for a team-high 82 yards in the win.

Buffalo is an 8.5-point favorite, and the total is 49.5.

New England obliterated the Carolina Panthers 42-13 at home in their previous game one week ago. New England outscored Carolina 21-0 in the second quarter allowing them to pull away and take a 28-6 lead into halftime. The Patriots were 4-for-4 in the red zone and did not commit a turnover in the blowout victory.

Second-year quarterback Drake Maye completed 14 of 17 passes for 203 yards and two touchdowns in the win. It was Maye’s third straight game with at least two touchdown passes. He also rushed for a touchdown. Stephon Diggs finished with a season-high 101 receiving yards. Running backs TreyVeyon Henderson and Antonio Gibson each rushed for a touchdown. New England is looking to win back-to-back games since the 2022 season. 

Buffalo defeated the pesky and winless New Orleans Saints 31-19 at home in Week 4. Buffalo entered the contest as a 15.5-point favorite but found themselves only up 21-19 early in the fourth quarter. The Bills closed out the game with a touchdown and field goal over the final seven minutes of regulation to win by 12. 

Reigning MVP Josh Allen completed 16 of 22 passes for 209 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Allen also rushed for 45 yards on 7 carries and a rushing touchdown. Bills running back James Cook rushed for 117 yards on 22 carries and a touchdown. Wideout Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid each caught touchdown passes from Allen.

GAME STORYLINES: NEW ENGLAND

From 2001-2019, the dynamic duo of quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick turned the New England Patriots into one of the great dynasties in North American sports history winning six Super Bowls, advancing to nine AFC Championship Games and making 17 playoff appearances over 19 seasons. 

On March 17, 2020, the Patriots allowed then – 42-year-old Tom Brady to depart as a free agent after spending 20 seasons (2000-2019) with the team. The ensuing five seasons has resulted in a downward spiral for the Patriots as they’ve only registered one winning season — 10-7 in 2021 — since Brady’s departure. Bill Belichick parted ways with New England following a 4-13 finish in 2023.

New England’s failure to land a franchise quarterback following Tom Brady’s departure has played a huge role in their five years of futility. Cam Newton (2020), Mac Jones (2021-2023), Bailey Zappe (2022-2023), and Jacoby Brissett (2024) all had unsuccessful stints as the Patriots starting quarterback. 

After its dismal 4-13 record in 2023 — the Patriots worst mark since going 2-14 in 1992, New England landed the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft and selected North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye. Maye was not initially named the opening week starter as a rookie but took over for an ineffective Jacoby Brissett in Week 6 of the 2024 season. Maye has been entrenched as the Patriots starter ever since and provides hope for the future with his much-improved play so far this season in year two.

Drake Maye notched a solid rookie season passing for 2,276 yards with 15 touchdowns to 10 interceptions while completing 66.6 percent of his passes in 13 games. He’s been even better through four games in 2025, passing for 988 yards with 7 touchdowns to 2 interceptions while completing 74 percent of his passes. It appears as if Maye is making a sophomore leap this season and could be developing into the franchise quarterback New England has been looking for since Tom Brady left in 2019. 

Newly acquired wideout Stefon Diggs (213 receiving yards in 4 gms this year), tight end Hunter Henry (204 receiving yards, team-high 3 touchdowns in 4 gms) along with running backs Rhamondre Stevenson (125 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 141 receiving yards in 4 gms) and rookie TreVeyon Henderson (97 rushing yards, 87 receiving yards, 1 touchdown in 4 gms) are the key contributors on New England’s offense. 

New England signed the former All-Pro Stefon Diggs to a three-year, $69 million contract last March. The 31-year-old Diggs tore his ACL with the Houston Texans last October and got off to a slow start this year, but rebounded with a season-best 6-catch, 101 yard performance in last week’s 42-13 win against Carolina. Diggs will be making first appearance in Buffalo since the Bills traded him following the 2023 season. The Patriots have high hopes for the Ohio State rookie running TreVeyon Henderson. He was named the opening day starter at running back.

  

GAME STORYLINES: BUFFALO

Since being drafted seventh overall by the Buffalo Bills in the 2018 NFL draft, Josh Allen has become one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and led the franchise to heights it has not seen since the mid 1990’s. Buffalo has made 6 straight playoff appearances and won 5 straight AFC East division titles in Allen’s 7 seasons as the Bills starting quarterback. 

Josh Allen was named the NFL’s Most Valuable Player in 2024 after amassing 3,731 passing yards with 28 touchdowns to 6 interceptions while completing 63.6 percent of his passes in 17 games. Allen also rushed for 531 yards and 12 touchdowns. He became the first Bills player to win the award since Thurman Thomas in 1991. Allen has maintained his stellar form this season passing for 964 yards with 7 touchdowns to 1 interception while completing 70.2 percent of his passes through 4 games. Allen also has 159 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns.

Running back James Cook has emerged as an elite performer alongside Josh Allen in the Bills explosive offense. The fourth-year Georgia product totaled 18 touchdowns (16 rushing and 2 receiving) last year and eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark (1,009) for a second straight year. He was named a Pro-Bowler for the second straight season last year.

Buffalo gave James Cook a four-year, $48 million contract extension shortly before the season in August. Cook is off to an excellent start in 2025 as his 401 rushing yards ranks 2nd among running backs and his 5 rushing touchdowns leads the NFL. He’s rushed for over 100 yards in three straight games and totaled 100 yards from scrimmage in all four games. 

Wideouts Keon Coleman (203 receiving yards, 1 touchdown in 4 gms this year) and Khalil Shakir (190 yards, 2 touchdowns in 4 gms), along with tight end Dalton Kincaid (179 receiving yards, team-high 3 receiving touchdowns in 4 gms) are also weapons in the Bills offense. The 22-year-old Coleman was Buffalo’s second round pick (No. 23 overall – Florida State) in 2024 and may be in line for a breakout sophomore campaign after an uneven rookie year.

The Bills traditionally strong defense has taken a bit of a hit this year do to injuries to star players  in defensive tackle Ed Oliver, linebacker Matt Milano and defensive back Tre’Davious White. Oliver and Milano are just returning from injuries, while White has yet to play this season after sustaining a knee injury in August. 

Buffalo signed star pass rusher Joey Bosa to a one-year, $12.6 million deal in March. The 30-year-old Ohio State product was a five-time Pro Bowl selection and the 2016 Defensive Rookie of the Year with the Chargers. He was plagued by injuries during his 9 seasons with the Chargers but was a force when healthy. Bosa totaled 72 sacks in 9 years with the Chargers. He’s gotten off to a terrific start with Buffalo compiling 8 tackles, 4 forced fumbles and 2 sacks in 4 games. 

THE PICK: BILLS (-8.5)

While the Patriots look much improved this season due to the terrific play of second-year quarterback Drake Maye, I think playing on the road against a juggernaut like Buffalo on national television will be a bit too much for the inexperienced Patriots. I expect Josh Allen will lead his team to a fairly easy win here, Lay the Points…Bills 38, Patriots 23