NFL Picks 9/28 – Eagles @ Bucs

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Week Four presents a battle of unbeaten teams as the defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-0) on Sunday afternoon at Raymond James Stadium. The teams met almost one year ago to the day with Tampa Bay blasting the short-handed Eagles 33-16 at home on Sept. 29, 2024. The Buccaneers have dominated the Eagles of late winning six of the last seven matchups dating back to 2015.

Philadelphia is a 3-point favorite and the total is 44.5. 

The Eagles are coming off an improbable 33-26 win at home against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3. After trailing 26-7 early in the third quarter, Philadelphia scored the final 26 points of the game to pull out the victory. It was the largest home comeback for the Eagles since overcoming a 20-point deficit to defeat the Dallas Cowboys 24-23 in 1988. 

It appeared as if the Rams were poised to win the game when kicker Joshua Karty lined up for a 44-yard field goal with 3 seconds remaining but Jordan Davis blocked the field goal attempt, picked up the ball and returned it 61 yards for a touchdown. Davis’ scintillating defensive touchdown on the final play of the game not only secured the victory but it also allowed for an Eagles backdoor cover. The Eagles were a 4.5-point favorite. 

Jordan Davis registered five tackles and a sack, in addition to his game-saving heroics. Jalen Hurts completed 21 of 32 passes for 226 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Hurts recorded his highest passing total and first touchdown pass of the season against Los Angeles. A.J. Brown notched season highs of 6 catches and 109 yards, along with a touchdown for the Eagles.

Tampa Bay also picked up a dramatic last-second victory at home in their previous game knocking off the pesky New York Jets 29-27. Bucs kicker Chase McLaughlin nailed a 36-yard field goal as time expired to win it. The Jets trailed 26-13 with 6:13 remaining in the fourth quarter and rallied to take a 27-26 lead with 1:49 left when Will McDonald IV returned a blocked field goal 50 yards for a touchdown. Baker Mayfield led a 7-play, 48-yard drive in 1:48 that put Tampa Bay in position to win.

Baker Mayfield completed 19 of 29 passes for 233 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. Mayfield has produced the game-winning points in all three of Tampa Bay’s come-from-behind victories this season. Tampa Bay is the first team in the Super Bowl era (post-1966) to win in the final minute of fourth quarter in each of its first three games. 

GAME STORYLINES: PHILADELPHIA

After advancing to the Super Bowl during the 2022 season and narrowly losing to the Kansas City Chiefs 38-35, The Philadelphia Eagles endured an epic collapse in 2023 where they started 10-1 but dropped 6 of their last 7 games to finish 11-6. The 2023 season ended with an embarrassing 32-9 loss at Tampa Bay in the opening Wild Card round of the playoffs.  

Philadelphia signed running back Saquon Barkley to a three-year, $37.7 million contract prior to the 2024 season and they’ve been running roughshod over the NFL ever since. Saquon Barkley rushed for an astonishing 2,005 yards in his debut season with the Eagles, while the team finished 14-3 last season en route to winning the Super Bowl in dominant fashion, pounding the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22. The Eagles are 19-1 over their last 20 games including playoffs. 

Despite losing key defensive players (Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, and Isaiah Rodgers) to free agency, the Philadelphia Eagles entered the 2025 season as a +650 favorite to win the Super Bowl. Questions about whether Jalen Hurts was elite also became a debate topic amongst the Hot Take Talkers during the offseason.

Philadelphia has opened the season 3-0 hanging on to defeat Dallas (24-20) and Kansas City (20-17) in Weeks 1 and 2 before last week’s dramatic 33-26 win over Los Angeles. The fact that the Eagles are undefeated with the offense being somewhat pedestrian could be a bad sign for the rest of the NFL because they have the firepower to be a dynamic offense.

Through 3 games in 2025, Jalen Hurts has passed for 479 yards with three touchdowns to no interceptions while completing 71.4 percent of his passes. He’s rushed for 132 yards on 32 carries and recorded 4 rushing touchdowns. While Hurts’ passing numbers aren’t necessarily prolific, his lack of turnovers and rushing acumen makes him one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.

It looks as if the Eagles defense will be elite again this year thanks in large part to the improvement of defensive tackle Jordan Davis. Philadelphia selected the 6-foot-6 Georgia product with the 13th pick in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft amid lots of questions surrounding his large frame and lack of conditioning. Those issues hampered Davis for the majority of his first 3 NFL seasons as he rarely played a full allotment of snaps due to not being in shape. 

During the offseason, Jordan Davis dropped 26 pounds, transformed his body and is now a full-time starter. He’s developing into one of the better players on the Eagles defense so far. Davis has 16 tackles and a sack through 3 games. He had just 3.5 total sacks in his first 3 seasons with the Eagles. An in-shape and agile Davis could end up being one of the better defensive players in the NFL this season.

GAME STORYLINES: TAMPA BAY

After 7-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady ended his stellar 23-year NFL with Tampa Buccaneers in 2022, Tampa Bay went in search for his successor. They took a chance on Baker Mayfield as Brady’s successor. Mayfield’s NFL career had been a huge disappointment prior to joining Bucs after being selected No. 1 overall by the Cleveland Browns in the 2018 NFL draft. He had an up-and-down four years with Cleveland before being essentially cut by 2 teams (Carolina and the Los Angeles Rams) during the 2022 season.

Tampa Bay signed Baker Mayfield to a modest 1-year, $4 million deal in March 2023. But Mayfield ended up amassing a career year in his first season with the Bucs. He registered career highs in passing yards (4,044), touchdowns (28) and completion percentage (64.3) while leading Tampa Bay to a 9-8 record and a third straight NFC South division crown. 

The Buccaneers rewarded Baker Mayfield for his magnificent play in 2023 by giving him a 3-year, $100 million extension in March 2024 — exactly one year after taking a flier on him. Mayfield did not disappoint after getting paid as he was even better in his second season with the Bucs passing for 4,500 yards with 41 touchdowns to 16 interceptions while completing 71.4 percent of his passes. He led the Bucs to a 10-7 record and a fourth straight NFC South division crown. 

Baker Mayfield is maintaining his excellent level of play in year three with Tampa Bay. The 30-year-old, two-time Pro Bowler has thrown for 615 yards with 6 touchdowns and no interceptions while guiding the Buccaneers to a 3-0 start. Mayfield has led his team to last-minute, come-from-behind wins in all 3 games. 

Tampa Bay is getting tremendous production from rookie wideout Emeka Egbuka early in the year. The Ohio State product has 14 catches for 181 yards and 3 touchdowns through 3 games. The Bucs selected Egbuka 19th overall in the 2025 NFL draft. He holds the Ohio State record for career receptions with 205, and has the second-most career receiving yards with 2,868. 

With superstar wideout Mike Evans (14 catches for 140 yards, 1 touchdown in 2025) expected to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury and Chris Godwin nearing a return from a dislocated ankle that could have him rusty for a while, Emeka Egbuka will likely be thrust into the No. 1 wide receiver role for an extended period of time. Second-year running back Bucky Irving (174 rushing yards, 91 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown in 2025) is off to a good start this year. 

Superstar safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (11 tackles, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble in 2025), disruptive defensive tackle Vita Vea (7 tackles, 1 fumble recovery), linebacker Lavonte David (22 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and newly acquired defensive end Haason Redick (8 tackles, 1 sack) are the standouts on a terrific defense. The veteran Redick will look to rebound with Tampa Bay after a disastrous 2024 season with the Jets that was marred by his contentious relationship with Jets management. He had 27 sacks over 2 seasons with the Eagles in 2022 and 2023. 

THE PICK: EAGLES (-3)

The Eagles have won 19 of their last 20 games, and their passing game got on track last week after a so-so first two weeks. Tampa Bay will be missing its star wideout Mike Evans in this one which will likely limit the passing game. I expect the Eagles 20-game run of excellence to continue in Tampa…Eagles 31, Buccaneers 23