NFL Picks 9/21 – Broncos @ Chargers

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Week Three of the NFL season presents a matchup of long-time AFC West division rivals as the Denver Broncos (1-1) visit the Los Angeles Chargers (2-0) on Sunday afternoon at SoFi Stadium. Los Angeles is looking to start 3-0 for the first time since 2002. The Chargers won both meetings against the Broncos last season, winning each game by seven points. 

Los Angeles is a 2-point favorite and the total is 45.5.

Denver is coming off a stunning 29-28 loss at Indianapolis last Sunday. The Broncos appeared to have won the game after Colts kicker Spencer Shrader missed a 60-yard field goal as time expired. But a 15-yard penalty (leverage) on Dondrea Tillman gave Shrader another chance to win the game. Shrader nailed the 45-yard field goal giving Indianapolis the dramatic victory. 

Broncos second-year quarterback Bo Nix completed 22 of 30 passes for 206 yards with three touchdown and one interception in the loss to the Colts. J.K. Dobbins rushed for 76 yards on 14 carries and added a touchdown. Second-year wideout Troy Franklin contributed career-highs of 8 catches and 89 yards with a touchdown for Denver. Marvin Mims Jr. and Adam Trautman each caught touchdown passes from Nix. 

The Chargers picked up a 20-9 road win against the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football in their last game. Justin Herbert finished 19 of 27 for 242 yards and two touchdowns in the win. He also rushed for a team-high 31 yards on nine carries. Quentin Johnson caught three passes for 71 yards and a touchdown. Keenan Allen hauled in 5 catches for 61 yards and a touchdown for the Chargers. 

Los Angeles received a tremendous performance from their defense in the Week 2 win as they intercepted Raiders quarterback Geno Smith three times and sacked him three times. Chargers linebacker Daiyan Henley had 10 tackles, one sack and an interception in the win. 

GAME STORYLINES: DENVER

After winning Super Bowl 50 behind the heroics of Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and a dominant defense in 2015, the Denver Broncos missed the playoffs for the next 7 seasons (2016-2022). In February 2023, Denver traded for New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton. Payton compiled a sparkling 152-89 record in 16 seasons (2006-2021) as the Saints head coach and won Super Bowl XLIV (46) in the 2009 season.

The acquisition of Sean Payton has paid immediate dividends for Denver as he’s taken them from a middling franchise to what looks to be a perennial playoff contender. After finishing 8-9 in his first year (2023) as Broncos head coach, Payton followed up with a 10-7 record and a playoff berth last year. The 10 wins was the Broncos highest total since going 12-4 in 2015 and winning the Super Bowl. It was also the Broncos first playoff appearance since 2015. 

In addition to Sean Payton’s coaching brilliance, drafting quarterback Bo Nix 12th overall in the 2024 NFL draft also played a significant role in Denver’s turnaround. Nix amassed a huge senior season at Oregon finishing with 4,508 passing yards, 45 touchdowns to 3 interceptions while completing 77.4 percent of his passes. Oregon went 12-2 in 2023.

Bo Nix was tremendous as a rookie last year passing for 3,775 yards with 29 touchdown to 12 interceptions in 17 starts. He added 430 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. His two games with at least 300 passing yards, 4 touchdowns and a passer rating of 140+ set an NFL record. His 7 games without an interception tied an NFL rookie record. Nix finished second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting to fellow rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels — the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. 

Through two games on the season, Bo Nix has passed for 382 yards with 4 touchdown to 3 interceptions while completing 67.1 percent of his passes. Running back J.K. Dobbins (139 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns) and second-year wideout Troy Franklin (133 receiving yards, 1 touchdown) are the standouts on the offense alongside Nix. 

Denver signed the talented, but oft-injured J.K. Dobbins to a one-year deal in the offseason to be in a platoon role with highly-regarded rookie running back RJ Harvey. But Dobbins has tallied 30 carries to 11 for Harvey and may be emerging as Denver’s lead running back going forward. Troy Franklin was Bo Nix’s primary wide receiver (1,383 receiving yards, 14 touchdowns) at Oregon in 2023, and they could be on their way to duplicating that success with Denver this year.

The Broncos boasted one of the top defenses in the NFL last season. Their 63 sacks led the NFL and set a franchise record. Superstar cornerback Patrick Surtain II was named the 2024 Defensive Player of the Year after finishing with 45 tackles, 4 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery and 1 PIck-Six. At just 25-years-old, Surtain II has the potential to be one of the great defensive backs of all time with his speed and lockdown abilities. 

Denver likely improved an already elite defense by adding talented safety Talanoa Hufanga as a free agent in the offseason signing the former San Fransisco 49er to a three-year, $39 million contract. A torn ACL in November 2023, along with wrist and ankle injuries last year limited Hufanga to a total of 17 games over the last 2 seasons. But the 25-year-old was first-team All-Pro in just his second NFL season (2022). Hufanga is off to a fast start in Denver recording a team-high 21 tackles and one forced fumble through two games. 

GAME STORYLINES: LOS ANGELES

Much like today’s opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers also hired a big-name coach who quickly turned around their middling franchise. The Chargers hired Jim Harbaugh on Jan. 24, 2024 after he had just led the University of Michigan (his alma mater) to a 15-0 record and the College Football National Championship on Jan. 8. Harbaugh played 15 years in the NFL (1987-2001) and spent the 1999 and 2000 seasons with the Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh earned the reputation of being an exceptional coach who could immediately revive struggling teams in college and the NFL. Harbaugh led turnarounds at his four previous stops: the University of San Diego (2004-2006), Stanford University (2007-2010), the San Francisco 49ers (2011-2014) and the University of Michigan (2015-2023). Harbaugh’s career head coaching record in college is 133-52 (.719) and 51-22-1 (.696) in his four seasons with the San Francisco 49ers. 

Jim Harbaugh quickly turned around the Los Angeles Chargers by going 11-6 and making the postseason in his first year as head coach a year ago. The Chargers 11 wins last season marked a 6-game improvement over 2023 and was their highest win total since 2018 when they finished 12-4. Los Angeles made the playoffs for just the third time over the last 15 seasons last year. Harbaugh employed an old-school approach of a strong running game, a stout defense and an efficient passing game to win last season.

The Chargers carried the momentum of last season’s success into 2025 by picking up a statement win in a 27-21 upset of the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs in the season opener in Brazil. The Chargers ended a 7-game losing streak to the Chiefs. It was their first win against Kansas City since Sept. 26, 2021. 

Star quarterback Justin Herbert is off to a terrific start through two games passing for 560 yards with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. After being selected sixth overall in the 2020 NFL draft, Herbert amassed a prolific first two years passing for a rookie record 31 touchdowns in 2020 and 38 in 2021. His numbers went down over the next 2 seasons due to injury and slew of hard-luck losses. 

Jim Harbaugh’s run-first approach also stymied Justin Herbert’s numbers (3,870 passing yards, 23 touchdowns) a bit last year, but Herbert threw just 3 intercepitons and totaled 5 turnovers in 17 games. Wideout Ladd McConkey was magnificent as a rookie last year totaling 82 catches for a team-leading 1,149 yards with 7 touchdowns in 16 games. He set the rookie franchise record for catches and yards in a season. McConkey has 14 catches for 122 yards through the first 2 games of 2025. 

Wideouts Quentin Johnson and veteran Keenan Allen, along with rookie running back Omarion Hampton are likely to be standouts in the Chargers offense alongside Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey. Johnson’s 8 touchdown catches in 2024 led the team. The 33-year-old Allen rejoins the Chargers after spending the first 11 years of his career with the organization before being traded to the Chicago Bears last season. Allen is the franchise leader in receptions and receiving yards. 

Last season, the Chargers defense gave up the fewest number of points (301), finished as the 7th ranked defense and registered 46 sacks which ranked 6th in the NFL. All-Pro safety Derwin James Jr., linebacker Tuli Tuipulotu, and cornerback Elijah Molden are standouts from last year’s defense who return in 2025. The defense has begun the year with a pair of terrific performances in their wins against Kansas City and Las Vegas. 

THE PICK: CHARGERS (-2)

After picking up 2 division wins away from home, I think the Chargers get the win in their home opener against the Broncos. Justin Herbert is off to a hot start, the Chargers defense looks dominant again this year through 2 games and Jim Harbaugh appears to have successfully turned around a fledgling team into winners in an expeditious manner. Lay the Points…Chargers 24, Broncos 17