NFL Picks 9/22 – LA Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL Picks 9/22 – LA Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Week Three of the NFL season presents a battle of undefeated teams as the Los Angeles Chargers (2-0) visit the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) on Sunday afternoon at Acrisure Stadium. Sunday’s game will be the home opener for the Steelers. The teams are matching up for the first time since November 2021 when Los Angeles outlasted visiting Pittsburgh 41-37. The Chargers have won two straight games at Pittsburgh dating back to the 2012 season. Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point favorite and the total is 34.5. 

Los Angeles is coming off a 26-3 win at the hapless Carolina Panthers last Sunday. Newly acquired running back J.K. Dobbins rushed for 131 yards on 17 carries – averaging 7.7 yards per rush – and added a touchdown in the win. Dobbins rushed for 131 yards on just 10 carries in the Chargers season-opening 22-10 win against the visiting Las Vegas Raiders. He’s the first running back to open the season with back-to-back games of at least 130 yards and a touchdown since 1998 when San Francisco’s Garrison Hearst did it.  Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert completed 14 of 20 passes and threw two touchdown passes to wide receiver Quentin Johnson. 

Pittsburgh held off the host Denver Broncos 13-6 last week behind a second straight dominant performance from their defense. The Steelers defense intercepted Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix twice and limited the Broncos running game to just 64 yards on 19 carries. Justin Fields completed 13 of 20 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown in the Steelers win. He added 27 rushing yards on eight carries. 

GAME STORYLINES: LOS ANGELES

After years of underachieving and losing close games under head coaches Anthony Lynn and Brandon Staley, the Los Angeles Chargers made the audacious move of hiring Jim Harbaugh as its head coach last January. Harbaugh led his alma mater Michigan to a 15-0 record and the National Championship weeks before the hiring. Harbaugh played quarterback in the NFL for 15 seasons (1987-2001), two of those seasons were with the Chargers in 1999 and 2000. 

For the last 20 years, Jim Harbaugh has established himself as an elite turnaround artist through four previous head coaching stints – University of San Diego (2004-2006), Stanford University (2007-2010), the San Francisco 49ers (2011-2014) and the University of Michigan (2015-2023) – in the NFL and college. Harbaugh’s career head coaching record in college is 133-52 (.719) and his record with the 49ers was 51-22-1 (.696) in four seasons.

NFL Picks 9/22 – LA Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

In his first NFL head coaching gig, Harbaugh led the San Francisco 49ers to 3 consecutive NFC Championships and a Super Bowl appearance after the franchise suffered through 8 straight losing seasons. Many will expect Harbaugh to make a similar or greater impact with the Chargers as he inherits a team with more talent than what he started with in San Francisco in 2011.

Franchise quarterback Justin Herbert is in his fifth season with the Chargers and has experienced a topsy-turvy NFL career. Herbert entered the NFL with enormous expectations after being selected sixth overall in the 2020 NFL draft out of Oregon. Despite being the third quarterback chosen – behind Joe Burrow (1st) and Tua Tagovailoa  (5th)– in the 2020 draft, Herbert was named the 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year after a spectacular NFL debut. Herbert passed for 4,336 yards with 31 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. He’s the only rookie quarterback in NFL history to throw for 30+ touchdowns.

Justin Herbert followed up his historic rookie campaign with an even better second season as he threw for 5,014 yards with 38 touchdowns to 15 interceptions while completing 65.9 percent of his passes. He was named an All-Pro in year two. Herbert has seen a significant decrease in his touchdowns over the past two seasons – 69 combined touchdowns passes over his first two seasons down to 45 in 2022 and 2023 – as he’s dealt with injuries of his own and injuries to his star skill position players. 

NFL Picks 9/22 – LA Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

The days of Justin Herbert’s explosive passing numbers may be over as Jim Harbaugh prefers winning with a punishing running attack and a stout defense. Herbert has thrown for less than 150 yards in both games this season, while the Chargers are rushing for nearly 200 yards per game and have given up just 13 points. Herbert suffered a right high ankle sprain in the win at Carolina last week. He did not practice at all this week and is considered questionable for Sunday’s game at Pittsburgh. 

The Chargers dynamic ground game through the first 2 weeks has been buoyed by the additions of former Baltimore running backs J.K. Dobbins (266 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns this season) and Gus Edwards (85 rushing yards this season). Both guys played under Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman in Baltimore. The 25-year-old speedster Dobbins is averaging a whopping 9.9 yards per carry. His NFL career has been doomed by injuries after an impressive rookie season where he rushed for 805 yards and 9 touchdowns across 15 games in 2020. 

The injuries limited J.K. Dobbins to just 9 games over the last 3 seasons since his great rookie year in 2020. Dobbins missed the entire 2021 season after tearing his ACL in a 2021 preseason game and then tore his Achilles in the 2023 season opener. It appears as if Dobbins still has the game-breaking speed he had prior to the injuries and may be poised for a breakout year with the Chargers. 

GAME STORYLINES: PITTSBURGH

For 18 seasons (2004-2021), future Hall of Famer Ben Roethlisberger was the Pittsburgh Steelers starting quarterback. He won 2 Super Bowls and made the Pro Bowl six times. In what looked to be a feel good story, Pittsburgh drafted University of Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft, which was a few months after Roethlisberger retired. Unfortunately, Pickett never developed into the franchise quarterback that Pittsburgh envisioned and he was jettisoned after just 2 seasons. The Steelers traded Pickett to Philadelphia for a 2024  third round pick and 2 future seventh round picks in the offseason.  

Instead of drafting a young quarterback to fill the quarterback void again, Pittsburgh decided to have a competition for the starting spot between 2 quarterbacks with varying levels of NFL experience/success in 35-year-old Super Bowl champion Russell Wilson and 25-year-old Justin Fields. Both players had fizzled out in their previous stops in Denver and Chicago respectively, and Pittsburgh could be an opportunity to resurrect or revive their careers. 

NFL Picks 9/22 – LA Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

The 35-year-old, 9-time Pro Bowler Russell Wilson won the starting job over Justin Fields in the preseason but he sustained a calf injury prior to the season opener. This allowed the younger Fields to start the season and the former first-rounder has guided Pittsburgh to a 2-0 start. If Pittsburgh keeps winning with Fields, it may be difficult for head coach Mike Tomlin to give the starting job back to Wilson.

The key to Pittsburgh’s 2-0 start this season and the reason they’ve been able to maintain a respectable record with mediocre quarterback play in recent years has been their elite defense. In particular, superstar linebacker T.J. Watt! The 29-year-old, 4-time All-Pro has recorded 7 tackles, 2 sacks and a fumble recovery in 2 games this season. He registered 68 tackles, 19 sacks, 4 forced fumbles and 1 interception in 17 games last season and finished second in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award voting.

Other standouts on the defense include safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (14 tackles this season), linebacker Alex Highsmith (10 tackles, 1 sack), safety Damontae Kazee (7 tackles, 1 interception) and newly acquired All-Pro linebacker Patrick Queen (6 tackles). The Steelers signed the 25-year-old Queen as a free agent from bitter division rival Baltimore in May. The fifth-year LSU product Queen has registered at least 100 sacks in 3 of his 4 NFL seasons. 

The offense is led by the trio of wide receiver George Pickens (8 catches for 114 yards in 2 games) along with the 2-headed running back attack of Najee Harris (37 carries for 139 yards) and Jaylen Warren (49 rushing yards, 32 receiving yards). The 23-year-old, third-year wideout Pickens improved in each of his first 2 seasons with Pittsburgh and has established himself as the team’s top pass catcher. Warren has been limited by a hamstring injury through the first 2 weeks but once he gets back to full strength, there should be an even distribution of touches between him and Harris.

THE PICK: PITTSBURGH (-2.5)

Pittsburgh may have the top defense in the NFL, and they are playing their home opener against a hobbled quarterback in Justin Herbert. Lay the points…Pittsburgh 24, L.A. Chargers 13 

NFL Picks 9/22 – LA Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers