MLB Picks 8/11 – Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox

MLB Picks 8/11 – Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox

The AL West-leading Houston Astros (61-55) will look to complete a three-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox (61-54) this afternoon at venerable Fenway Park. Houston won the opener 8-4 on Friday night and then held on for a 5-4 win yesterday. Houston has now won five in a row at Boston and eight of the last ten overall in the series. The teams will meet again for a three-game series in Houston beginning on Aug. 19.

In Friday night’s opener, Houston scored seven runs off Boston’s bullpen en route to an 8-4 victory. Jose Altuve’s two-run homer in the top of the seventh tied the game at three and sparked Houston’s rally. Jon Singleton and Jeremy Pena added RBI singles in the decisive seventh inning. Yainer Diaz added a two-run 448-foot homer in the top of the ninth inning that extended Houston’s lead to 8-3. 

Houston received splendid performances from All-Star Yordan Alvarez and rookie starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti in yesterday’s 5-4 win. Alvarez hit two homers and drove in three runs, while Arrighetti struck out a season-high 13 over seven innings for Houston. Alvarez has torched Boston in Fenway Park throughout his career, he’s batting .463 with 7 homers and 19 RBI at Boston. Astros rookie first baseman Zach Dezenzo hit his first career homer in the win. Danny Jansen and Masataka Yoshida each hit solo homers for Boston in the loss.

This afternoon’s starters are Hunter Brown (9-7, 3.98 ERA, 130 K’s in 23 starts) for Houston and James Paxton (9-3, 4.42 ERA, 73 K’s in 20 starts between Boston and the Los Angeles Dodgers) for Boston. 

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Houston -138,   Boston +118

Run Line: Houston -1.5 (+106),   Boston +1.5 (-128)

Run Total: over 10 (-120)    under 10 (-102)      

GAME STORYLINES: HOUSTON

The mighty Houston Astros got off to an uncharacteristically slow start this year. They opened the season on what appeared to be an ominous note after getting swept by the New York Yankees in four games at home. Things went from bad to worse for the Astros as they found themselves a season-worst 12 games under .500 (12-24) on May 8. Houston has since righted the ship by going 49-31 since the 12-24 start and are now tied with Seattle for first place in the AL West.

If Houston wins the American League West this year, it will be their seventh consecutive division crown after a full season and eighth straight postseason appearance. Houston has also won two World Series crowns (2017 and 2022) during this current stretch of dominance. They’ve also posted the three winningest seasons in franchise history – 107 wins in 2019, 106 wins in 2022, and 103 wins in 2018 – within these last six seasons of stellar play.

At the plate, Houston’s potent lineup is led by superstar outfielder Yordan Alvarez. The 27-year-old, three-time All-Star Alvarez is batting .304 with 24 homers and 62 RBI through 111 games. He leads the Astros in all three categories and was voted in as a starter at this year’s All-Star game for the first time in his career. Alvarez has been red-hot during the Astros current four-game winning streak as he’s hitting .436 with 4 homers and 7 RBI. 

MLB Picks 8/11 – Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox

Eight-time All-Star Jose Altuve (.299, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 15 steals in 113 games), third baseman Alex Bregman (.258, 16 HR, 54 RBI in 112 games) and All-Star right fielder Kyle Tucker (.266, 19 HR, 40 RBI in 60 games) are also having great seasons. The 34-year-old, 2017 AL MVP Altuve continues to produce at a high level in his 14th MLB season – all with the Astros. The 30-year-old Bregman is on pace to hit 20+ homers for the fifth time in his career. He homered in yesterday’s 5-4 win at Boston and has 2 or more hits in four straight games. 

The 27-year-old superstar Kyle Tucker is currently on the 60-day injured list with a right shin contusion. He has not played since June 3 and isn’t expected back anytime soon as he’s unable to even sprint at the moment. He does have 19 homers in 60 games which shows how lethal of a hitter he is. Tucker was selected as an All-Star for the third straight season this year but was unable to play due to the shin injury. 

GAME STORYLINES: BOSTON

After vanquishing the 86-year ‘Curse of the Bambino’ by winning the 2004 World Series, the Boston Red Sox went on to put together a dominant two-decade run that saw them win three more World Series crowns in 2007, 2013 and 2018. However, the last 2 seasons have been big disappointments as Boston has finished with identical 78-84 records and consecutive last place finishes in the American League East. Inconsistent pitching and a lack of reliable hitters outside of superstar Rafael Devers were the biggest reasons for the back-to-back losing seasons. Boston has somewhat fixed both of those weaknesses this season which has led to an improved record.

In 2023, Boston’s pitching staff ranked among the bottom half of MLB in ERA and WHIP. This season Boston has improved their team ERA from 4.52 to 4.05 mainly due to the consistent pitching of starters Tanner Huock (8-8, 3.02 ERA, 124:33 K:BB in 23 starts) and Kutter Crawford (7-9, 4.11 ERA, 125:33 K:BB in 23 starts). Boston acquired today’s starter James Paxton (1-1, 4.35 ERA in 2 starts with Boston) from the Dodgers in a trade on July 26. He’s expected to be Boston’s No. 5 starter but could end up being their third best hurler behind Huock and Crawford. He pitched for Boston last year before departing for the Dodgers as a free agent in the offseason.

At the plate, Boston is led by the dynamic duo of superstar third baseman Rafael Devers (.300, 25 HR, 71 RBI, 30 doubles in 103 games) and emerging star center fielder Jarren Duran (.293, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 36 doubles, 13 triples, 29 steals in 115 games). The 27-year-old, three-time All-Star Devers leads Boston in batting average, homers and RBI. He’s led Boston in homers and RBI in each of the last four seasons. 

MLB Picks 8/11 – Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox

The versatile 25-year-old Jarren Duran is having a breakout campaign in his third full big-league season and was named an All-Star for the first time in his career. He has the potential to be an elite five-tool player (hitting for power, hitting for average, speed, throwing arm strength, and fielding ability) if he gets his home run total up slightly. Duran’s improvement this year has played a significant role in Boston’s increased win total.

Left fielder Tyler O’Neill (.268, 22 HR, 45 RBI in 80 games), catcher Connor Wong (.293, 10 HR, 40 RBI in 88 games) and rookies Ceddane Rafaela (.260, 13 HR, 58 RBI, 16 steals in 113 games) and Wilyer Abreu (.269, 12 HR, 44 RBI in 89 games) have also been key contributors alongside Devers and Duran. Boston picked up O’Neill from St. Louis in a trade last December and he’s already hit the second-most homers of his career 7-year MLB career. He has an outside shot of reaching or surpassing his career-high of 34 homers which he hit in 2021 with St. Louis. 

The 28-year-old Connor Wong has already surpassed his home run and RBI totals from last year, which was his first full big-league season. His .293 batting average would also be a career-high. The rookies Rafaela and Abreu have been fantastic all season. The 23-year-old Rafaela plays everyday at shortstop or the outfield while the 25-year-old Abreu is in a platoon role as an outfielder but both guys have amassed similar production for Boston.

THE PICK: ASTROS (Moneyline)

Houston has dominated Boston of late and they appear to be in postseason mode as the season is heading into the final stretch. Take the Astros on the moneyline this afternoon!

MLB Picks 8/11 – Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox