MLB Picks 8/5 – Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals

MLB Picks 8/5 – Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals

The Boston Red Sox (59-51) open a three-game series at the Kansas City Royals (63-50) tonight at Kauffman Stadium. This is the second and final series matchup between these two teams during the regular season. They squared off last month just before the All-Star break with Boston winning two of three games at home. Boston is 8-3 against Kansas City dating back to September 2022.

Boston is coming off a 7-2 win at Texas yesterday. Red Sox rookie outfielder Wilyer Abreu homered twice and tied a career-high with four RBI in the win. Abreu’s three-run homer in the top of the sixth inning extended Boston’s lead to 6-2. All-Star outfielder Jarren Duran went 3-for-4 with a homer and two RBI. Boston won two of three at Texas. 

Kansas City returns home after completing an impressive 6-1 road trip where they swept the lowly Chicago White Sox and then took three of four from the Detroit Tigers. In yesterday’s win at Detroit, left fielder MJ Melendez hit a pinch-hit three-run homer with two outs in the top of the ninth inning that propelled Kansas City to a dramatic 3-2 win. It was his 13th homer of the season. Royals right fielder Hunter Renfroe went 2-for-4 in the win.

Tonight’s starters are James Paxton (8-3, 4.52 ERA, 69 K’s in 19 starts) for Boston and Brady Singer (8-6, 2.88 ERA, 115 K’s in 22 starts) for Kansas City. 

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Boston +120,   Kansas City -142

Run Line: Boston +1.5 (-160),   Kansas City -1.5 (+132)

Run Total: over 9.5 (-114)     under 9.5 (+106)

GAME STORYLINES: BOSTON

After breaking the 86-year ‘Curse of the Bambino’ by winning the 2004 World Series and then winning 3 more World Series crowns in 2007, 2013 and 2018, the Boston Red Sox established themselves as the preeminent franchise in baseball. However, the past two seasons have brought disappointment as Boston posted identical 78-84 records and consecutive last place finishes in the ultra-competitive American League East division.

Inconsistent starting pitching and the inability to develop and/or sign hitters to complement superstar Rafael Devers were the biggest reasons for the underachieving 2022 and 2023 seasons. Boston ranked among the bottom half of MLB in ERA and WHIP over the last two seasons, their team ERA was well close to 5.00. This season the team ERA is at 3.97 which ranks 13th in MLB as the four remaining starters from last season have all been fairly consistent this season. 

MLB Picks 8/5 – Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals

The emergence of left fielder Jarren Duran and the addition of outfielder Tyler O’Neill has also played a big role in Boston’s turnaround this season. The 27-year-old Duran is experiencing a breakout campaign in his third full big-league season. He’s batting .296 with 14 homers, 55 RBI, 34 doubles, 13 triples and 26 stolen bases through 110 games. He was named an All-Star this season for the first time in his career. 

The newly acquired outfielder Tyler O’Neill (.268, 22 HR, 45 RBI in 80 games) is playing very well in his first season with Boston. Boston picked up O’Neill in a trade from St. Louis last December and he’s approaching the great production of his career-best 2021 season when he hit .286 with 34 homers and 80 RBI. The tremendous production of Duran and O’Neill has provided relief for Rafael Devers in the lineup as teams can no longer get away with pitching around him.

The aforementioned Rafael Devers is putting together another stellar season at the plate. The 27-year-old superstar is batting .305 with 25 homers and 70 RBI through 98 games. He leads Boston in all three categories and is on pace to hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs for the third time in four seasons. Devers was named an All-Star for the third time this season. He enters tonight’s game on an 11-game hitting streak, seven of those have been multi-hit games.

Boston has received a significant boost from a trio of rookies in center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela (.257, 13 HR, 57 RBI, 16 steals in 108 games), right fielder Wilyer Abreu (.275, 12 HR, 42 RBI in 84 games) and speedy shortstop David Hamilton (.253, 6 HR, 19 RBI, 28 steals in 78 games). The 23-year-old Rafaela is the headliner of the bunch due to being the only everyday player but the other two have provided solid production in platoon roles. 

GAME STORYLINES: KANSAS CITY

Not much was expected of the Kansas City Royals entering the 2024 season after they finished last season with a horrific 56-106 record. They tied the 2005 team for the most losses in franchise history. Kansas City has not had a winning season since 2015 when they finished 95-67 and won the World Series. Everything pointed towards another dismal season for the 2024 Kansas City Royals but they’ve defied the odds and have put together a terrific season as they enter tonight’s game with a surprising 63-50 record. 

Kansas City is currently 2.5 games ahead of Boston for the final Wild Card spot and 5 games behind the first-place Cleveland Guardians in the American League Central division. The biggest reason for this season’s stunning turnaround is the revamped pitching staff. Kansas City’s 3.76 ERA ranks 6th in MLB, and their 56 quality starts ranks 3rd. The Royals possess one of the best starting rotations in MLB.

MLB Picks 8/5 – Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals

The four-man pitching rotation of Seth Lugo (13-5, 2.57 ERA, 127:33 K:BB in 23 starts), Cole Ragans (8-7, 3.36 ERA, 159:45 K:BB in 23 starts), Brady Singer (8-6, 2.88 ERA, 115:36 K:BB in 22 starts) and Michael Wacha (8-6, 3.55 ERA, 93 K’s in 20 starts) has been magnificent this season. The 34-year-old veteran Lugo is having a career-year in his first season with the Royals. He leads MLB in wins and ERA, and his 17 quality starts ranks 3rd. He was named an All-Star for the first time in his 9-year career this season. Ragans 157 strikeouts ranks 4th amongst all starting pitchers. The 26-year-old has emerged as one of the top pitchers in MLB in just his second full season as a starter. He was also selected as an All-Star this season.

At the plate, the duo of superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (.344, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 10 triples, 25 steals in 113 games) and veteran Salvador Perez (.279, 20 HR, 75 RBI in 110 games) lead Kansas City’s offense again this season. The 24-year-old Witt entered the big leagues with enormous expectations after he was selected No. 2 overall in the 2019 MLB draft and being the son of former 16-year MLB pitcher Bobby Witt Sr. He has quickly established himself as one of the MLB’s top players already in his third season. Witt’s .344 batting average leads all of MLB and he’s one of four players with 20 homers and 20 steals on the season. 

The 34-year-old veteran Salvador Perez has spent his entire 14-year MLB career with Kansas City. He was the named the 2015 World Series MVP when Kansas City knocked off the New York Mets in 5 games. He made the All-Star team this year for the 9th time in his career. Perez is also having his best statistical season since 2021 when he delivered career highs of 48 homers and 121 RBI.

THE PICK: ROYALS (Run Line)

I expect Kansas City will play this game with playoff intensity as they return home after a sparkling 6-1 road trip. The raucous Kansas City crowd cheering for the home team as they battle a big-name opponent like the Red Sox should also inspire the Royals. Take the Royals on the run line! 

MLB Picks 8/5 – Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals