MLB Picks 7/5 – Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

MLB Picks 7/5 – Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Boston Red Sox (47-39) open a three-game series on the road against the New York Yankees (54-35) tonight at Yankee Stadium. The long-time, bitter American League East rivals are matching up for the second time this season. Boston took two of three against the visiting Yankees last month. Boston also swept a three-game series against New York the last time they played at Yankee Stadium in August 2023. The Red Sox have won five of the last six meetings in New York dating back to last season.

Boston enters tonight’s contest on a four-game winning streak after beating the host Miami Marlins 6-5 in 12 innings. Automatic runner Romy Gonzalez scored the go-ahead run on second baseman David Hamilton’s groundout which put Boston up 5-4. Outfielder Tyler O’Neill then connected on an RBI double that extended the lead to 6-4. O’Neill went 3-for-5 yesterday and drove in two runs. Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta struck out ten batters over seven innings. He had a no-hitter going into the seventh inning. Boston swept the three-game set at Miami and has won four in a row.

The New York Yankees enter tonight’s game reeling after a shocking three-game sweep at home by the Cincinnati Reds. New York gave up three home runs to Cincinnati in yesterday’s 8-4 loss. Cincinnati became the first National League team to sweep a regular-season interleague series at Yankee Stadium. It was also the first time Cincinnati had ever swept New York in ten regular season series matchups. Yankees rookie first baseman Ben Rice hit his first career home run in yesterday’s loss. New York has lost seven of their last eight home games and are an MLB-worst 4-13 since June 15. 

Tonight’s starters are Tanner Houck (7-6, 2.67 ERA, 105 K’s in 17 starts) for Boston and Nestor Cortes (4-7, 3.51 ERA, 98 K’s in 18 starts) for New York.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Boston +120,   New York -142

Run Line:     Boston +1.5 (-184),   New York -1.5 (+152)  

Run Total:    over 8 (-118)   under 8 (-104)    

GAME STORYLINES: BOSTON

Over the last 20 seasons, the Boston Red Sox have been the symbolism of excellence as they’ve won four World Series titles in 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018. So, the last 2 seasons that have resulted in identical 78-84 records and last place finishes in the American League East have been very disappointing. Boston’s faulty starting pitching was the biggest reason for the underachieving seasons as they ranked among the bottom half of MLB in ERA and WHIP.    

Boston’s starting pitching has improved tremendously this year as the team now ranks seventh in ERA (3.59) and sixth in WHIP (1.18). The four returning starters from last year’s rotation – Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello, and Nick Pivetta – have all been fairly consistent this season. All four guys were inconsistent and somewhat injury prone last year. The quality starting pitching has resulted in more wins as Boston enters tonight’s game at 47-39. They will likely end their 2-year postseason drought this season.

MLB Picks 7/5 – Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

Starting pitcher Tanner Houck (7-6, 2.67 ERA 105:19 K:BB in 17 starts) has been excellent this season. The 28-year-old, 6-foot-5 Houck was selected by Boston in the first round of the 2017 MLB draft (No. 24 overall) out of Missouri and he has now established himself as Boston’s ace this season in year four. His 2.67 ERA ranks fourth in MLB among starting pitchers. Houck takes the mound tonight at Yankee Stadium.

At the plate, Boston is led by power-hitting star third baseman Rafael Devers. The 27-year-old, two-time All-Star Devers is putting together another fantastic season offensively as he’s batting .288 with 18 homers and 51 RBI through 74 games. He leads Boston in batting average, homers and RBI. Devers has led Boston in homers and RBI in each of the last four seasons. He drove in two runs in yesterday’s 6-5 win at Miami without collecting a hit with two RBI groundouts. 

GAME STORYLINES: NEW YORK

In 2023, the New York Yankees finished fourth in the American League East with an 82-80 record – their worst record since a 76-86 mark in 1992. Prolonged injuries for stars like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Anthony Rizzo doomed the Yankees for almost the entire 2023 season. New York also failed to make the postseason for the first time since the 2016 season.

Anyone familiar with the history of the Yankees organization knew big changes were coming after their tough 2023 season. New York did not waste any time making changes as they acquired 25-year-old superstar outfielder Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres via trade a few weeks after the season in December. New York gave up 5 players in the deal. The three-time All-Star and World Series champion Soto hit a career-high 35 homers with San Diego last season. His 109 RBI last year was one short of his career-high mark that he set with Washington in 2019. 

MLB Picks 7/5 – Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

Juan Soto has exceeded expectations in his first season wearing the pinstripes as he’s batting .300 with 21 homers, 63 RBI and an MLB-leading 75 walks across 85 games. He blasted a two-run homer in yesterday’s loss to Cincinnati. The only issue with Soto is he’s set to become a free agent after the season. And when you factor in his young age and tremendous production over 7 spectacular MLB seasons, Soto could command a long-term deal in the neighborhood of $600 million. 

Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner initially commented that the Yankees enormous payroll was not sustainable prior to the start of the season, but he has since shied away from those statements. Steinbrenner’s change of heart could mean the Yankees may sign Soto to an astronomical long-term deal before this season ends. 

The Yankees got off to a tremendous start behind the dangerous power hitting trio of Soto, Aaron Judge (.283, 32 HR, 83 RBI, 62 walks) and Giancarlo Stanton (.246, 18 HR, 45 RBI). The 6-time All-Star and 2022 AL MVP Judge leads MLB in homers and RBI. He has a good shot at winning his second AL MVP in three seasons. Judge and Soto were recently named starters for the 2024 MLB All-Star game. Unfortunately, the oft-injured Stanton suffered a left hamstring strain against Atlanta on June 18 and has not played since. 

MLB Picks 7/5 – Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

The loss of Giancarlo Stanton has coincided with the Yankees poor play of late. New York had the best record in MLB at 51-24 on June 18 – the day Stanton was injured against Atlanta – and they’ve gone 3-11 ever since. Stanton has been on the injured list eight times in the last 6 seasons. Rookie Luis Gil has also struggled during the Yankees cold streak as he’s gone 0-3 and given up 16 earned runs over 9.2 innings in his last 3 starts. Gil was 9-1 with a 2.03 ERA prior to his June 20 start against Baltimore.  

THE PICK: RED SOX (ML)

The Red Sox have their best pitcher going tonight in Tanner Houck while the Yankees are currently imploding as they’ve literally been the worst team in baseball for about 3 weeks now. Take the Red Sox as a profitable underdog tonight!

MLB Picks 7/5 – Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees