MLB Picks 5/12 – Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

MLB Picks 5/12 – Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Philadelphia Phillies (28-12) visit the Miami Marlins (10-31) in the finale of a three-game series this afternoon at LoanDepot Park. Philadelphia won the first two games in dominant fashion by scores of 8-1 on Friday night and 8-3 yesterday. Phillies second baseman Bryson Stott went 2-for-5 with a triple and four RBI in yesterday’s win. He connected on a bases-clearing triple in the top of the sixth inning that gave the Phillies a 4-1 lead. The Phillies have won five of their last six meetings against the Marlins. The Marlins have dropped five in a row and seven of their last eight games. 

Today’s starters are Zack Wheeler (4-3, 1.64 ERA, 63 K’s) for Philadelphia and Braxton Garrett for Miami. Garrett will be making his season debut after being out with a left shoulder injury. He was 9-7 last year with a 3.63 ERA and 156:29 K:BB in 30 starts.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Philadelphia -245,  Miami +200

Run Line: Philadelphia -1.5 (-140),   Miami +1.5 (+116)

Run Total: over 7 (-110)   under 7 (-110)

GAME STORYLINES: PHILADELPHIA

For the past two seasons, the Philadelphia Phillies have turned somewhat underwhelming regular seasons into deep postseason runs. In 2022, the sixth-seeded Phillies advanced to the World Series and lost 4-2 to the Houston Astros. Last season, the fourth-seeded Phillies made a run to the NLCS where they were upset by the sixth-seeded Arizona Diamondbacks in an intense seven games. Philadelphia looks primed to take that next step in winning the World Series this season as they own the MLB’s best record at 28-12. The Phillies are off to their best 40-game start since the rag tag 1993 team that made it to the World Series.

As has been the case in the recent seasons, Philadelphia is being carried by a superb batting lineup. Philadelphia’s offense ranks second in batting average (.261), fifth in homers (48) and second in runs scored (207). Philadelphia’s plus-63 run differential is second in MLB to the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

Outfielder Kyle Schwarber (.217, 9 HR, 25 RBI), third baseman Alec Bohm (.343, 4 HR, 32 RBI), shortstop Trea Turner (.343, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 10 stolen bases) and first baseman Bryce Harper (.260, 9 HR, 29 RBI) are the standouts in a deep and talented lineup. Turner and Bohm are tied for fourth in hitting with their .343 batting average. Bohm’s 32 RBI ranks third in MLB. 

Philadelphia has also gotten terrific starting pitching from Ranger Suarez (7-0, 1.50 ERA, 55 K’s in 7 starts) and today’s starter Zack Wheeler (4-3, 1.64 ERA, 63 K’s in 7 starts). The 28-year-old southpaw Suarez off to a historic start as he leads the majors in wins, quality starts and is second in ERA among starting pitchers. He struck out a season-high 9 batters over 7 scoreless innings in his last start against Miami on Friday night. It was his fourth scoreless outing of the year. Wheeler’s 63 strikeouts and 1.64 ERA rank third in MLB.       

GAME STORYLINES: MIAMI

Last season the Miami Marlins were arguably the biggest surprise in MLB as they finished 84-77 and secured a playoff spot for the first time – after a full season – since 2003 when they won the World Series and were known as the Florida Marlins. Their last winning record was in 2009 when they finished 87-75. Unfortunately, things have taken a turn for the worse for the Marlins in 2024 as they own the worst record in MLB at 10-31.

The loss of slugger Jorge Soler and hitting machine Luis Arraez are the main reasons for Miami’s futility this season. Arraez and    Soler, along with holdover Bryan De La Cruz carried the Marlins offensively in 2023. Soler opted out of the final year of his three-year deal with Miami to become a free agent after hitting 36 homers and 75 RBI last season. He agreed to a 3-year, $42 million contract with San Francisco in February. Miami dealt Arraez to the San Diego Padres in exchange for four prospects on May 4. Arraez led the NL in batting last season. Not surprisingly, Miami now ranks in the bottom half of MLB in almost every offensive category.

One of the few bright spots for Miami this season is the play of left fielder Bryan De La Cruz. The 27-year-old is hitting .270 with 8 homers and 21 RBI through 41 games. With Arraez gone, De La Cruz now leads Miami in batting average, homers, RBI, hits, doubles and runs. He led the Marlins with 78 RBI last season even with stars Arraez and Soler on the team, which indicates his immense level of talent. De La Cruz will likely be Miami’s lone representative in this season’s All-Star game. 

First baseman Josh Bell (.200, 4 HR, 15 RBI), center fielder Jazz Chisolm Jr. (.243, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 8 stolen bases) and third baseman Jake Burger (.195, 3 HR, 15 RBI) were expected to elevate their production in the absence of Soler and Arraez but all three are having down years especially in terms of batting average. Chisolm has played better of late since moving to the leadoff spot after Arraez was traded. Bell and Burger were mid-season acquisitions last year who added power to the lineup.

Miami signed former Chicago Whitesox All-Star shortstop Tim Anderson to a 1-year, $5 million contract in the offseason. The 31-year-old, two-time All-Star has struggled in his first season with Marlins as he’s hitting just .197 with no homers and 6 RBI through 36 games. He is a career .279 hitter across 9 MLB seasons – all with the Whitesox – and hit over .300 in four straight seasons from 2019-2022.  

THE PICK: PHILLIES (Run Line)

Miami has lost 11 straight games by 2 runs or more, I don’t see why anything changes this afternoon as the Phillies own the best record in baseball and have scored 8 runs in each of the first two games against the Marlins in this series. Take the Phillies on the Run Line!