NBA Playoff Picks 5/4- Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets

NBA Playoff Picks 5/4 – Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Western Conference Semifinals kick off tonight with the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26) visiting the defending NBA Champion Denver Nuggets (57-25) in Game One on TNT. The teams are meeting for a second straight postseason. Denver eliminated eighth-seeded Minnesota 4-1 in the first round of the 2023 playoffs. The teams split four regular season matchups this season with each team winning once on the road. Denver is a 4.5-point favorite and the total is 208.5.

Minnesota advanced to the Western Conference semis after a surprising four-game sweep of the much-ballyhooed Phoenix Suns and their Big Three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Phoenix had actually won all three regular season games against Minnesota. It was Minnesota’s first playoff series win in 20 years when they outlasted the Sacramento Kings 83-80 in Game 7 of the 2004 West semis. It was also the first playoff series sweep in franchise history. 

Denver dispatched of the seventh-seeded Los Angeles Lakers in five games to advance to the West semis. Denver eliminated the Lakers from the playoffs for a second straight season. They swept the Lakers in the 2023 Western Conference finals en route to winning the franchise’s first NBA crown. Denver has won 14 of their last 16 playoff games dating back to the second round of the 2023 playoffs. 

GAME STORYLINES: MINNESOTA

In July 2007, the Minnesota Timberwolves made the decision to part ways with its superstar stalwart Kevin Garnett. After being selected with the No. 5 overall pick out of high school in 1995, Garnett spent 12 extraordinary seasons in Minnesota where he was named an All-Star 10 times and won the 2004 MVP award. The post-Garnett era brought a lot of misery for Minnesota as they suffered 10 straight losing seasons – from 2008 though 2017 – and 13 losing seasons in 16 years.  

Through all the terrible seasons post-Garnett, Minnesota landed the No. 1 overall pick on two occasions in 2015 and 2020. The Timberwolves didn’t whiff on either pick as they selected Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns first overall in 2015 and Georgia’s Anthony Edwards in 2020. Both guys quickly became elite players in the NBA, Towns was named the 2016 Rookie of the Year, while Edwards was the runner-up for the award in 2021. 

The seamless transitions of Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards to the NBA along with the acquisition of defensive standout Rudy Gobert in July 2022 has led to the tremendous success of the 2023-24 Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota increased their win total by 14 games this season which catapulted them from the eighth-seed to the third-seed. Minnesota’s 56 wins is their most since the 2004 season when they went 58-24 and made it to the Western Conference finals. 

At just 22-years-old, Anthony Edwards has already established himself as a superstar in the NBA and is being compared to a young Michael Jordan due to his scoring exploits, athleticism and stellar playoff performances. The two-time All-Star averaged a career-high 25.9 points, along with 5.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.3 steals and 2.3 threes on 46.1 percent shooting from the floor in 79 games during the regular season. Edwards was even better in his first career playoff series victory against Phoenix where he averaged 31 points, 8 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 2 steals and 3.5 threes on 51.2 percent shooting from the floor and 43.8 percent shooting from beyond the arc. Edwards owns a career 28.9 ppg average through his first 15 playoff games.

In addition to the virtuoso performance from Anthony Edwards against Phoenix in the first round, Minnesota had 5 players – Karl Anthony Towns (19.3 ppg), Rudy Gobert (15 ppg), Jaden McDaniels (14.3 ppg), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (12.3 ppg), and Mike Conley (11.8 ppg) – average double-figures versus Phoenix. 2023-24 Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid averaged 9.5 ppg against Phoenix. Reid was invaluable during the regular season as he did a tremendous job providing scoring and three-point shooting off the bench. He also played very well filling in for Towns who missed 20 games due to injury.

GAME STORYLINES: DENVER 

For decades, the Denver Nuggets were never quite good enough to get past the Los Angeles Lakers. Whether it was Magic Johnson in the 1980’s, Shaq and Kobe in the late 90’s through the 2010’s or Anthony Davis and LeBron in the 2020 Orlando playoff bubble, the Lakers were going to end Denver’s season. Denver has reversed their fortunes against the Lakers in a huge way over these past two seasons as they swept the Lakers in the 2023 Western Conference finals and eliminated them in 5 games in the first round last week. 

The magnificent play of two-time MVP Nikola Jokic has ignited Denver’s rise to the top of the NBA. After winning back-to-back MVPs in 2021 and 2022 but falling short in the playoffs, everything came together for Denver in 2023. Jokic continued to play at an elite level as injured stars Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. returned to full health which resulted in a 53-29 finish and the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Denver went on to win the franchise’s first NBA championship last season with Jokic delivering a historic NBA Finals performance. Jokic averaged 30.2 points, 14 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 1.4 blocks on 58.3 percent shooting from the floor and 42.1 percent shooting from long distance as Denver beat Miami in 5 games.                   

Nikola Jokic continued to play at an MVP-caliber level again this season finishing with averages of 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, 9 assists, 1.4 steals on 58.2 percent shooting from the floor in 79 games. If Jokic is named the NBA’s MVP this year, he’ll become the 9th player in NBA history to win in at least 3 times. Jokic manhandled the Lakers again in Denver’s first round series victory when he averaged 28.2 points, 16.2 rebounds, 9.8 assists and 1.2 steals on 59.1 percent shooting from the floor. 

Jamal Murray (23.6 pts, 7.2 asts, 1 blk, 2 threes) and Michael Porter Jr. (22.8 pts, 8.4 rebs, 1.2 stls, 4 threes, 55.3% from 2, 48.8% from 3) were also excellent in Denver’s first round series win over the Lakers. Murray hit the game-winning baskets in Games 2 and 5 against the Lakers. He averaged 32.5 ppg on 52 percent shooting from the floor versus the Lakers in last year’s Western Conference Finals. The availability of Murray and Porter Jr. over these past 2 seasons is a big reason Denver is in a good position to win back-to-back NBA championships. 

THE PICK: NUGGETS (-4.5)

Minnesota crushing Phoenix in the 1st round was a great story but I need to see a little more before we crown them and Anthony Edwards. I think Denver being just a 4.5-point favorite at home is a bargain. Lay the Points and take the Nuggets!