NBA Picks 3/24 – Oklahoma City Thunder @ Milwaukee Bucks

NBA Picks 3/24 – Oklahoma City Thunder @ Milwaukee Bucks

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Western Conference leading Oklahoma City Thunder (49-20) visit the Milwaukee Bucks (45-25) tonight at Fiserv Forum on NBA TV.  Milwaukee is a 2-point favorite and the total is 231.5. This is the first of two meetings between these teams. Milwaukee has dominated the series of late winning seven of the last eight against Oklahoma City dating back to November 2019. Something will have to give tonight as Oklahoma City has won four of their last five road games, while Milwaukee has won seven of their last eight home games.

Oklahoma City enters tonight’s contest on a four-game winning streak after a 123-103 victory at Toronto on Friday night. Oklahoma City superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 23 points in the win. Milwaukee held off the visiting Brooklyn Nets 115-108 on Friday night as Damian Lillard finished with a game-high 30 points for the Bucks. It was his third straight game with at least 30 points.

GAME STORYLINES: OKLAHOMA CITY

After finishing 44-28 during the 2019-20 COVID-shortened season with a makeshift roster of veterans and younger players, the Oklahoma City Thunder made the decision to start from scratch and build around young players, specifically promising second-year star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The next two seasons saw Oklahoma City struggle as they finished with records of 22-50 in 2021-22 and 24-58 in 2022-23. Despite the down years, Gilgeous-Alexender improved immensely during those two seasons, averaging 23.7 ppg and 24.5 ppg respectively. Oklahoma City also selected Josh Giddy with the No. 6 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft and then chose Chet Holmgren (No. 2 overall) and Jalen Williams (No. 12 overall) in the first round of the 2022 NBA Draft.  

The improvement of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, along with drafting Josh Giddy, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams has led to a quick and stunning turnaround for Oklahoma City. They finished 40-42 last season which was a 16-game improvement over the 2021-22 season, and narrowly missed out on a playoff spot. The biggest reason for the turnaround was the spectacular play of Gilgeous-Alexander who averaged a career-high 31.4 ppg and was named an All-Star and a first-team All-NBA selection for the first time in his career. An improved Giddy in year two – 16.6 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 6.2 apg – and a tremendous rookie campaign from Williams were also key factors in OKC’s improvement last year.

The 25-year-old Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been even better this season in year five, he was named an All-Star game starter and is one of the leading candidates for the NBA’s MVP award as he’s led Oklahoma City to the best record in the Western Conference at 49-20. Oklahoma City is on pace to have their most wins since the 2013-14 season when they finished 59-23 and made it to the Western Conference Finals. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.8 points, 6.4 assists, 5.9 rebounds and 2.1 steals while shooting 54.2 percent from the floor across 68 games on the season. 

Another big reason for Oklahoma City’s success this season is the arrival of highly touted big man Chet Holmgren. After missing his entire 2022-23 rookie season with a Lisfranc injury to his right foot, the 21-year-old Holmgren has exceeded all expectations in his first NBA season. The 7-foot-1 sensation is averaging 17.1 points, 8 rebounds, 2.4 blocks while shooting 54.1 percent from the floor and 39.1 percent from long distance across 69 games. Holmgren has 21 double-doubles on the season. The young duo of Holmgren and Gilgeous-Alexander will likely lead Oklahoma City to extraordinary heights in the near future if they remain healthy. 

GAME STORYLINES: MILWAUKEE

After several years of playoff disappointments, the Milwaukee Bucks were finally able to breakthrough and win the 2020-21 NBA championship. Superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged 35.2 points, 13.2 rebounds, 5 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.2 steals in those finals as Milwaukee knocked off Phoenix in 6 games. The franchise’s only other NBA title came exactly 50 years previous to that one. More championships seemed inevitable, but the past two seasons have ended in disappointment. The 2021-22 season ended with a second-round loss to Boston and last season ended with a shocking first round loss to the No. 8 seed Miami Heat.

Milwaukee’s playoff failures of the last two seasons led to massive changes on and off the court. They’ve fired two head coaches within the last calendar year. Mike Budenholzer was fired on May 5, 2023 after Miami eliminated top seeded Milwaukee from the playoffs. His replacement Adrian Griffin was fired after just 43 games this season on Jan. 24 despite having a 30-13 record. Doc Rivers was hired as head coach two days later. Milwaukee also acquired 7-time All-Star Damian Lillard on Sep. 27 from Portland in a three-team trade. 

The surprising moves Milwaukee has made since winning the 2021 NBA crown has led to mixed results. Heavily scrutinized coach Doc Rivers struggled initially when he first took over as coach. He started out 3-7 through his first 10 games, but he’s somewhat righted the ship by going 10-4 since. Lillard has continued to play at a high level in his first season with Milwaukee, he’s putting up 24.6 points, 7.1 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 1 steal through 65 games. 

Amidst all of his tremendous accomplishments over his career, Giannis Antetokounmpo is quietly having his best season now in year 11. The 29-year-old, 8-time All Star is averaging 30.2 points, 12.8 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.0 steals while shooting a career-high 61.4 percent from the floor across 65 games. The recent return of veteran swingman Kris Middleton should really bolster Milwaukee. Middleton missed about 6 weeks with an ankle injury, he returned on Mar. 17 and has scored 22 points in both games he’s played in. Middleton has been injury prone for the last two seasons which has also played a part in Milwaukee’s early playoff exits. 

THE PICK: MILWAUKEE (-2)

Milwaukee has been playing well since Kris Middleton returned from injury and I think they’ll treat this nationally televised matchup with the Best in the West like a playoff game, Lay the Points and take the Bucks.