NBA Picks 3/18 – Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers

NBA Picks 3/18 – Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Miami Heat (37-30) visit the Philadelphia 76ers (37-30) at the Wells Fargo Center tonight on ESPN. Philadelphia is a 3-point favorite and the total is 208.5. This is the third of four meetings between these teams, Miami won the first two matchups and has won six of the last seven against Philadelphia. Both teams are tied for the 7/8 seed in the Eastern Conference, and are a half game behind Indiana for sixth and 2.5 games behind Orlando for fifth. Which makes tonight’s game very important for playoff positioning and avoiding the play-in round.

In what can be considered a fortuitous break in the schedule for the struggling Miami Heat, they got to play their last two games on the road against the lowly Detroit Pistons, who own the second-worst record in the NBA. Not surprisingly, Miami picked up two wins that ended a four-game losing streak. After defeating the Pistons 108-95 on Friday night, they needed a buzzer-beating three pointer from Bam Adebayo to win 104-101 yesterday. Philadelphia is coming off a 109-98 win against the fledgling Charlotte Hornets on Friday night as Tyrese Maxey scored a game-high 30 points for the 76ers. The Sixers had dropped five of six prior to that win. 

GAME STORYLINES: MIAMI

Last season, the Miami Heat finished the regular season with a somewhat disappointing 44-38 record. They finished 8th in Eastern Conference and needed a 4th quarter rally against the 10th seeded Chicago Bulls to advance past the play-in round and qualify for the playoffs. It appeared as if Miami would be easy pickings for the top seed Milwaukee Bucks, who owned the NBA’s best record at 58-24. But six-time All-Star Jimmy Butler activated “Playoff Jimmy” prior to Game 1 against Milwaukee and he was able to carry an undermanned Miami Heat squad all the way to the NBA Finals. 

Jimmy Butler’s epic playoff run last season began with him averaging a whopping 37.6 ppg on 59.7 percent shooting from the floor as Miami knocked off heavily favored Milwaukee 4-1 in the first round. Miami went on to defeat the Knicks in six games in round two and then outlasted the Boston Celtics in a grueling 7-game series to advance to NBA Finals. Miami would lose 4-1 to Denver in the Finals but Butler averaged 26.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.8 steals across 22 games in last year’s playoffs. He’s led Miami to the NBA Finals in two of the previous four seasons. 

Miami’s 2023-24 season is playing out in a very similar fashion as last season with the team finishing among the bottom four playoff teams. Injuries to Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro are big reasons why Miami finds themselves fighting for their lives to stay out of the play-in round again. Butler has missed 20 games due to foot, knee and calf injuries, while Herro has missed 31 games with multiple foot injuries. Herro hasn’t played since Feb. 23 and is not expected back anytime soon. Miami hopes to have him back before the end of the season. Butler (21.4 ppg) and Herro (20.8 ppg) are Miami’s two leading scorers.

All-Star center Bam Adebayo has been Miami’s most consistent and reliable regular season player over these past two seasons as Butler and Herro have missed a lot of games due to injury. The 26-year-old Adebayo is averaging 19.9 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.1 steals and 1 block on 51.1 percent shooting from the floor across 56 games. Adebayo made his third All-Star appearance last month and was a starter in place of injured 76ers center Joel Embiid. He was the first Miami player to start in an All-Star game since Dwayne Wade in 2016. 

Sharpshooter Duncan Robinson (13.4 pts, 3 asts, 45.5% from two, 40.1% from 3, 2.9 threes per game), rookie forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. (12.5 ppg, 4 rebs, 1.1 stls, 49.6% from 2) and forward Caleb Martin (10.6 pts, 4.7 rebs, 45.6% from 2, 39.6% from 3) have all been excellent in supporting roles this season for Miami. Robinson has played very well as a starter in place of Herro. He scored 30 points on 7-12 shooting from beyond the arc in yesterday’s win at Detroit. The 23-year-old rookie Jaquez joins a long list of unheralded rookie players who end up being key contributors for Miami. Jaquez was selected 18th overall in the first round of the draft by Miami and is now fourth among all rookies in scoring. He’s a lock to make the NBA’s All-Rookie First Team.

Miami added veteran guard Terry Rozier on Jan. 23 in an effort to improve their scoring. The 30-year-old Rozier has averaged around 20 ppg over his previous four seasons with the Charlotte Hornets. He was averaging career-highs of 23.2 ppg and 6.6 apg  in 30 games with Charlotte prior to the trade. Rozier is averaging 14.9 points, 5.4 assists and 4.5 rebounds in 19 games with Miami. 

GAME STORYLINES: PHILADELPHIA

Everything was going right for the Philadelphia 76ers through the first 42 games of the season. They had one of the best records in the NBA at 29-13 while reigning MVP Joel Embiid was averaging career highs of 35.3 points and 5.7 assists per contest, along with 11.3 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and 1.1 steals. He scored an astounding 70 points and grabbed 18 rebounds in a 133-123 win against visiting San Antonio on Jan. 22. Unfortunately, the 76ers season would take a turn for the worse soon after Embiid’s herculean 70-point game as he would suffer an injury to his meniscus in his left knee at Golden State on Jan. 30. Embiid has not played since then and he remains without a timetable for a return. Philadelphia has gone 8-13 without Embiid.

With Embiid out for the foreseeable future, Philadelphia has needed to rely on explosive, All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey. The 23-year-old Maxey is having his best season in year 4 as he’s averaging career-highs of 26 points, 6.2 assists, 3.7 assists and 1 steal, he’s also shooting 38.6 percent from beyond the arc. Maxey has scored 30 or more points in 5 of 9 games since the All-Star, he’s averaging 27.7 points, 4.7 assists, 4 rebounds, 3.3 threes and 1 steal over that span. Maxey missed four games earlier in the month with a concussion.  

Forwards Tobias Harris (17.1 pts, 6.2 rebs, 3.2 asts, 1.1 stls, 49% from 2) and Kelly Oubre Jr. (14.7 pts, 4.6 rebs, 1.1 stls) along with newly acquired veteran sharpshooter Buddy Hield (14.2 pts, 4.4 asts, 3.3 rebs, 1.6 stls, 41.1% from 3, 3.1 threes per game) are assisting Maxey with the scoring void caused by Embiid’s absence. Oubre has really elevated his scoring in the month of March with Maxey missing games and being inserted into the starting lineup. He’s averaging 20.5 points and 5.6 rebounds through 8 games this month. Hield was acquired from Indiana at the February trade deadline after slipping out of their regular rotation. His minutes and scoring are up in his 17 games as a 76er.

Centers Paul Reed (7.2 pts, 5.8 rebs, 1 blk) and Mo Bamba (3.8 rebs in 12.1 mpg) have taken turns starting at center while Embiid has been out. Reed has had more starts since he’s the more polished of the two, while the 25-year-old former lottery pick – No. 6 overall in 2018 – Bamba is the one with more athleticism and upside. Head coach Nick Nurse seems to let the opposing teams personnel and schemes dictate who starts at center for each game. 

THE PICK: 76ERS (-2.5)

I’m not buying into Miami’s 2 wins against a bad Detroit team and they may be worn out from playing a tough game yesterday, I think the 76ers knock them off here at home, Lay the points and take the 76ers!